Preliminary Appraisal Outcomes

Introduction to Preliminary Appraisal

This chapter summarises the outcomes of the Preliminary Appraisal for the A96 Corridor Review, including the options that were retained to progress to Detailed Appraisal, and those which have been sifted at this stage.

Although 16 options were identified from the initial option sifting in the Case for Change, not all of these were assessed during the Preliminary Appraisal. The A96 Full Dualling (plus Targeted Trunk Road Improvements), hereon referred to as A96 Full Dualling, and Active Hubs options were not subject to Preliminary Appraisal for the different reasons that are described in the following sections.

Consideration of A96 Full Dualling

As the Scottish Government’s current plan is to fully dual the A96 route between Inverness and Aberdeen, it was considered appropriate that it progressed to the Detailed Appraisal stage, as it has already been the subject of the appraisal undertaken in 2014 that established the Inverness to Aberdeen Corridor Study A96 Dualling Inverness to Aberdeen Strategic Business Case.

The option for A96 Full Dualling has been appraised as part of the Detailed Appraisal to assess its performance against current appraisal criteria including the TPOs developed for the A96 Corridor Review, the current STAG criteria and the relevant SIAs. The outcomes of the Detailed Appraisal for A96 Full Dualling are presented in Chapter 6.

It should be noted that the A96 Dualling Inverness to Nairn (including Nairn Bypass) scheme has been excluded from the scope of the A96 Corridor Review as it already has ministerial consent. In the context of the A96 Corridor Review, the A96 Full Dualling therefore comprises the section of the route from Hardmuir (to the East of Nairn) through to the junction with the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route (AWPR) at Craibstone.

Outcomes of Preliminary Appraisal

Early in the Preliminary Appraisal process it was identified that the Active Hubs option would clearly align with and sit within STPR2 recommendation 22 (Framework for Delivery of Mobility Hubs). It was determined that STPR2 would be the most appropriate mechanism by which to progress this option at a national level. As such, the appraisal of Active Hubs was not completed within the A96 Corridor Review, and outcomes relating to this option are therefore not presented in this chapter.

Table 4.1 summarises the Preliminary Appraisal scoring of the 14 remaining options, excluding Active Hubs and A96 Full Dualling as noted previously, based on the assessment of their performance against the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria and SIAs.

As stated in Section 2.4, within the context of the table, the TPOs are:

• TPO1: A sustainable strategic transport corridor that contributes to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.
• TPO2: An inclusive strategic transport corridor that improves the accessibility of public transport in rural areas for access to healthcare, employment and education.
• TPO3: A coherent strategic transport corridor that enhances communities as places, supporting health, wellbeing and the environment.
• TPO4: An integrated strategic transport system that contributes towards sustainable inclusive growth throughout the corridor and beyond.
• TPO5: A reliable and resilient strategic transport system that is safe for users.

Also, within the table, the abbreviations of the STAG criteria refer to the following:

• Env: Environment
• CC: Climate Change
• H, S & W: Health, Safety and Wellbeing
• Econ: Economy
• Eq & A: Equality and Accessibility

