Preliminary Appraisal Summary Table - Keith Bypass

Preliminary Appraisal Summary

Option Description

Keith Bypass

This option focuses on improving the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 Trunk Road within the vicinity of Keith through the provision of a bypass of the town. Keith is shown within the context of the wider A96 Trunk Road in Figure 1.1. Note that due to this being at an early stage of the process, the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) appraisal does not define the location, route or standard of the bypass.

The existing A96 Trunk Road passes through Keith from the town’s western boundary at the A95 Haughs Road/A96 Bridge of Haughs priority junction, to the Denwell Road/A96 priority junction at the towns eastern boundary. Within Keith, A96 traffic is required to negotiate a number of priority junctions, in addition to numerous accesses providing entry to commercial, educational, and industrial units and/or residential properties, as well as a signalised junction and a signalised pedestrian crossing.

The existing A96 Trunk Road through Keith is largely single carriageway, with footways along the majority of the route. The speed limit through the town is 30mph. Outside of the town’s boundary, the road is subject to the national speed limit.

This option would help to improve the reliability and resilience of the A96 Trunk Road through reducing the impacts of accidents, as well as supporting access to tourism sites across the region (particularly in the whisky industry) and employment opportunities. This option is also likely to act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within Keith whilst delivering a safety improvement.

Relevance

Relevant to all road users in the corridor

The A96 Trunk Road plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland. The provision of a bypass at Keith is likely to improve connectivity between certain origin and destinations within the region by bypassing the existing A96 Trunk Road within the town, avoiding interaction with local traffic and junctions. This would also allow freight to move more effectively. Therefore, a bypass within the vicinity of Keith could help reduce costs to business, including the food and drink sector, and contribute to economic growth.

This option supports Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ( Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ) , which sets out the Scottish Government’s vision to creating a more successful country through a wellbeing economy, noting the requirement to thrive across the economic, social and environmental dimensions. This option has the potential to support the reliability and resilience of the network for communities and businesses by reducing the impact of accidents on the network. A high quality, well maintained and efficient trunk road network also supports other Scottish Government programmes for active travel, development of connected and autonomous vehicle infrastructure and bus priority investment, and thereby contributes to the low carbon economy.

Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 sets out the vision for Scotland to have the best road safety performance in the world by 2030 and the long-term goal of Vision Zero where there are zero fatalities and serious injuries on Scotland’s roads by 2050 with ambitious interim targets for the number of people killed or seriously injured to be halved by 2030 ( Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 ) .  The framework is aligned with the Second National Transport Strategy (NTS2) and embeds the Safe System approach to road safety delivery, which consists of five key pillars focusing efforts not only on road traffic casualty reduction (vulnerability of the casualties) but also on road traffic danger reduction (sources of the danger).

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 Trunk Road is lower than the national average ( STATS19 Road Safety Data ) ; however, Personal Injury Accident (PIA) rates between 2015 and 2019 for the A96 through Keith have been identified as higher than corresponding accident rates for Built-Up Trunk A-roads in Scotland (12.1 per million vehicle kilometres (MVKm)) at 22.4 accidents per MVKm ( Reported Road Casualties Scotland table 5(b) ) . The Killed or Seriously Injured (KSI) accident rate is also significantly higher than the national average (2.6 per MVKm) for routes of a similar type at 12.8 accidents per MVKm.

As the A96 Trunk Road bisects the town and community, there are real and perceived safety issues that act as a barrier to active travel within Keith. The provision of a Keith bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic passing through Keith, which should in turn reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents on the existing A96 through Keith. As such, this option would contribute to Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 supporting Vision Zero.

Estimated Cost

£101m - £250m Capital

Determining the estimated cost of this option is dependent on a number of factors including the scale and complexity of the bypass and specific local constraints that would require further examination and assessment at the stages of design development, a level of detail beyond that which is undertaken as part of a STAG appraisal.

As a result, the STAG appraisal does not define the location or route of the bypass, although it has been assumed that the approximate length will range from 2.5km to 15km. The category of road for the bypass and the number and type of junctions have also not been defined at this stage.

Considering the assumed range for the approximate length of the bypass, the total estimated cost is expected to fall within the range of £101m - £250m.

In addition to construction costs, Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion and is therefore anticipated to take on the operation and maintenance of the bypass, which would have ongoing costs associated with it.

Position in Sustainable Hierarchies

Sustainable Investment Hierarchy / Sustainable Travel Hierarchy

Within the Sustainable Investment Hierarchy, this option sits within ‘targeted infrastructure improvements’. This option would also sit within the ‘private car’ tier of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy.

This option would also contribute to eight of the 12 NTS2 outcomes as follows:

• Provide fair access to services we need
• Help deliver net zero target
• Adapt to the effects of climate change
• Get people and goods to where they need to get to
• Be reliable, efficient, and high quality
• Use beneficial innovation
• Be safe and secure for all
• Help make our communities great places to live.

