Assessment Findings

Preliminary Appraisal

To avoid duplication in the assessment between the Preliminary and Detailed Appraisal, the findings of the SEA assessment at the Preliminary Appraisal stage are not included here but can be found in full in the Main Draft Environmental Report .

Detailed Appraisal: Cumulative Effects by Package

This section summarises the appraisal of the six packages and the Full Dualling AST in line with the 14 overarching SEA objectives considered. As the interventions included in each package will not be constructed in isolation, the following includes a summary of the environmental effects predicted for each package, across all SEA topics. A more detailed assessment summary is provided in the Main Draft Environmental Report

The Full Dualling of the A96 would be considered to have a cumulative major negative effect . There are opportunities to improve safety, for example through an increase in safe overtaking opportunities. There are also opportunities to improve placemaking, reduce traffic volumes in urban areas and improve accessibility. Minor positive effects were predicted for most of the Population and Human Health SEA objectives, for example due to improved placemaking and accessibility. Major positive effects were predicted for the safety SEA objective, mainly due to a prediction of lower traffic passing through urban areas. Many areas within the corridor could also benefit from improved climate adaptation. The infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to predicted impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions. However, as there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score was assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective.

There are still likely to be major negative effects on many environmental receptors. This is mainly due to the construction footprint on habitats, cultural heritage, water quality, soils and landscape. Major negative effects were also predicted for GHG emissions and local air quality due to construction activity and traffic emissions during the operational phase.

Overall, Package 1 is likely to have some positive environmental effects, although the likely significant negative effects from some of the physical works would result in the overall package having a cumulative moderate negative effect . This is mainly due to the construction of a series of bypasses and public transport and rail freight infrastructure improvements and their potential impact on the natural environment.

Overall, Package 2 is likely to have some positive environmental effects, particularly on air quality and population and human health SEA objectives, as the package promotes interventions that will enable a modal shift to more sustainable and active travel modes. The likely significant negative effects from some of the physical works would result in the package overall having a cumulative minor negative effect . This is mainly due to the construction of public transport infrastructure, rail freight and road safety improvements and their potential impact on the natural environment.

Overall, Package 3 is likely to have some positive environmental effects, particularly on air quality and population and human health objectives, as the package promotes interventions that will enable a modal shift to more sustainable and active travel modes. The likely significant negative effects from a number of the physical works, particularly the public transport infrastructure, rail freight and road safety improvements, would result in the package having a cumulative moderate negative effect.

Overall, Package 4 is likely to have some positive environmental effects, particularly on air quality and population and human health objectives, as the package promotes interventions that will enable a modal shift to more sustainable and active travel modes. The likely significant negative effects from a number of the physical works, particularly any public transport improvements, rail freight and road safety improvements and the introduction of new rail freight terminals would result in the package having a cumulative minor negative effect.

Overall, Package 5 is likely to have some positive environmental effects, particularly in terms of safety and quality of life. The likely significant negative effects from some of the physical works would result in the overall package having a cumulative moderate negative effect , mainly due to the creation of a series of bypasses, public transport, rail freight and road safety improvements and the introduction of new rail freight terminals.

The Refined Package is likely to have a cumulative minor negative effect . Moderate negative effects are predicted for natural resources and biodiversity, whereas minor negative effects are predicted for air quality, water quality, cultural heritage, and landscape and visual amenity. Due to the predicted GHG increases associated with constructing and operating transport infrastructure, a minor negative cumulative effect is predicted for the GHG SEA objective. As there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score has been assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective. There are also many minor positive environmental effects predicted, including quality of life and sustainable access, high quality places and sustainable transport networks. Moderate positive effects were predicted for the safety SEA objective. These positive effects mainly arise through targeted road safety improvements, the provision of high-quality active travel routes within and between settlements and various bus and rail improvements.

The likely minor and moderate negative effects are likely to arise from some of the physical works, mainly due to the creation of two bypasses and their potential impact on the natural environment.

The environmental impacts of any of the proposed packages would vary according to the degree of potential localised negative environmental effects from any new interventions implemented to achieve the package.

Detailed Appraisal: Cumulative Effects by SEA Topic

The Refined Package represents the better performing transport interventions from the STAG appraisal in comparison to Packages 1 to 5. This includes the appraisal of the ‘environment’ STAG criterion. Only one of the Packages, or Full Dualling, would actually be implemented. To avoid any duplication in the assessment of cumulative effects, this section therefore focuses on the potentially significant cumulative effects of implementing either the Refined Package or Full Dualling.