Table 4.1: Preliminary Appraisal Scoring Summary

Option and Scenario	TPO1	TPO2	TPO3	TPO4	TPO5	STAG – Env	STAG – CC	STAG – H, S & W	STAG – Econ	STAG – Eq & A	SIA – EqIA	SIA – CRWIA	SIA – FSDA
Active Communities under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	+++	+	+++	+	+++	+	+	++	+	+++	+++	+++	+++
Active Communities under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	+++	+	+++	+	+++	+	+	++	+	+++	+++	+++	+++
Active Connections under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	++	+	++	+	++	+	+	++	+	+++	++	++	+
Active Connections under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	++	+	++	+	++	+	+	++	+	+++	++	++	+
Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Facilities under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	0	+	+	+	+	+	0	+	+	+	+++	+	+
Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Facilities under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	0	+	+	+	+	+	0	+	+	+	+++	+	+
Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	++
Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	++
Investment in DRT and MaaS under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	+	+	+	+	0	+	+	+	+	+	++	++	++
Investment in DRT and MaaS under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	+	+	+	+	0	+	+	+	+	+	++	++	++
Introduction of Rail Freight Terminals under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	+	0	+	+	+	-	0	+	+	+	+	+	+
Introduction of Rail Freight Terminals under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	+	0	+	+	+	-	0	+	+	+	+	+	+
Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	++	+	+	+	+	-	+	+	++	+	+	+	+
Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	++	+	+	+	+	-	+	+	++	+	+	+	+
Improved Parking Provision at Railway Stations under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	-	-	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	0	0	0
Improved Parking Provision at Railway Stations under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	-	-	-	0	0	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	0
Targeted Road Safety Improvements under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	0	0	+	+	+++	- -	0	+++	++	+	0	0	0
Targeted Road Safety Improvements under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	0	0	+	+	+++	- -	0	+++	++	+	0	0	0
Elgin Bypass under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	0	0	+	+	+	- -	0	+	+	+	+	+	+
Elgin Bypass under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	-	0	+	+	+	- -	-	+	+	+	+	+	+
Keith Bypass under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	0	0	+	+	++	- -	0	++	+	+	+	+	+
Keith Bypass under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	-	0	+	+	++	- -	-	++	+	+	+	+	+
Inverurie Bypass under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	-	0	0	+	+	- -	-	0	+	0	0	0	0
Inverurie Bypass under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	- -	0	0	+	+	- -	- -	0	+	0	0	0	0
Forres Bypass under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	0	0	+	0	++	- -	-	++	0	+	0	+	0
Forres Bypass under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	-	0	+	0	++	- -	- -	++	0	+	0	+	0
Development of the A96 Electric Corridor under ‘With Policy’ Scenario	+++	0	0	++	+	0	+	0	++	0	+	+	0
Development of the A96 Electric Corridor under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario	+++	0	0	++	+	0	++	0	++	0	+	+	0

Of the 14 options assessed almost all are considered likely to result in positive impacts against a number of the appraisal criteria. Only the Improved Parking Provision at Railway Stations option is not considered likely to result in positive impacts against any criterion. The following sections briefly summarise the outcomes of the Preliminary Appraisal for each option and the rationale for progression, or not, to Detailed Appraisal.

Full Preliminary ASTs can be found in Appendix C.

Active Communities

This option makes a positive contribution to all the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria, and SIA criteria in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. Active Communities would aim to increase the mode share of walking, wheeling and cycling in settlements through provision of active travel infrastructure and placemaking improvements, which would have a major positive impact on objectives for contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero emissions targets (TPO1), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TP03) and providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TP05). Active Communities can also assist in improving accessibility to public transport (TPO2) and contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TP04), with minor positive impacts anticipated.

The option would also have a major positive contribution for the STAG Equality and Accessibility criterion with benefits expected for all people groups within communities as a result of the enhanced provision of active travel infrastructure for access to key services. A moderate positive contribution to the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion is also anticipated.

Active Communities also scores positively against the SIA criteria, with major positive impacts in relation to Equality, Child Rights and Wellbeing and Fairer Scotland Duty. The option would also build on the STPR2 recommendation 1 (Connected Neighbourhoods).

Active Communities are considered to be implementable from a feasibility perspective in key communities along the A96, although costs of implementation could be relatively high depending on the location and scale of the intervention. Detailed local engagement and design work would be required to identify the most appropriate locations and types of intervention. General public support is anticipated for active travel interventions that improve safety and provide traffic free routes, though there may be some opposition from those who drive if roadspace is reallocated for active travel.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Active Connections

This option makes a positive contribution to all of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria, and the SIA criteria in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. Improving and creating new active travel connections between settlements could encourage modal shift away from cars, reducing carbon emissions and inequalities by improving access to jobs, services and leisure activities between neighbouring settlements. Moderate benefits are anticipated in relation to contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TP03) as well as positively impacting in relation to providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TP05). Active Connections can also assist in improving accessibility to public transport (TPO2) and contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TP04), with minor positive impacts anticipated.

The option particularly contributes to the STAG Equality and Accessibility criterion due to the comparative benefits by people group and improvement in active travel network coverage between communities along the A96 corridor. A moderate positive contribution to the STAG Health, safety and wellbeing criterion is also anticipated.

Active Connections also positively contributes to the SIA criteria around Equality and Child Rights and Wellbeing, as well as the Fairer Duty Scotland assessment. The option would also build on the STPR2 recommendations 3 (Village Town Active Travel Connections), 4 (Connecting Towns by Active Travel) and 5 (Long Distance Active Travel Network).