Summary Rationale

Summary of Appraisal

This option makes a generally positive contribution to most of the A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs), STAG criteria and Statutory Impact Assessment (SIA) criteria. This option is expected to perform particularly well against TPO5 providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system, and the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion as the bypass would remove strategic trips from the town where there is a noted accident problem. However, it is expected that there would be negative impacts as a result from this option in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, specifically considering the STAG Environment criterion.

This option also offers the opportunity to enhance community cohesion and placemaking by addressing the severance associated with a busy trunk road bisecting a community. In turn, this could increase the attractiveness of shorter everyday trips undertaken by active modes. As such, a minor positive impact is anticipated for TPO3 associated with enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment. A moderate positive impact is anticipated for the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion with further minor positive impacts for the STAG Equality and Accessibility criterion, as well as all three of the SIAs for Equality, Children’s Rights and Wellbeing and Fairer Scotland Duty.

Although the Keith bypass could remove some noise and air pollution from the town, the physical impact of construction could negatively impact the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity, with an overall moderate negative impact expected for the STAG Environment criterion in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. In the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario specifically where traffic demand is likely to be higher with greater vehicle kilometres travelled, the option is expected to have a minor negative impact against TPO1 regarding contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets, and the STAG Climate Change criterion.

Delivery of the bypass is considered feasible at this stage; however, a detailed assessment would require to be undertaken to fully establish the details of the bypass including the optimal corridor and junction strategy. Although a bypass of Keith is considered to be affordable at this stage, capital costs are also highly dependent on the potential length and route a bypass may take. A reasonable level of support for the option from the public is anticipated due to the potential safety improvements and reliability benefits for through traffic.

Although the bypass as a standalone intervention does not perform particularly well against two of the TPOs and the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria, it would act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within Keith; the removal of traffic from the A96 within the town would present an opportunity for delivering sustainable travel measures and/or placemaking through the reallocation of roadspace.

It is recommended that this option is taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Details behind this summary are discussed in Section 3.

Context

Problems and Opportunities

This option could help to address the following problem and opportunity themes. Further detail on the identified problems and opportunities is provided in the published A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ( A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ) .

Relevant Problem and Opportunity Themes Identified in the A96 Corridor Review Case for Change

Safety and Resilience : From the analysis of accident data, the rural sections of the A96 Trunk Road have overall PIA rates lower than or similar to the national average based on all trunk A-roads of the equivalent type. There are, however, selected urban sections of the A96 Trunk Road that show an accident rate higher than the national average, with specific locations in Keith. The rate of KSIs is also significantly higher in Keith than the national average.

The A96 Trunk Road is affected by closures and delays due to accidents, maintenance and weather events. Recommended diversion routes can be lengthy throughout the corridor, up to approximately 65km depending on where the closure occurs. The economic impact of closures can be significant for HGVs and the movement of goods.

Socio-Economic and Location of Services: Employment and other key services tend to be found in the three most populous and key economic locations within the study area: Aberdeen, Inverness and Elgin. Considering the travel distances between these three key economic centres and the other settlements in the transport appraisal study area, travelling by sustainable modes is relatively unattractive.

The key economic centres contain essential facilities such as major hospitals as well as a much greater density of education facilities. In addition, almost half of the total jobs in the transport appraisal study area are found within these three locations. Outside of these three areas, people making a trip to a workplace are more likely to travel over 10km, therefore limiting the potential for active travel.

Health and Environment : Transport is a major contributor to CO ₂ emissions along the A96 corridor, particularly in the Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas. Transport contributes over 35% of the total emissions in both Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas and between 25% and 30% in Aberdeen City and Moray. This is potentially an outcome of the high dependence on cars for travel, long travel distances and the levels of road-based freight movements.

The route of the A96 travels through the centre of towns along the corridor such as Elgin and Keith, which puts a relatively large proportion of the population in close proximity to potential noise pollution and pollutants from transport emissions that affect local air quality.

Sustainable Economic Growth: There is an opportunity to support and enhance sustainable economic growth across the transport appraisal study area. The key industries in the region, including food and drink production and agriculture, forestry and fishing have a high proportion of goods movement, as evidenced through the relatively high proportion of HGVs on the A96. A shift to alternative sustainable transport modes could improve journey time reliability, resulting in economic and environmental benefits, with trials being undertaken in recent years to increase the proportion of rail freight movements.

The transport appraisal study area has shown growth in tourism spend in recent years with the rise of whisky tourism and the Speyside Whisky Trail being major components of the economy in this sector. There are opportunities to change the way in which visitors travel to and from the region, and around it. Walking and cycling tourism is one such opportunity and has the potential to create further economic growth by attracting new visitors to the region.