The sections below summarise the potential cumulative effects, on each SEA topic for the Refined Package or Full Dualling packages. The construction works associated with different transport interventions would also likely be spread over a number of years and the environmental effects may therefore not be concurrent or cumulative. The scale of the effects of these proposals on the various SEA topics will depend on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as the designs progress.

Refined Package Cumulative Effects on Climatic Factors

Traffic flows and emissions around the A96 increase as a result of this package, due to reduced congestion and an attraction of traffic onto this part of the network. There is therefore a net increase in GHG emissions. These will combine to increase overall vehicle kilometres, resulting in a net increase in GHG emissions.

The existing A96 Trunk Road is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas with a high risk of flooding or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated.

The infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to predicted impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions, and designed in accordance with current planning, design, engineering practice, and codes. A number of mitigation and adaptation measures would be considered at later design development stages to address potential risks.

Traffic flows and emissions around the A96 are likely to increase due to a combination of reduced congestion, which potentially attracts traffic to the route, and an increase in route length. These will combine to increase overall vehicle kilometres, resulting in a net increase in GHG emissions. GHG emissions are predicted to decrease between the opening and design year due to an increase in low emission vehicle kilometres travelled across the whole modelled traffic network.

The existing A96 Trunk Road network is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas with a high risk of flooding or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated.

Due to the predicted GHG increases associated with constructing and operating transport infrastructure, a minor negative cumulative effect is predicted for the GHG SEA objective and an uncertain cumulative effect is predicted for the climate adaptation SEA objective.

Refined Package Cumulative Effects on Air Quality

The Refined Package has the potential to have negative effects in terms of air quality. The bypasses may result in an increase in the use of private vehicles due to the reduction in congestion, which may lead to a reduction in air quality in the vicinity of the bypass alignments and the wider A96 corridor.

The promotion of vehicles with lower or zero emissions through the inclusion of alternative refueling infrastructure and facilities should help to reduce vehicle emissions and thereby reduce overall air pollution. The inclusion of bypasses has the potential to reduce existing air quality concerns within the settlements of Elgin and Keith by reducing the traffic passing through them.

Total emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) were predicted to increase in the future. This is due to an increase in vehicle kilometres and associated emissions, in particular through the construction and operation of bypasses. The increase in PM is predominantly due to non-exhaust emissions from road, tyre and brake-wear.

Traffic is predicted to divert away from areas of Elgin and Keith due to the potential interventions. By reducing the traffic through Elgin and Keith, there is also an opportunity to increase the active travel opportunities within these settlements. This could further reduce the use of private vehicles, with a positive effect on air quality.

A minor negative cumulative effect is predicted for the air quality SEA objective.

Refined Package Cumulative Effects on Population and Human Health

Quality of life and sustainable access

The packages could directly improve access to local infrastructure that would improve health and wellbeing. This is a result of improved active travel provision, improved public transport interchanges and improving the journey time and frequency of rail services.

The proposals within this package are also likely to have positive effects in terms of communities and physical fitness. The interventions could see a modal shift to sustainable transport methods including bus, rail, walking and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these methods would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services, employment opportunities and health care.

A moderate positive cumulative effect is predicted for the quality of life and sustainable access SEA objective under the topic of Population and Human Health.

Noise and vibration

This package has the potential to have negative effects on noise and vibration through the increase of freight on the railway and any associated rail freight facilities. The significance of the effect would depend on the location of such facilities.

An uncertain cumulative effect is predicted for the noise and vibration SEA objective for Population and Human Health. This is due to a combination of positive and negative impacts predicted, depending on location and the ways in which the transport interventions might be implemented.

High quality places

Enhanced placemaking, along with reducing demand for unsustainable travel for shorter everyday trips, would also offer improvements to visual amenity in some communities. An improved public realm with less through-traffic allows people to gather and socialise.

A minor positive cumulative effect is predicted for the placemaking (high quality places) SEA objective under the topic of Population and Human Health.

Safety

Personal security is likely to improve through an increase in people walking, wheeling and cycling in and around key communities along the A96 corridor as there would be an increase in natural surveillance. Furthermore, public realm improvements, such as the provision of street lighting, can help reduce road traffic collisions and increase pedestrian activity due to a reduced fear of crime.

Public transport interchange improvements and DRT/MaaS may improve personal security and make a safer network for travellers. It may also help those with mobility issues travel, thereby reducing social isolation by allowing trips to be made more easily.