Connecting settlements by active travel routes is considered to be implementable from a feasibility perspective, albeit detailed local engagement and design work is required to identify the most appropriate routes. As such, costs are dependent on a number of factors including the requirement for earthworks and structures, localised ground conditions and the purchase of land. General public support is anticipated for active travel interventions that improve safety and provide traffic free routes.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Facilities

This option has a positive contribution to most of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs and STAG criteria, and all of the SIA criteria in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. By increasing the quality of passenger facilities to reduce the perceived disconnect between public transport services, this option would improve the travel experience, particularly benefiting those who do not have access to a car and from the most deprived households. As such, the option is anticipated to have minor positive impacts on TPOs for improving accessibility to public transport (TPO2), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TP03), and contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TP04). Improvements to personal security and reliability of services is also anticipated to have minor positive impacts for providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TP05).

Improving public transport passenger interchange facilities is also anticipated to have minor positive impacts on the STAG Environment, Health, Safety and Wellbeing, Economy and Equality and Accessibility criteria.

The variety of measures considered would reduce barriers to public transport use, especially for the elderly, those with reduced mobility or impaired vision or hearing and for those who are neurodivergent. Therefore, the option would have a major positive impact in relation to the Equalities Impact Assessment, with minor positive impacts for Child Rights and Wellbeing and the Fairer Duty Scotland assessments. It would also build on Scotland’s Accessible Travel Framework and Delivery Plan ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/scotland-s-accessible-travel-framework-annual-delivery-plan-2021-22/ ) and on STPR2 recommendations 19 (Infrastructure to provide access for all at railway stations) and 21 (Improved public transport interchange facilities).

Delivery of the option is generally considered to be feasible, though local characteristics and varying constraints may create some challenges. Delivery is considered to be affordable at this stage, with it being assumed that the option would be limited to the provision of targeted improvements at public transport interchange facilities. Public consultation indicated a reasonable level of support for options to improve interchange between different modes.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride

Provision of strategic bus priority measures and park and ride facilities would have a positive impact against all of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs and STAG criteria in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, as well as delivering positive benefits against most of the SIA criteria. Delivering shorter and more reliable bus journey times is likely to increase the attractiveness of bus, potentially resulting in a modal shift from car. This is anticipated to result in minor positive impacts for all TPOs and STAG criteria.

The option also positively contributes to the SIA criteria around Equality and Child Rights and Wellbeing, with minor positive impacts expected, and a moderate positive impact in relation to the Fairer Duty Scotland assessment. The option would also build on the STPR2 recommendation 14 (Provision of Strategic Bus Priority Measures).

Delivery of the option is considered to be generally feasible, making use of interventions for which there is already significant experience of implementation in Scotland. They should also be affordable, with the ability to tailor funding to suit local circumstances. Although public consultation indicates a potential level of general support for both bus priority measures and park and ride, there may still be challenges associated with public acceptability, especially where provision of bus priority measures requires reallocation of roadspace or removal of parking .

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Investment in DRT and MaaS

Investment in DRT and MaaS to provide a pilot scheme aimed at delivering better public transport connectivity in locations with low bus network coverage or where conventional fixed route services may not be commercially viable would have a positive impact against most of the TPOs, and all the STAG and SIA criteria in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. Enhancing accessibility to public and shared transport is anticipated to have a minor positive impact for accessibility to public transport (TPO2) and enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TP03). The potential to create a modal shift from car would help in contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1) and providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5). A pilot scheme for DRT and MaaS would also result in minor positive impacts for all of the STAG criteria.

Of key importance is the impact that this option might have in reducing inequality of access to the public transport network, given the role that it can play in providing access to employment, education, healthcare and leisure activities, as well as integrating with other services and other modes. The option is therefore anticipated to have a moderate positive impact for all SIA criteria. The option would also build on the STPR2 recommendation 20 (Investment in Demand Responsive Transport and Mobility as a Service).

While it is considered feasible to deliver the pilot scheme to improve public transport connectivity, the availability of appropriate technology and whether passengers could access this technology, including relevant MaaS applications and bank accounts for payment for example, would need to be considered. The extent to which schemes could operate without the need for additional revenue support would also need considered upon completion of the pilot scheme. Improving public transport connectivity is likely to be acceptable to the public, although if fixed routes are to be replaced or fares increase this would likely be viewed negatively.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Introduction of Rail Freight Terminals

This option makes a largely positive contribution to the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria, and SIA criteria in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, although there are potential negative impacts for the STAG Environment criterion. Rail freight terminals aim to provide more opportunities for goods movement across the A96 corridor, encouraging a shift away from road freight vehicles to move goods more sustainably, reduce harmful air pollution and potentially reduce local noise impacts. The option would therefore have a minor positive contribution to the TPOs for contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TP03), contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TPO4) and providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5).