Improving Safety: There is the opportunity to reduce the number and severity of accidents on the A96 Trunk Road on those sections where the PIA and/or KSI accident rates are high when compared to the national average for equivalent urban or rural trunk A-roads. Improving safety for road users would contribute to meeting the targets set out in Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 to achieve the 50% reduction in people killed or seriously injured (60% reduction for children). Reducing the level of car-based kilometres travelled would also contribute to a reduction in accident numbers.

Interdependencies

This option has potential overlap with other A96 Corridor Review options and would also complement other areas of Scottish Government activity.

Other A96 Corridor Review Options

• Targeted Road Safety Improvements
• Active Communities
• Active Connections;
• Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride
• Development of A96 Electric Corridor.

Other areas of Scottish Government activity

• Bus Partnership Fund ( Bus Partnership Fund )
• Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 ( Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 )
• Climate Change Plan 2018-32 Update ( Securing a green recovery on a path to net zero: climate change plan 2018–2032 - update )
• Infrastructure Investment Plan 2021/22 – 2025/26 (IIP) ( Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-26 )
• National Transport Strategy (NTS2) ( National Transport Strategy: Protecting Our Climate and Improving Our Lives )
• National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4) ( National Planning Framework 4 )
• The Place Principle ( Place Principle: Introduction )
• Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ( Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation )
• Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 ( Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 )
• Strategic Road Safety Plan (2016) ( Strategic Road Safety Plan )
• Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2) ( Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2) ) .

Appraisal

Appraisal Overview

This section provides an assessment of the option against:

• A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives
• STAG criteria
• Deliverability criteria
• Statutory Impact Assessment criteria.

The seven-point assessment scale has been used to indicate the impact of the option when considered under the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ Travel Behaviour scenarios (which are described in Appendix A of the Transport Appraisal Report).

Transport Planning Objectives

1. A sustainable strategic transport corridor that contributes to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.

Traffic data from the A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM) (Transport Scotland, LATIS, A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM).) (2019 Base Year) indicates that between 60% and 70% of eastbound traffic and between 65% and 75% of westbound traffic travelling on the A96 at Keith is through traffic (depending on the peak period), with up to 91% of heavy goods vehicles (HGV) traffic along the A96 passing through the town. Through traffic, and particularly HGVs, can increase perceived safety issues which can act as a barrier to active travel. Removing this traffic (including the number of HGVs) through the provision of a bypass is therefore likely to contribute to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target through the reduction of slow moving or stationary traffic, whilst also improving the attractiveness of sustainable modes of travel, particularly for shorter distance journeys.

The option would likely act as a key enabler to maximise sustainable transport and placemaking within Keith, enhancing the opportunity to encourage a shift from car-based travel to sustainable modes, particularly for shorter distance journeys. This is likely to be achieved through creating environments that are more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, and by increasing the priority for public transport services, resulting in a positive contribution to this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

However, a bypass would provide additional road space and therefore increase capacity for motorised vehicles, potentially inducing travel demand. Whilst congestion is not currently a significant issue within Keith, if it were to become an issue in the future, it would be under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario rather than the ’With Policy’ Scenario. The provision of a bypass would provide an alternative route to avoid any congestion within the town, which could result in more road-based trips, therefore increasing transport-based emissions. This option therefore has the potential to have a negative impact under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario and neutral impact under the ’With Policy’ Scenario on transport-based emissions.

While a bypass does not necessarily facilitate a modal shift to more sustainable modes, it does help support the provision of a safe, efficient, and reliable trunk road network which is integral to wider Scottish Government programmes relating to active travel and bus priority investment. On balance, the provision of a bypass at Keith is scored as neutral under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and minor negative under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario against this objective.

2. An inclusive strategic transport system that improves the accessibility of public transport in rural areas for access to healthcare, employment, and education.

The frequency and integration of public transport services is a problem along the corridor, and within the vicinity of Keith, which is highlighted by the reliance on private vehicle use and by higher than average car ownership levels (73%) in the town ( 2011 Census (Scotland) ) . This is due to the largely rural nature of the region, where providing public transport can be a challenge due to dispersed population and settlement patterns. The provision of a bypass would likely offer benefits to local services through the reduction of traffic flows within Keith particularly as, relative to other towns along the A96, Keith has higher levels of travel to work by bus. Benefits would be anticipated for longer distance limited stop bus services that would likely travel on the bypass for efficient movement between Aberdeen and Inverness.

A bypass at Keith is unlikely to have a direct impact on service frequency and coverage and is therefore not anticipated to have a notable impact on issues relating to the accessibility of public transport services, which are linked to wider issues related to the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in the area.