A moderate positive cumulative effect is predicted for the safety SEA objective under the topic of Population and Human Health.

Material Assets

Sustainable transport

There is potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes). There is also potential opportunity for road schemes to improve surface conditions and improve safety. Reducing overall maintenance needs in the longer-term, could also lead to fewer disruptions to the transport network, as road closures and maintenance activities would be reduced.

A minor positive cumulative effect is predicted for the Material Assets (sustainable transport network) SEA objective.

Natural resources

There is a potential opportunity for road schemes to improve surface conditions, and, alongside advancement in the types of materials used, reduce overall maintenance needs in the longer-term. More durable and sustainable materials therefore have the potential to reduce natural resources requirements.

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure, there is potential for negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage.

A moderate negative cumulative effect is predicted for the Material Assets (natural resources) SEA objective.

Water Environment

The construction works have the potential for significant negative effects on the water environment. The physical works, including improving public transport interchanges, linespeed improvements and increasing passenger and freight capacity have the potential to have negative effects on water quality (risk of surface water drainage pollution) and flooding during the construction phase.

Construction works have the potential to cause moderate negative environmental effects, given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect the water environment. For the continuous active travel route, following the current A96 route may help to reduce negative effects on the water environment.

The magnitude of environmental effects will depend on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as the designs progress. There are potentially adverse environmental effects on drainage and flooding, which could be significant if environmental designations are affected.

A minor negative cumulative effect is predicted for the water environment SEA objective.

Biodiversity

The construction of the interventions has the potential to have negative effects on biodiversity, landscape and forestry. This includes potential effects on local, national and internationally designated habitats. These effects could be moderate negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with the construction of the interventions.

The magnitude of environmental effects will depend on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as the designs progress. There is potential for negative environmental effects on biodiversity, particularly if designated biodiversity sites are affected – for example through surface water drainage or dust deposition during construction.

A moderate negative cumulative effect is predicted for the biodiversity SEA objective.

Geology and Soils

The physical works associated with the construction of the interventions have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint, including high grade agricultural land, Geological Conservation Review sites, carbon-rich soils and peat.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

A minor negative cumulative effect is predicted for the geology and soils SEA objective.

Cultural Heritage

The construction of the bypasses and other construction works within this package have the potential to have negative effects on cultural heritage. These effects could be minor negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with the interventions.

The physical works, including improving public transport interchanges, linespeed improvements and increasing passenger and freight capacity has the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects on cultural heritage. However, these effects may be limited considering there are no cultural heritage designations in the areas of the transport interventions. The physical works also have potential for negative effects on undesignated cultural heritage features and/or archaeology which may be discovered during construction.

A minor negative cumulative effect is predicted for the cultural heritage SEA objective.

Landscape and Visual Amenity

The interventions, including bypasses and improvements to public transport interchanges, have the potential to have negative effects on landscape and visual amenity. These effects could be minor negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these interventions.

The physical works associated with the other interventions are likely to have negative environmental effects of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. Some of these impacts may be short term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated. Construction activities associated with rail improvements have the potential to result in some negative effects. However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no landscape or other environmental designations in the areas of the rail-based interventions.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some development types within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with several paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where visual effects could occur.

A minor negative cumulative effect is predicted for the landscape and visual amenity SEA objective.

Full Dualling Package Cumulative Effects on Climatic Factors

Due to the predicted GHG increases associated with constructing and operating transport infrastructure, a major negative cumulative effect is predicted for the GHG SEA objective and an uncertain cumulative effect is predicted for the climate adaptation SEA objective.

Full Dualling Cumulative Effects on Air Quality

Full Dualling has the potential to have positive effects on air quality. The inclusion of bypasses has the potential to improve the existing air quality within the settlements of Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie by reducing the traffic passing through them. However, it may result in an increase in private vehicle usage due to the reduction in congestion, which may lead to a reduction in air quality in the vicinity of the bypass alignments and indeed the wider A96 corridor itself.

It should be noted that the assessment assumes no change in pollutant emissions, per vehicle, beyond 2030 and therefore represents a worst-case approach.

A minor negative cumulative effect is predicted for the air quality SEA objective.

Full Dualling Cumulative Effects on Population and Human Health

Quality of life and sustainable access

Full Dualling is likely to have positive effects in terms of communities and physical fitness. The network improvements could reduce disruption and congestion and increase accessibility, including access to services. The inclusion of the bypasses could lead to improvements in quality of life and accessibility for Elgin, Keith and Inverurie through removing some of the through traffic from the network.