Rail freight terminals are anticipated to have a minor negative impact on the STAG Environment criterion as there are sensitive environmental designations, in places such as Keith and Elgin, that could be affected by the construction footprints of the terminals. This may affect aspects such as biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity.

The option is anticipated to have a minor positive impact on the three SIA criteria and would also build on the STPR2 recommendation 44 (Rail Freight Terminals).

New facilities are considered to be implementable from a feasibility perspective in connection with Scotland’s railway network. However, detailed local engagement and design work, including working closely with businesses, could be required to identify the most appropriate locations and types of intervention, and capital costs could vary significantly based upon these assessments. Rail freight terminals are likely to be well received generally due to the potential for carbon dioxide reduction and removal of HGVs from the road network, although some businesses may not favour the option if they are unable to shift modes to move freight by rail.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line

This option makes a largely positive contribution to the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria, and SIA criteria, with the exception of the STAG Environment criteria, in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. This option sets out a broad range of proposals to increase both the passenger and freight capacity, as well as improve journey times, on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line to make it a more attractive service and encourage modal shift. Doing so would remove a potential barrier towards using the rail network for medium to long distance travel across the corridor and therefore reduce the inequality of access to the public transport network. As a result, the option is anticipated to have moderate positive impact for contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1), and minor positive impacts for improving accessibility to public transport (TPO2), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TP03), contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TPO4) and providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5).

The construction of new track and re-use of freight yards could have a negative impact on other aspects of the environment including visual amenity, cultural heritage and biodiversity, though these negative impacts are anticipated to be minor and could be mitigated as part of the detailed design development process. However, it could deliver moderate positive impacts for the STAG Economy criterion, and minor positive impacts for the STAG Climate Change, Health, Safety and Wellbeing and Equality and Accessibility criteria.

Delivery is considered to be feasible at this stage, however a detailed assessment would require to be undertaken to fully establish the details of the option and impacts of construction. The option is considered to be affordable at this stage, though it is noted that there are some risks with respect to ongoing revenue funding. Support in improving capacity and reliability of the rail network is anticipated by the public and businesses throughout the corridor.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Improved Parking Provision at Railway Stations

This option is expected to have a neutral or minor negative impact against most of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria and SIAs. The option is intended to increase the potential to achieve modal shift from private car to rail for longer distance trips through enhanced parking facilities at railway stations. However, any modal shift may be outweighed by the potential generation of additional shorter distance car trips associated with travel to rail stations. This could result in the generation of a net increase in car kilometres, not in line with current policy objectives. Notwithstanding the fact that many of the stations serve a large rural hinterland, the settlements themselves are generally compact in nature, meaning that there should be opportunity to address local station access through active modes, which is achieved by other options considered in the Preliminary Appraisal.

The performance of the option against the objectives and criteria is marginal and it is anticipated to have a minor negative impact in both transport behaviour scenarios on multiple TPOs relating to contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1), improving accessibility to public transport (TPO2), and enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TP03) as it only benefits those with access to a car and encourages its use for at least part of a trip. The option is also anticipated to have a minor negative impact for the STAG Equality and Accessibility criterion in both scenarios, and for the STAG Climate Change criterion in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario where car trips are anticipated to be more common.

The option is considered to be feasible from a technical delivery perspective, with no significant construction constraints. Improving parking at railway stations is also considered to be affordable, though costs at individual sites would vary depending on locational requirements and constraints that may affect the complexity of construction and therefore a more detailed review at each location would be required.

It is considered that Active Communities could provide a much greater degree of benefits that better aligns with policy objectives and without many of the negative impacts as a result of a potential increase in car kilometres. Therefore, it was not recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Targeted Road Safety Improvements

This option makes a generally positive contribution to most of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs and STAG criteria, with a number of neutral impacts including those for the SIAs. However, it is expected that there would be moderate negative impacts on the STAG Environment criterion as a result of this option in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

This option is focused on improving the safety of the trunk road network through the provision of targeted safety improvements along the A96 corridor. This option is therefore anticipated to have a major positive impact on TPO5 in relation to providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system, as well as minor positive impacts for enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TPO3) and contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TPO4). In addition to the TPOs, the improvements for road safety are anticipated to have a major positive impact on the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion. Economic benefits are expected due to improved reliability and an anticipated reduction in road closures, contributing to a moderate positive impact for the STAG Economy criterion, and a minor positive impact for the STAG Equality and Accessibility criterion.