Overall, the options are anticipated to have a neutral impact on this objective in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

3. A coherent strategic transport corridor that enhances communities as places, supporting health and wellbeing.

Traffic data from the A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year) indicates that between 60% and 70% of eastbound traffic and between 65% and 75% of westbound traffic travelling on the A96 at Keith is through traffic (depending on the peak period), with up to 91% of HGV traffic along the A96 passing through the town. The traffic, therefore, is largely comprised of through traffic, increasing severance in the town, which can create a barrier to active travel and detract from the sense of place. The provision of a bypass at Keith is anticipated to remove up to 70% of eastbound peak period traffic and 75% of westbound peak period traffic from the existing A96 (ANPR Origin Destination Survey undertaken on behalf of Moray Council in June 2017.), including the majority of HGVs, providing the opportunity to enhance the sense of place as a key enabler to maximise sustainable transport and placemaking within Keith.

A bypass is anticipated to remove through traffic from within Keith, providing the opportunity to deliver interventions within towns to enhance placemaking, reducing demand for unsustainable travel, particularly for shorter everyday trips. In doing so, the provision of a bypass could do more than remove through trips from the town. By facilitating the transition to sustainable modes, a bypass could further reduce traffic volumes within Keith, enhancing the sense of place and supporting health and wellbeing.

In addition to the potential benefits mentioned above, the removal of through trips by providing a bypass at Keith could reduce the real and perceived severance caused by the strategic road network within the town. The option is scored to have a minor positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as it would enable the inclusion of infrastructure to encourage mode shift, enhancing the community as a place.

4. An integrated strategic transport system that contributes towards sustainable inclusive growth throughout the corridor and beyond.

The A96 plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland, connecting people to employment and education opportunities as well as providing businesses with access to the labour market. The provision of a bypass of Keith is likely to improve connectivity between certain origin and destinations within the region by bypassing the existing A96 within the town, removing the need to travel through a section of reduced speed limit and negotiate numerous local junctions. Although many people within and around Keith commute towards Aberdeen or Elgin for work ( 2011 Census (Scotland) Location of usual residence and place of work by method of travel to work ) , the town is home to three large whisky distilleries (Strathmill Distillery, Strathisla Distillery and Glen Keith Distillery) and a large steel fabricator (W R Simmers Ltd), therefore some road users would remain on the existing A96 and this route may become more free flowing following the introduction of a bypass.

Keith has been recognised as a ‘tertiary growth area’ in the region, due to the identification of strategic employment land which could support economic growth and attract inward investment ( Moray Local Development Plan ) . The town is well established in the whisky industry, whilst also being an important location in the renewable energy sector, with the recent construction of the Keith Greener Energy Grid Park ( Keith Greener Grid Park ) .

A bypass of Keith could support sustainable inclusive growth by improving the efficiency of the movement of goods along the corridor as a result of potential reliability improvements on the trunk road network, which could support opportunities for employment and business growth. The removal of through trips from the town could alleviate congestion for those travelling to Keith for employment. Whilst the majority of the benefits would likely be experienced by those who have access to a vehicle, the removal of through trips provides the opportunity to deliver interventions within towns to enhance placemaking, making active and sustainable modes more attractive and therefore reducing demand for unsustainable travel, particularly for shorter everyday trips.

The removal of through trips could also provide opportunities to enhance placemaking within Keith, enhancing the local economy by providing more attractive surroundings which encourages increased footfall. However, some economic benefits could be negated if reducing through traffic negatively impacts communities as a result of a reduction in passing trade.

Overall, a bypass at Keith is expected to have a minor positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios due to the improved confidence in the trunk road network provided for rural and remote communities and for the opportunity to provide measures to enhance access to labour markets, suppliers, and customers along the A96 corridor.

5. A reliable and resilient strategic transport corridor that is safe for users.

Generally, the accident rate (2015-2019) on the A96 is lower than the national average ; however, PIA rates between 2015 and 2019 for the A96 through Keith have been identified as higher than corresponding accident rates for Built-up Trunk A-roads in Scotland (12.1 accidents per MVKm) at 22.4 accidents per MVKm . The KSI accident rate is also significantly higher than the national average (2.6 accidents per MVKm) for routes of a similar type at 12.8 accidents per MVKm.

The provision of a Keith bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic passing through Keith by up to 70% eastbound and 75% westbound during peak periods from the existing A96 (ANPR Origin Destination Survey undertaken on behalf of Moray Council in June 2017.), including up to 91% of HGVs . This, in turn, could reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents on the A96 through Keith. The provision of a bypass would also remove the need for through traffic to pass through numerous at-grade junctions within Keith, reducing conflict and the potential for accidents, whilst also improving the reliability of the strategic transport corridor.

Evaluations of road schemes following the Scottish Trunk Road Infrastructure Project Evaluation (STRIPE) framework provide an illustration of the potential benefits, as illustrated by the 3-year-after-opening project evaluations for the following scheme:

• A68(T) Dalkeith Bypass saw a reduction in the number of accidents within Dalkeith by approximately 30% after opening ( Scottish Trunk Road Infrastructure Project Evaluation: 3YA Evaluation Report for A68(T) Dalkeith Bypass ) . Additionally, the severity of accidents occurring within the town reduced.