The packages are also likely to have positive effects for communities and physical fitness. The interventions could see a modal shift to sustainable transport methods including bus, rail, walking and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these methods would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services, employment opportunities and health care.

A minor positive cumulative effect is predicted for the quality of life and sustainable access SEA objective under the topic of Population and Human Health.

Noise and vibration

Full Dualling has the potential to alleviate noise and vibration within the settlements, depending on the alignment of the dual carriageway, as it is assumed that dualling is likely to bypass settlements. Full dualling is likely to result in greater noise impacts in proximity to its alignment. The significance of these effects would depend on the preferred alignment and its proximity to sensitive receptors, although noise mitigation could be incorporated. The construction of interventions included in this package and associated traffic are also likely to lead to minor negative effects on noise and vibration during the construction phase.

High quality places

Where the alignment of the dual carriageway results in the provision of bypasses, Full Dualling provides the opportunity to deliver interventions within towns to enhance placemaking and reduce real and perceived severance, reducing demand for unsustainable travel, particularly for shorter everyday trips. Enhanced placemaking, along with reducing demand for unsustainable travel for shorter everyday trips, would also offer improvements to visual amenity in some communities. An improved public realm with less through-traffic allows people to gather and socialise.

A minor positive cumulative effect is predicted for the development of high quality places SEA objective.

Safety

The provision of a dual carriageway and an increase in safe overtaking opportunities between Hardmuir and Craibstone would result in the safer operation of the network and reduced accident rates and severity. This is particularly relevant at locations where there is a safety problem or a potential safety risk. Personal security is likely to improve through an increase in people walking, wheeling and cycling in and around key communities along the A96 corridor as there would be an increase in natural surveillance. Furthermore, public realm improvements, such as the provision of street lighting, can help reduce road traffic collisions and increase pedestrian activity due to a reduced fear of crime.

The improvement in safety would likely result in reduced accident rates and severity as well as a reduction in driver stress, through the provision of safe overtaking opportunities.

A major positive cumulative effect is predicted for the safety SEA objective under the topic of Population and Human Health.

Material Assets

Sustainable transport

Full Dualling has the potential for major negative impacts on the sustainable transport SEA objective as dualling could potentially lead to increased vehicle traffic and associated negative impacts on several SEA topics such as climate (GHG emissions), air quality, noise and vibration, water quality and flood risk, biodiversity, cultural heritage and landscape.

However, there is a potential opportunity for road schemes to improve surface conditions, and, alongside advancement in the types of materials used, reduce overall maintenance needs in the longer-term, with associated positive effects. The full dualling option also has potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network by promoting or improving the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes).

Bearing the potential negative and positive effects in mind, Full Dualling was assessed to have a moderate negative cumulative effect on the sustainable transport SEA Objective.

Natural resources

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure associated with several of the proposed interventions, there is potential for major negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage.

A major negative cumulative effect is predicted for the natural resources SEA Material Assets objective.

Water Environment

Full Dualling has the potential for significant negative effects on water, drainage and flooding. There are large areas of floodplain around Elgin associated with the River Lossie, some of which have flood mitigation. There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. There are also areas of flood risk around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don. The construction of the new dual carriageway also has the potential to have a negative impact on water quality of these watercourses and consideration would be needed as to the alignment in terms of water crossings and bridge design.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would depend on the design and location of the works. These have the potential to have adverse environmental effects on water drainage and flooding which could be significant particularly if environmental designations are affected.

Full Dualling was assessed to have a major negative cumulative effect on the water quality and flood risk SEA Objective.

Biodiversity

Due to the overall scale of the required infrastructure, Full Dualling has the potential to have major negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, and forestry. Such impacts could either be direct such as demolition/land loss/habitat loss, or indirect such as impacts on setting or views and would depend on the alignment of the dualling. The A96 corridor and its surroundings, contain various local, regional, national, and international designated sites, the impacts on which would need to be considered. Depending on the alignment of the Full Dualling option, there could be significant effects on the environment given the scale of works which would likely be irreversible particularly given the sensitive locations along the existing route.

The scale of the effects will depend on the design and alignment of the dualling and further detailed environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as part of any further option development.

Full Dualling was assessed to have a major negative cumulative effect on the biodiversity SEA Objective.

Geology and Soils

Soils are important for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They also provide important ecosystem services such as crop production, pollutant filtration, water retention and protection of archaeological resources.