However, improving road safety may encourage more car trips to be made that might subsequently generate an increase in car kilometres, and the footprint for some interventions could increase the current roadspace, with a negative impact on environmental considerations such as water environment, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, and visual amenity.

The option would build on the STPR2 recommendation 30 (Trunk Road and Motorway Safety Improvements). Delivery is considered to be feasible with Transport Scotland having significant experience of implementing the type of options considered. Affordability is dependent on the complexity and scale of options. Wider public support is anticipated for improvements to the safety of the trunk road network, with this being noted as a major concern for users of the A96 Trunk Road.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Elgin Bypass

This option makes a generally positive contribution to most of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria and SIA criteria. However, it is expected that there would be negative impacts from this option in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios on the STAG Environment criterion. In the ‘Without Policy’ scenario specifically, the option is expected to perform negatively against TPO1 regarding contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets, and the STAG Climate Change criterion.

This option offers the opportunity to enhance community cohesion and placemaking by addressing the severance issues associated with a busy trunk road bisecting a community. In turn, this could increase the attractiveness of shorter everyday trips undertaken within the community by active modes, positively contributing to TPO3 associated with enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment, and the STAG criteria for Health, Safety and Wellbeing and Equality and Accessibility. The Elgin bypass would provide additional roadspace whilst reducing the amount of traffic and delays in the town itself that is also anticipated to positively impact on the TPOs in relation to contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TPO4) and providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5), as well as the STAG Economy criterion.

Although the Elgin bypass would remove a proportion of noise and emissions-related pollution from the town, the physical impact of construction could negatively impact the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity. This would overall have a moderate negative impact on the STAG Environment criterion in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. In the ‘Without Policy’ scenario specifically where traffic demand is likely to be higher with greater vehicle kilometres travelled, the option would have a minor negative impact against TPO1 regarding contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets, and the STAG Climate Change criterion.

Delivery is considered to be feasible, however a detailed assessment would require to be undertaken to fully establish the details of the bypass including the optimal corridor and junction strategy. Although a bypass of Elgin is considered to be affordable at this stage, capital costs are also highly dependent on the potential length and route a bypass may take. A reasonable level of support for the option from the public is anticipated due to the potential safety improvements and reliability benefits for strategic traffic.

The bypass as a standalone intervention performs negatively against the STAG Environment criterion, and TPO1 and the STAG Climate Change criterion particularly in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario. However, it would likely act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within Elgin.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Keith Bypass

This option makes a generally positive contribution to most of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria and SIA criteria. This option is expected to perform particularly well against TPO5 for providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system as well as the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion as the bypass would remove strategic trips from the town where accident rates were identified as being higher than the national average.

The bypass would also offer the opportunity to enhance community cohesion and placemaking by addressing the severance associated with a busy trunk road bisecting a community; and in turn, this could increase the attractiveness of shorter everyday trips undertaken by active modes. As such, a minor positive impact is anticipated for TPO3 associated with enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment. A moderate positive impact is anticipated for the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion, with further minor positive impacts for the STAG Equality and Accessibility criterion, and the SIAs for Equality, Child Rights and Wellbeing and Fairer Scotland Duty.

Although the Keith bypass could remove some noise and emissions-related pollution from the town, the physical impact of construction could negatively impact the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity, with an overall moderate negative impact expected for the STAG Environment criterion in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. In the ‘Without Policy’ scenario specifically where traffic demand is likely to be higher with greater vehicle kilometres travelled, the option is expected to have a minor negative impact against TPO1 regarding contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets, and the STAG Climate Change criterion.

Delivery is considered to be feasible, however a detailed assessment would require to be undertaken to fully establish the details of the bypass including the optimal corridor and junction strategy. Although a bypass of Keith is considered to be affordable at this stage, capital costs are also highly dependent on the potential length and route a bypass may take. A reasonable level of support for the option from the public is anticipated due to the potential safety improvements and reliability benefits for through traffic.