Overall, a bypass at Keith would have a moderate positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, with the positive impacts felt by the community within Keith and the wider communities along the A96 corridor.

STAG Criteria

1. Environment

A bypass of Keith would likely result in minor positive impacts on communities due to improved safety on the local network and on the trunk road network along the A96 by separating a significant proportion of through traffic from local traffic. This would deliver health and wellbeing benefits to individuals by providing a safer environment to travel. The existing A96 through Keith carries a large volume of through traffic, which includes HGVs, due to the strategic nature of the route. The existing A96 also interacts with numerous local roads via at-grade junctions. A bypass of Keith could help to reduce the volume of traffic travelling through the settlement and therefore assist with placemaking by reducing real and perceived severance and improve the sense of place. The re-distribution of a significant proportion of through traffic to a bypass could produce opportunities to re-orientate the road network and traffic hierarchy along the existing road through Keith, re-connecting communities that may currently feel separated or experience severance due to the trunk road. As a result of the likely reduction in through traffic, a bypass would be anticipated to improve air quality and reduce noise and vibration within Keith itself, if overall traffic volumes through the settlement were reduced; however, the extent would depend on how much traffic transferred to the bypass.

A bypass may also increase the overall use of private vehicles through reducing congestion and making car travel more attractive. There may be a slight deterioration in air quality as a result of any traffic increase; however, the bypass has the potential to improve air quality along the existing A96 within Keith through reducing traffic volumes, congestion and stationary vehicles within the town.

In terms of natural resources, significant quantities of materials and construction-related trips would be required during the construction of a bypass. Depending on the material chosen and its source, there is the potential for a negative impact. The A96 currently passes through a conservation area and there are a number of listed buildings within Keith ( Scotland’s Environment Web ) . The bypass could be of some slight benefit to these locations as traffic volumes would reduce with a bypass.

A bypass has the potential for adverse environmental impacts, with some of these being potentially significant for example on the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, and landscape and visual amenity. The Mill Wood Site of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) to the east of Keith, areas of peatland to the north and large swathes of woodland to the south, many of which are regarded as being Ancient or Long-Established. There are numerous heritage assets in the vicinity of Keith which could be affected. There are areas of significant flood risk associated with the River Isla to the north of Keith and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. This is likely to be a key consideration in delivering a bypass in these areas. The scale of the impacts would be dependent on further design development and the alignment of the bypass being determined and therefore at this stage, the extent of impacts is uncertain. Such impacts could either be direct (such as demolition/land loss/habitat loss) or indirect (such as impacts on setting or views).

In terms of land use, the Moray Local Development Plan outlines settlement expansion to the east of Keith. The alignment of a bypass would need to take this into consideration, as the route could constrain or have a negative impact on future development. There are large areas of protected greenspace to the west and south of Keith including an area with a Tree Preservation Order (adjacent to the A96/A95 road junction) which could be a potential constraint on the alignment of a bypass.

Further environmental assessment would be undertaken if a bypass is progressed through the design and development process in order to assess the location and scale of specific environmental impacts as well as to identify appropriate mitigation where required. Design and construction environmental management plans would also be developed to consider how to protect and enhance landscape, drainage, amenity, biodiversity, and cultural heritage as the design and development process progresses. Appropriate environmental mitigation and enhancement measures would also be embedded as the design and development process progresses.

Overall, at this preliminary stage in the appraisal process, the potential impacts of the Keith bypass are considered moderate negative for this criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, although this would be subject to the location and design of the bypass. If the environmental constraints are avoided or adequately mitigated, then adverse environmental impacts could be reduced.

2. Climate Change

The A96 Trunk Road network could be considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas at high risk of flooding or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated. Impacts also could include material deterioration due to extreme weather leading to deterioration of surface such as softening, deformation and cracking, surface water flooding and damage to surfaces from periods of heavy rainfall. A bypass is likely to suffer the same vulnerabilities; however, new infrastructure would be designed in such a way to minimise the potential effects of climate change, to reduce the vulnerability at that location. Furthermore a bypass should enhance the resilience of the A96, adapting against the effects of climate change.

In the short term, greenhouse gas emissions would occur due to construction activities undertaken to deliver the bypass, including indirect emissions from the manufacture and transportation of materials and emissions from the fuel combusted by construction plant and vehicles.

Traffic data from the A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year) indicates that between 60% and 70% of eastbound traffic, and between 65% and 75% of westbound traffic travelling on the A96 at Keith is through traffic (depending on the peak period), with up to 91% of HGV traffic along the A96 passing through the town. The provision of a bypass could potentially reduce slow moving or stationary traffic whilst also improving the attractiveness of sustainable modes of travel particularly for shorter distance journeys. Removing this traffic through the provision of a bypass is therefore likely to contribute to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target through the reduction of slow moving or stationary traffic, whilst also improving the attractiveness of sustainable modes of travel particularly for shorter distance journeys. The provision of a bypass would also reduce the number of commercial goods vehicles, including HGVs, travelling through the town.