Due to the overall scale of the full dual carriageway option, this package has the potential to have major negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint, including high grade agricultural land, Geological Conservation Review sites, carbon rich soils and peat.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

Full Dualling was assessed to have a major negative cumulative effect on the soils SEA Objective.

Cultural Heritage

Due to the overall scale of the required infrastructure, Full Dualling has the potential to have major negative effects on the historic environment. Such impacts could either be direct such as demolition/land loss or indirect such as impacts on setting or views and would depend on the alignment of the dualling. The A96 corridor and its surroundings, contain various local, regional, national, and international designated sites, the impact on which would need to be considered. Depending on the alignment of the Full Dualling option, there could be significant effects on designated and undesignated cultural heritage assets given the scale of works, which would likely be irreversible particularly given the sensitive locations along the existing route. This includes, but is not exclusive to, potential impacts on Gardens and Designed Landscapes, Conservation Areas, Historic Battlefields Sites and Scheduled Monuments.

The scale of the effects will depend on the design and alignment of the dualling and further detailed environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as part of any further option development.

Full Dualling was assessed to have a major negative cumulative effect on the cultural heritage SEA Objective.

Landscape and Visual Amenity

Due to the overall scale of the required infrastructure, Full Dualling has the potential to have adverse effects on landscape. Such impacts could either be direct such as demolition/land loss/loss of vegetation or indirect such as impacts on setting or views and would depend on the alignment of the dualling. The A96 corridor and its surroundings, contain various local, regional, national, and international designated sites, the impacts on which would need to be considered. Depending on the alignment of the full dualling option, there could be significant effects on the environment given the scale of works which would likely be irreversible particularly given the sensitive locations along the existing route.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some types of development within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with numerous paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where there is the potential for visual effects to occur.

The scale of the effects associated with the full dualling of the A96 will be dependent on the design and alignment of the dualling and further detailed environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as part of any further option development.

Full Dualling was assessed to have a major negative cumulative effect on the landscape SEA Objective.

Summary of Cumulative Effects Assessment

In general the Refined Package has fewer negative effects and lower magnitude negative effects than Full Dualling in terms of potentially significant cumulative effects. This reflects the fact that the Refined Package was developed specifically to maximise the level of potential benefits provided by combining the best performing options from Packages 1 to 5. Both the Refined Package and Full Dualling have positive effects predicted for the Population and Human Health topics, for example due to targeted road safety improvements. However, the considerable amount of land-take, raw materials requirements and GHG emissions associated with constructing a fully dualled road for the entire corridor length has led to Full Dualling being assessed as having major or moderate negative effects for most of the SEA Objectives. In contrast, the Refined Package was assessed to be likely to lead to minor negative effects for most SEA Objectives, albeit with moderate negative effects predicted for natural resources and biodiversity due to the raw material demand and land-take associated with constructing the Refined Package bypasses.

In-Combination Assessment

As stated in the UK Government SEA Guidance, “Cumulative effects arise, for instance, where several developments each have insignificant effects but together have a significant effect; or where several individual effects of the plan (for example noise, dust and visual) have a combined effect”.

Cumulative effects on an SEA topic can arise from the combined effects of plans. For example, proposals along a linear route, such as a transport corridor, may cumulatively affect the landscape qualities experienced along that route.

The Local Development Plans (LDPs) relevant to the Nairn, Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie settlements have been reviewed to establish site allocations of proposed development on the periphery of the settlements, in order to identify land covered by housing policy and possible future planned large-area housing developments that need highlighting when assessing potential cumulative impacts. To focus on the development applications that are most likely to lead to significant in-combination effects, only plans to build 100 homes or more are referred to in the main Draft Environmental Report ⁶ .

The in-combination effects between the A96 Corridor Review and these other plans and projects are likely to affect all of the SEA topics but will vary considerably depending on the timing of construction of each. Some effects, such as construction stage noise and vibration and air pollution are likely to be negative, but there may also be positive in-combination outcomes, for example related to improved safety or improved active travel connections. More in-depth, in-combination assessments for all environmental topics will be required at the project level, when transport interventions included in the A96 Corridor Review are being taken forward to the design stage. Screening for the Environmental Impact Assessment will be required at that stage.

Assessment Summary

The results of the SEA matrix-based assessment showed that the Refined Package and Packages 2 and 4 are likely to have the lowest impact on the environment overall, with cumulative minor negative effects predicted. By comparison, Packages 1, 3 and 5 were assessed to lead to cumulative moderate negative effects and Full Dualling was assessed to potentially lead to major negative effects.

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