The bypass as a standalone intervention performs negatively against the STAG Environment criterion, and TPO1 and the STAG Climate Change criterion in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario in particular. However, it would likely act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within Keith whilst delivering a safety improvement.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Inverurie Bypass

This option has a generally neutral contribution to a number of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria and SIA criteria, with some minor positives. However, it is expected that there would be negative impacts as a result from this option in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, specifically considering TPO1, regarding contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets, and the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria. The negative impacts are anticipated to be greater for TPO1 and the STAG Climate Change criterion under the ‘Without Policy’ scenario (moderate negative) than the ‘With Policy’ scenario (minor negative).

The bypass would remove strategic through trips from the current network, reducing delay experienced by motorists as well as increasing resilience and reducing the accident risk with lower traffic volumes in the urban area. This option is therefore anticipated to have minor positive impacts on the TPOs in relation to providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5) as well as contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TPO4) and the STAG Economy criterion.

The impact of construction could negatively impact the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity, with an overall moderate negative impact expected for the STAG Environment criterion in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. Considering the potential for the bypass to induce travel demand, combined with emissions arising during the construction period and the limited opportunities to increase active travel within the town, a complete bypass of Inverurie is expected to have a moderate negative impact on TPO1 and the STAG Climate Change criterion under the ‘Without Policy’ scenario. The option would have a minor negative impact under the ‘With Policy’ scenario.

The location of the section to be bypassed means there are limited opportunities to improve active travel. Whilst a reduction in traffic along this section could reduce both real and perceived severance, this is unlikely to result in a significant benefit to the community to the west, whose sole crossing point of the A96 is likely to remain the grade separated active travel route to the north of Blackhall Roundabout. Depending on the route the bypass could take and the location of any intermediate junctions, it could reduce traffic flows through Inverurie. A bypass may therefore act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within Inverurie whilst contributing to safety improvements. This option is therefore anticipated to score neutral against TPO3 associated with enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment, and the STAG criteria for Health, Safety and Wellbeing and Equality and Accessibility.

Delivery is considered to be feasible, however a detailed assessment would require to be undertaken to fully establish the details of the bypass including the optimal corridor and junction strategy. Although a bypass of Inverurie is considered to be affordable at this stage, capital costs are also highly dependent on the potential length and route a bypass may take. A reasonable level of support for the option from the public is anticipated due to the potential safety improvements and reliability benefits for through traffic.

The bypass as a standalone intervention performs negatively against TPO1 and the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria. Although it may act as an enabler for a degree of sustainable transport and placemaking improvements to be delivered within Inverurie, the scale of any benefits would be directly linked to the potential route of a bypass and the location of junctions to connect to the existing road network.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Forres Bypass

This option makes a positive contribution to selected TPOs, STAG criteria and SIA criteria. Reducing the volumes of traffic within Forres through the provision of a bypass is anticipated to reduce the conflict between local and long-distance traffic on the urban section of the A96, potentially reducing the number and severity of accidents which occur at junctions along this route. As such, the option is anticipated to have a moderate positive impact to TPO5 for providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system and the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion.

Generally, the provision of a bypass would be expected to better connect residents to key amenities and employment opportunities through the removal of through traffic, with potential to improve the sense of place and opportunities to travel by active modes. However, as the A96 does not pass directly through the town the degree of severance and the associated impact on community cohesion is likely to be relatively minor. Notwithstanding this, by reducing volumes of traffic on the existing A96 a bypass would likely offer some severance relief for residents accessing the train station, which is situated north of the A96. The reduced conflict between vehicular traffic and those walking, wheeling, or cycling would have a positive contribution to TPO3 regarding enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment, and the STAG criterion for Equality and Accessibility.

However, it is expected that there would be negative impacts as a result from this option, specifically considering the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria. In the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, the option is also expected to have a minor negative impact against TPO1 regarding contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets. There is the potential for increases in congestion in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario within Forres itself, with the bypass then relieving at least some of this congestion and inducing further road-based travel, thus increasing vehicle kilometres travelled. The negative impacts on Climate Change are also expected to be greater in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario (moderate negative) than the ‘With Policy’ scenario (minor negative). Although the Forres bypass could remove some noise and emissions-related pollution from the town, the physical impact of construction could negatively impact the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity. This results in an overall moderate negative impact expected for the STAG Environment criterion in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

Delivery is considered to be feasible, however a detailed assessment would require to be undertaken to fully establish the details of the bypass including the optimal corridor and junction strategy. Although a bypass of Forres is considered to be affordable at this stage, capital costs are also highly dependent on the potential length and route a bypass may take. It is anticipated that there will be a reasonable level of public acceptability.