However, a bypass would provide additional road space and therefore increase capacity for motorised vehicles, potentially inducing travel demand. Whilst congestion is not currently a significant issue within Keith, if it were to become an issue in the future, it is likely to be experienced more intensely and for longer periods in the ’Without Policy’ Scenario rather than the ’With Policy’ Scenario, where congestion could be minimal. Expected impacts under the ’With Policy’ Scenario, such as a reduction in car km travelled, could reduce the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the bypass users. Therefore, the provision of additional road space has the potential to have a negative impact under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario and neutral impact under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario on transport-based emissions. The extent of change in greenhouse gas emissions is also dependent on the migration to zero-emission fuels over time.

The option would likely act as a key enabler to maximise sustainable transport and placemaking within Keith, enhancing the opportunity to encourage a shift from car-based travel to sustainable modes, particularly for shorter distance journeys. This is likely to be achieved through creating environments that are more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, or by increasing the priority for public transport services, resulting in a positive contribution to this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

The provision of the bypass could enhance resilience of the A96 to the effect of climate change. However, given the potential for emissions to be generated during the construction period and the bypass to induce travel demand, a bypass of Keith is expected to have a neutral impact on the Climate Change criterion under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and a minor negative impact under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

3. Health, Safety and Wellbeing

Traffic data from the A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year) indicates that between 60% and 70% of eastbound traffic and between 65% and 75% of westbound traffic travelling on the A96 at Keith is through traffic (depending on the peak period), with up to 91% of HGV traffic along the A96 passing through the town. Removing through traffic through the provision of a bypass would likely reduce some of the key barriers to active and sustainable modes within Keith, including real and perceived severance caused by trunk road traffic. This could result in an increase in active travel, providing benefits to health and wellbeing in the town. Furthermore, the bypass could encourage a shift from car-based travel to sustainable modes, particularly for shorter distance journeys within Keith. This would be achieved by creating environments that are more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, providing additional benefits to health and wellbeing.

The removal of through traffic from local roads within Keith through the provision of a bypass, and therefore reducing congestion, should provide benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, whether it be by car, public transport or by active modes.

Generally, the accident rate (2015-2019)on the A96 is lower than the national average ; however, PIA rates between 2015 and 2019 for the A96 through Keith have been identified as higher than corresponding accident rates for Built-up Trunk A-roads in Scotland (12.1 accidents per MVKm) at 22.4 accidents per MVKm. The KSI accident rate is also significantly higher than the national average (2.6 accidents per MVKm) for routes of a similar type at 12.8 accidents per MVKm.

The provision of a Keith bypass is predicted to reduce the volume of peak period traffic passing through Keith by up to 70% eastbound and 75% westbound through the removal of through trips. This could, in turn, reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents on the A96 through Keith, and result in associated road safety improvements.

There is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of the bypass; however, this would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of the option.

It is anticipated that this option would have no impact on the personal security of travellers and their property.

Overall, a bypass is anticipated to have moderate positive impacts on this criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as it is anticipated to provide additional opportunities for active travel within Keith, which could have positive health impacts, as well as reducing the number of accidents within the town.

4. Economy

The A96 plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland, connecting people to employment and education opportunities as well as providing businesses with access to the labour market.

This option would result in wider economic impacts at a national, regional and local level for both transport users and non-users, with the potential to result in positive changes to economic welfare. The A96 is integral to the food and drink sector, a key sector both regionally and nationally, with approximately 44% of the malt whisky distilleries in Scotland located within Moray ( 2019-2022 Strategy ) , and Keith being home to three large distilleries: Strathmill Distillery, Strathisla Distillery and Glen Keith Distillery. Manufacturing is the largest employer within Keith, with 20% of the working population working within this industry ( NOMIS Official Labour Market Statistics ) , with a large steel fabricator (W R Simmers Ltd) located within the town ( Community Profile: Keith ) . Tourism is also a key industry within the vicinity of the Inverness to Aberdeen corridor ( The Strategy for Tourism Development in Moray ) , with significant natural and industrial tourism assets, including the Cairngorms National Park and Royal Deeside. Although Keith is not a significant tourist attractor, the Strathisla Distillery is a high profile attraction as the oldest working distillery in Scottish Highlands, and is part of the Speyside Malt Whisky Trail.

The provision of a bypass of Keith is likely to reduce the conflict between local and longer distance traffic, improving the efficiency of the movement of goods along the corridor due to the likely associated reliability improvements on the trunk road network, thereby supporting opportunities for employment and business growth. The removal of through trips could also provide opportunities to enhance placemaking within Keith, enhancing the local economy by providing more attractive surroundings and encouraging increased footfall. This could be negated, however, if reducing through traffic negatively impacts communities as a result of a reduction in passing trade.