The bypass as a standalone intervention performs negatively against the STAG criteria for Environment and Climate Change, and TPO1 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario in particular. Although it may act as an enabler for a degree of sustainable transport and placemaking improvements to be delivered within Forres, the scale of any benefits would be directly linked to the potential route of a bypass and the location of junctions to connect to the existing road network.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Development of the A96 Electric Corridor

This option makes a generally positive contribution to most of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria and SIA criteria. The delivery of alternative refuelling infrastructure is expected to significantly contribute towards supporting the rapid decarbonisation of the transport sector, improve the provision of these assets across the corridor and be sufficiently flexible to accommodate the varying needs of road users of the A96 and local communities. As such, the option is anticipated to have a major positive impact in relation to TPO1 regarding contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets. For the STAG Climate Change criterion, a moderate positive impact would be anticipated in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, where traffic demand and vehicle kilometres are higher, and a minor positive impact in the ‘With Policy’ scenario.

The A96 corridor supports a significant volume of trips with there being a notable proportion of goods vehicles associated with key economic sectors in the corridor which alongside the local communities presents a potential base for long-term usage of the option. There is strong emerging growth in the production and distribution of alternative fuels, particularly in relation to renewable energy and hydrogen with there being a desire for continued expansion and development of these facilities and associated infrastructure. Therefore, it is also anticipated to have a moderate positive impact on TPO4 for contributing to sustainable inclusive growth and the STAG Economy criterion. There would also be a minor positive impact for TPO5 relating to providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system through the additional infrastructure provided for alternative fuelled vehicles.

The benefits to air quality of alternative fuelled vehicles would be of most benefit to those who are vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic-related emissions, including children, disabled people, older people and pregnant women. Therefore, the option is anticipated to result in minor positive impacts in relation to the SIA criteria for Equality and Child Rights and Wellbeing. The option would also build on the STPR2 recommendation 28 (Zero Emission Vehicles and Infrastructure Transition).

It is unclear at this stage what the option would comprise in terms of locations, scale and overall offering as well as whether it is likely to be a range or mix of static, demountable and/or mobile refuelling solutions. However, the option is considered to be feasible from a construction and deliverability perspective with significant experience in delivering elements of alternative refuelling infrastructure facilities within Scotland. Affordability is similarly dependent on the locations and scale of the option but is likely to be of modest capital cost with revenue stream potential to potentially offset initial costs. The current market share of alternative fuelled vehicles is relatively low, but wider public support is anticipated and would further improve the number of these vehicles increases.

It was recommended that this option be taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Outcomes of the Preliminary Established Policy Objectives Assessment

This section summarises the general consistency and performance of the 14 options with the five overarching policy objective themes, as set out in Section 3.6, from the outcomes of the bespoke PAF assessment.

Environment

Under the Environment theme, where an option requires significant new infrastructure or the development of land such as the bypass options and the Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line, there is a potential inconsistency with policy objectives, with key concerns being the safeguarding of natural environment assets and the blue network/waterbodies. Potential design measures or mitigation could minimise the negative impacts, but this cannot be assessed at this stage. Some of the options, including bypasses, are anticipated to improve local air quality by removing car and commercial vehicle through trips from towns, however their overall impact on air quality is uncertain as they may encourage an increase in vehicle kilometres overall, thus increasing emissions produced.

Where sustainable mode shift is facilitated to public transport or active travel, these options are considered generally consistent with objectives relating to improving air quality and contributing towards the creation and maintenance of high-quality places which are attractive, connected and sustainable. However, given the lack of design detail commensurate with this early stage of option appraisal, it is not appropriate to make comment on whether construction of any of the options would be inconsistent with objectives related to protecting and enhancing the natural environment and potentially blue networks and waterbodies.

Climate Change

Under the Climate Change theme, the four bypass options along with targeted road safety interventions all have the potential to increase vehicle trips and kilometres travelled, which is inconsistent with key climate change policy objectives to reduce vehicle kilometres by 20% by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2045. Bypasses score better against objectives related to adaptation due to the assumption that new infrastructure would be designed to minimise the predicted effects of climate change.

Options supporting mode shift to more sustainable modes including active travel options, rail options and the A96 Electric Corridor are more generally consistent with the climate change objectives. However, not all options supporting mode shift would help adapt the transport network to the risks associated with climate change. Those options that modify existing or introduce new infrastructure would be designed to withstand the predicted impacts of climate change but may still be vulnerable to extreme weather, as is the case for the existing transport networks. Also, only few options, including the A96 Electric Corridor and potentially Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line, would directly consider promoting and supporting clean fuels/technologies to decarbonise travel.

Health, Safety and Wellbeing

Under the Health, Safety and Wellbeing appraisal theme most of the options have either a general consistency or neutral relationship with the Health, Safety and Wellbeing objectives. Bypasses would remove through trips from towns, supporting safety objectives. This may encourage healthy travel choices and liveable places if accompanied by other active travel improvements, however as they make driving over longer distances between settlements more attractive, they would not encourage sustainable access to critical services within local communities. Similarly, despite improving road safety on the A96 Trunk Road, Targeted Road Safety Improvements could encourage more people to drive which may provide limited contribution towards improving health outcomes.

Active travel options particularly have a high level of consistency with the Health, Safety and Wellbeing appraisal theme as they support healthy travel choices and the creation of liveable places, whilst also enhancing provision of non-motorised transport and provide sustainable access to critical services.

Economic

Under the Economic theme most of the options are considered to either be consistent or have a neutral relationship with the relevant policy objectives. The majority of options support the resilience and reliability of the transport network and enhance the competitiveness of business locally and across the wider country, either by providing new or improved connections for freight and commuting traffic by road or rail or encouraging a modal shift to increase travel options. Bypass options could make it more desirable to use local amenities by sustainable modes where traffic is removed from the centre of communities.

However, some options are not considered to be fully consistent with the objective to support and enhance the rural economy. For example, the Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line may encourage more business and travel in areas where there are already rail stations, most commonly found in the larger towns along the A96 corridor. Also, bypasses could reduce the amount of passing trade in towns by encouraging through trips to divert away from town centres and may lead to the loss of productive agricultural land, both of which may result in some negative impacts on the local economy.

Equality

Options demonstrate varying levels of consistency with the Equality theme. Rail freight options were not considered to contribute towards policy objectives for improving equal transport accessibility for all communities. The development of the A96 Electric Corridor was also considered potentially inconsistent with objectives of supporting affordable access to and from disadvantaged communities and education, health care and employment opportunities as it only benefits those with the ability to afford an alternatively fuelled vehicle. The benefits from Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line similarly may not contribute as positively to improving equal transport accessibility for all communities as rail travel is less affordable for some users, particularly those from disadvantaged communities.

Options that promote active travel and bus as alternatives to use of a car are consistent with providing sustainable, affordable and fair transport access to a range of services including education, employment and health care facilities. Investment in DRT and MaaS is also generally consistent and would assist in creating connections from more disadvantaged communities.

Bypasses have a more neutral relationship with the Equality appraisal theme. Although these options focus on and provide most benefits to those with access to a car, there is some consistency with the objective to provide fair and equal access to health care services as journey times would potentially be quicker and/or more reliable. It is currently uncertain whether bypasses would support an enhanced bus network as this is dependent on alignment and operator decisions on service routing, but there is the potential for greater consistency with the Equality theme if benefits for buses are delivered.

Options to Progress to Detailed Appraisal

Based on the assessment of the 14 options at Preliminary Appraisal, the 13 options that were progressed to Detailed Appraisal are:

• Active Communities
• Active Connections
• Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride
• Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Facilities
• Investment in DRT and MaaS
• Introduction of Rail Freight Terminals
• Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line
• Targeted Road Safety Improvements
• Forres Bypass
• Elgin Bypass
• Keith Bypass
• Inverurie Bypass
• Development of the A96 Electric Corridor.

The single option that was sifted at this stage was Improved Parking Provision at Railway Stations.

As noted in Section 4.2, A96 Full Dualling (from Hardmuir to Craibstone) was progressed to the Detailed Appraisal stage, as it has already been the subject of the appraisal undertaken in 2014 that established the Inverness to Aberdeen Corridor Study A96 Dualling Inverness to Aberdeen Strategic Business Case. The option for A96 Full Dualling has been appraised as part of the Detailed Appraisal to assess its performance against current appraisal criteria including the TPOs developed for the A96 Corridor Review, the current STAG criteria and the relevant SIAs.