An economic assessment to calculate the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) of this option has not been undertaken at this stage of appraisal as the route and standard of the bypass are currently unknown. However, this option is anticipated to result in benefits to both the private and business users in terms of travel times and vehicle operating costs, particularly for longer distance traffic bypassing the town. Benefits are anticipated to arise as vehicles using the bypass are likely to travel at a more efficient speed, without the need to interact with local junctions. Journey time benefits are also anticipated as local congestion is bypassed and through higher travel speeds associated with the route operating at a higher speed limit.

Overall, a bypass at Keith is expected to have a minor positive impact on the Economy criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios due to the improved journey time reliability for suppliers, businesses, visitors, and customers and the opportunity to provide enhanced placemaking within Keith, increasing footfall and providing benefits to the local economy.

5. Equality and Accessibility

Traffic data from the A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year) indicates that between 60% and 70% of eastbound traffic and between 65% and 75% of westbound traffic travelling on the A96 at Keith is through traffic (depending on the peak period), with up to 91% of HGV traffic along the A96 passing through the town. Whilst this intervention would not directly impact active travel, the removal of through traffic through the provision of a bypass would likely improve local accessibility and remove some of the key barriers to active and sustainable modes within Keith. This option would also reduce severance caused by trunk road traffic, whilst providing the opportunity to enhance placemaking and improve active travel network connections within Keith.

Reducing through traffic within Keith is also likely to improve road safety and ultimately encourage sustainable modes of travel through creating environments that are more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, and improving the reliability and attractiveness of public transport services for local trips. This would likely provide some positive effects for protected characteristic groups who are more likely to walk, wheel or cycle, and are more vulnerable to fear of road danger, including children, young people, women, and older people.

This option is not expected to have a significant impact on the public transport network in Keith. A bypass of Keith is not anticipated to have a direct impact on service frequency and coverage, nor have an impact on fares. Therefore, this option is not anticipated to have a notable impact on issues relating to the affordability and accessibility of public transport services, which are linked to wider issues related to the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in the area.

The potential positive impacts resulting from this option are expected to be most acutely felt by residents within Keith, while the population along the wider A96 corridor would experience negligible impacts against this criterion.

Reference should also be made to the SIAs in Section 3.5.

Overall, the bypass at Keith is considered to have a minor positive impact on the Equality and Accessibility criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as it could encourage more people to travel actively following the removal of through traffic from Keith. This would reduce real and perceived safety, particularly for protected characteristic groups who are more vulnerable to fear of road danger.

Deliverability

1. Feasibility

As the bypass is likely to form part of the trunk road network, Transport Scotland would likely be the scheme promoter. Transport Scotland has significant experience of delivering major roads projects and bypasses within Scotland. Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion of construction and is readily capable of arranging the operation and maintenance of the A96 Keith bypass as part of the wider trunk road network.

The scheme would need to be progressed through an options identification and selection process and development of the preliminary design , including the associated environmental assessments. Any option would also be required to pass through the statutory process, which would require public consultations and could result in the need for a Public Local Inquiry.

Some of the key engineering constraints to the north of Keith are existing roads including the A95, B9017 and B9116, the River Isla and the Aberdeen to Inverness railway line. The A95, the River Isla and the Aberdeen to Inverness railway line would also be constraints for a bypass to the south, as would the B9014 and the Keith to Dufftown heritage railway line. Any bypass route will have to consider geotechnical constraints around Keith as well as infilled quarries and areas of poor ground conditions. There are also various environmental and planning/land use constraints which have been outlined in previous sections.

Detailed development work, including community and stakeholder engagement, would be required to identify the most appropriate preferred route for a bypass.

Despite the constraints and challenges outlined above, the work undertaken to date indicates that a bypass is considered feasible.

2. Affordability

The total estimated cost of providing a bypass of Keith could range between £101m - £250m, as outlined in Section 1.3. Construction costs can vary significantly based on the potential length, design and preferred route of the bypass. Costs would also be dependent on a number of other factors, such as the complexity of construction, the requirement for earthworks and structures, localised ground conditions, the purchase of land and various other engineering and environmental constraints.

In addition to construction costs, Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion and is therefore anticipated to take on the costs associated with the operation and maintenance of the bypass, which would have ongoing costs. It is not anticipated that these costs would be significant in the context of the wider trunk road network which Transport Scotland operates and maintains across Scotland.

The decision to fund capital infrastructure projects ultimately rests with Transport Scotland and the Scottish Government.

3. Public Acceptability

Wider public support is anticipated within the north-east of Scotland for this option. Support is also anticipated from the community in Keith and stakeholders in the wider business community for improvements to the safety and journey time reliability of the trunk road and local road network.

There are likely to be some members of the public who do not support the construction of a bypass. This could include landowners, communities, businesses, and other stakeholders who have concerns over the impact of construction/operation of the bypass or the resulting potential impacts to the environment.

Depending on the response to the bypass, there is likely to be the need for a Public Local Inquiry.

Public consultation undertaken as part of this review indicated general support for bypasses, with 30% of respondents considering the provision of bypasses as one of their top priorities, and 7% suggesting that bypasses could help to address safety concerns. Furthermore, Keith was mentioned as a potential location for a bypass. Only 2% of respondents opposed bypasses along the A96.

Statutory Impact Assessment Criteria

1. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

An SEA has been prepared and has helped inform the Environment criterion of the STAG appraisal. There is also considerable overlap between the SEA and the Climate Change criterion. The SEA utilises a set of SEA objectives that covers a wide range of environmental topics including Climatic Factors, Air Quality, Noise, Population and Human Health, Material Assets, Water Environment, Biodiversity, Geology and Soils, Cultural Heritage, Landscape and Visual Amenity. The full SEA, including scoring and narrative for each of the Preliminary Appraisal interventions and Detailed Appraisal packages is presented in the SEA Draft Environmental Report ( Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Draft Environmental Report - A96 Corridor Review ) .

2. Equalities Impact Assessment (EqIA)

This option could result in reduced traffic through Keith, potentially creating a range of benefits for groups with protected characteristics. Firstly, a decrease in traffic could result in improved local air quality within the town which would be a particular benefit to those groups who are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic emissions such as older people, disabled people, children and pregnant women. A decrease in through traffic in Keith, particularly HGVs, could also address local severance issues, improve the active travel environment and reduce road safety concerns for those groups who are less likely to travel by car.

There could also be benefits for certain groups who rely on private vehicle use to access key services due to mobility reasons, such as disabled people and older people or those who make complex journeys involving ‘trip chaining’ such as women and carers. For example, these groups could experience an improvement in journey times and reliability of journey times both locally and when travelling to key services such as employment, education, healthcare, shopping in Keith and surrounding areas.

Drivers are significantly more likely to have an accident in Keith than in equivalent areas and roads across Scotland, and the accident is more likely to be a serious incident. Reducing traffic should in turn reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents on the A96 in Keith.

The construction of a new bypass may result in negative impacts during both construction and operation stages for local communities. The construction of the scheme may impact groups who are more vulnerable to noise, vibration and air quality impacts such as children, older people, disabled people and pregnant women. Furthermore, during operation, a new bypass could create potential severance, noise, air quality and traffic impacts for communities along the route . However, the level of direct impact would be dependent on the route alignment of the bypass and the types of communities affected.

Overall, a bypass of Keith is expected to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for those protected characteristic groups living along the A96 through Keith and for those who are dependent on private vehicle use. However, negative impacts could be experienced by those living along a new bypass route and more detailed assessment is required to understand the extent of the impact and the appropriate mitigation to reduce negative effects and enhance benefits for protected characteristic groups.

3. Children’s Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment (CRWIA)

A decrease in traffic through Keith could result in improved local air quality and reduced traffic noise which would be a particular benefit to children as they are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic-related emissions and traffic noise. Reduced traffic levels could also help to address local severance issues, improve the active travel environment, reduce road safety concerns and improve access to education for children and young people.

However, the construction of a new bypass could potentially result in negative impacts during both construction and operation stages for children living in local communities along the route. This includes noise, vibration and air quality impacts during construction and potential severance, noise, air quality and traffic impacts during operation . However, the level of direct impact would be dependent on the location of the bypass and proximity to children and young people living or attending schools along the route.

Overall, a bypass of Keith is expected to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for children living along the A96 through Keith. However, potential negative impacts could be experienced under both scenarios for children living and attending school along a new bypass route. More detailed assessment is required to understand the extent of these impacts and to ensure effective mitigation.

4. Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment (FSDA)

This option could result in reduced traffic through Keith, creating benefits for socio-economically disadvantaged groups. Reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 through Keith would be a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within the town. These improvements would benefit those who are unable to afford a car. There is also the potential for a reduction in inequalities of health in disadvantaged and deprived communities through improved air quality.

There is generally a heavier reliance on the use of the private car along the A96 corridor compared with the rest of the country. This is primarily due to the rural nature of the region, where there is greater dependency on the private car to access employment, education, healthcare and for social purposes. In absence of viable alternatives to travel, those on low incomes may be ‘forced’ into car ownership despite financial constraints. However, there could be benefits through an improvement in journey times and reliability of journey times for these drivers as a result of more economical journeys as well more attractive environment for active travel where possible.

There are opportunities for safety improvements to benefit socio-economically disadvantaged groups, as evidence ( Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System ) shows that people from deprived areas are more likely to be injured or killed as road users.

However, the extent to which positive effects would be realised depends on the location of a bypass and the level of reduction of through traffic within disadvantaged and deprived communities .

Overall, a bypass at Keith is expected to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for socio-economically disadvantaged groups.