Case for Change Summary

Introduction

The Case for Change was the first stage of the STAG process, setting out the justification for taking the study forward. For the A96 Corridor Review, this included:

a review of current national, regional and local strategy and policy documents used to provide the policy context for the review
determination of the geographic, socio-economic, environmental and transport context for the transport appraisal study area
the identification and definition of the key problems and opportunities for the transport corridor, developed from the evidence base that included analyses of a wide range of datasets, and supported by information obtained from the engagement activities that were undertaken and in particular through stakeholder engagement workshops and a public consultation survey with nearly 4,600 responses received
the development of overarching TPOs, each with a set of corridor-specific sub-objectives, based on the identified problems and opportunities
the generation and sifting of over 11,000 option suggestions, including approximately 10,700 from the public consultation survey, applicable and relevant to the transport corridor.

The following sections summarise the key findings and outcomes from the A96 Corridor Review Case for Change report.

Policy Context

To establish the overall strategic fit of the A96 Corridor Review, the relevant national, regional and local policies and strategies were reviewed covering topic areas including Spatial Planning, Economic Development and Climate Change.

Figure 2.1 provides an overview of the policies and strategies that were reviewed.

A demonstration of the key policies and strategies reviewed as part of the Case for Change. Documents are split into three categories: National, Regional and Local.

Further information on each of the documents can be found in the Case for Change, published online in December 2022. — Figure 2.1: Overview of Policy and Strategy Context

The review of the relevant policies and strategies identified a key theme related to the impact transport related emissions have on climate change, with a focus on developing more sustainable environments and transport systems. This is underpinned by the Scottish Government’s Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 and Climate Change Plan 2018-2032 update. A key commitment for transport includes a 20% reduction in car kilometres (from 2019 levels) by 2030 to assist in meeting interim greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets up to a final target of achieving ‘net zero’ by 2045.

The National Transport Strategy 2 (NTS2) sets the vision for the country’s transport system over the next 20 years to achieve a more sustainable, inclusive, safe and accessible transport system which helps to deliver a healthier, fairer and more prosperous Scotland for communities, businesses and visitors. At the heart of the NTS2 is the recognition that there needs to be a step-change in behaviour and provision of attractive, affordable, accessible, and sustainable travel options. Embedded within the NTS2 is the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy that prioritises walking, wheeling, cycling, public transport and shared transport options in preference to single occupancy private car use in decision making, and the Sustainable Investment Hierarchy that prioritises future transport investment aimed at reducing the need to travel unsustainably, maintaining and safely operating existing assets and making better use of existing capacity ahead of targeted infrastructure improvements.

More specific to the A96 transport corridor, current policies and strategies demonstrate a focus on strengthening and enhancing multimodal connections through targeted infrastructure investment, particularly for underserved rural areas. These multimodal connections will play an important role in supporting both the emerging and future planned growth as set out in regional and local development plans. Improvements to both the trunk road and rail network are also highlighted as being essential to facilitate a sustainable and just transition towards meeting the ambitious climate change targets as set by Scottish Government. Safety and congestion concerns are also identified at the regional and local level in the relevant development plans and transport strategies along the length of the transport corridor.

The relationship between the A96 Trunk Road and local communities and businesses is identified as being pivotal. Any enhancement of the current transport corridor will contribute towards successfully achieving strategic objectives and priorities for transport and other complementary sectors.

Problems and Opportunities

The Case for Change, published in December 2022, identified the transport problems and opportunities relevant to the study area, which were based upon a number of data analyses including those collected for the relevant context sections of the Case for Change, stakeholder engagement workshops and a public consultation survey. The identified problems and opportunities were also used in the development of the TPOs, and subsequently helped to inform the generation of a long list of potential option suggestions. A brief summary of the key problems and opportunities is presented in Table 2.1 and Table 2.2 respectively. For further information on the identification and evidence behind the problems and opportunities, reference should be made to the published A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/initial-appraisal-case-for-change-december-2022-a96-corridor-review/ ).

Table 2.1: Key Problems Identified
Key Problem	Description of Problem
Safety and Resilience	For the five-year period pre COVID-19 (2015-19 inclusive), the average accident rate along the A96 Trunk Road was generally lower for the majority of sections of the A96 when compared to the national average for all Trunk A-roads in Scotland for both for Personal Injury Accidents (PIAs) and Killed or Seriously Injured (KSI) accidents. There are, however, sections of the A96 Trunk Road where the accident rates are higher than the national average. Accident rates on the A96 in Keith are almost double the national average (at 1.9 times higher) and higher than the national average in Forres (1.3 times higher), with KSI rates on the A96 also higher in the two towns at 4.8 times the national average in Keith and 3.1 times in Forres. Some rural sections of the A96 also have a KSI rate above the national average, including between Hardmuir and Forres (1.4 times the national average), between Fochabers and Keith (1.1 times the national average), between Keith and East of Huntly (1.3 times the national average) and between Kintore and Craibstone (1.1 times the national average). Some diversion routes recommended in response to accidents and other road closures are very long and increase journey times significantly. For example, road closures on the A96 close to Huntly, which occurred nine times between 2016 and 2021, result in a recommended 65km diversion route via Banff. The rail network within the corridor also demonstrates a level of unreliability in services at key destinations. The Scotrail Public Performance Measure information for November 2019 revealed approximately 20% of services arriving or terminating at Aberdeen, Inverness and Inverurie were over five minutes delayed. Although the PPM of these three stations is in line with some other major stations across Scotland, it fell short of the rolling average target of 92.5% and all three were below the national average for this period.
Socio-Economic and Location of Services	Employment and key services, including large hospitals and higher education facilities, tend to be located in Aberdeen, Inverness and Elgin. Almost half of the total jobs in the transport appraisal study area are found within these three locations. Outside of the three most populous localities, people are more likely to travel over 10km to work, thus likely to limit the potential for active travel. Cycling is used for less than 5% of travel to work trips for all distances, whereas walking is used for over 50% of trips under 2km, but only between 4-8% of trips between 2km and 10km depending on the local authority area. Considering the travel distances between the three key economic centres and the other settlements in the transport appraisal study area, travelling by active travel modes is relatively unattractive.
Public Transport Accessibility	Outside of Aberdeen, the use of bus for commuting to work is significantly lower than the national average of 10%. This is true in larger settlements such as Inverness (6%) and Elgin (3%), as well as towns such as Nairn (5%) and Lossiemouth (6%) and smaller towns like Keith (4%) and Huntly (4%). The Scottish Accessibility to Bus Indicator (SABI) indicates that accessibility to bus is low outside of the urban areas of Aberdeen and parts of Inverness (SABI assigns a score to each datazone across Scotland based on the availability and frequency of bus services for both a weekday and weekend. Datazones are comparatively ranked against each other to give an indication of performance relevant to the rest of the country). There are also physical accessibility issues at some rail stations, including Nairn, Huntly, Insch and Inverurie such as platform access not being completely step-free that affects usage. Nearly 15% of the population in the transport appraisal study area cannot access key services such as major hospitals or higher education within two hours by public transport. Moray and Aberdeenshire both have particularly low accessibility to these services, which is partly linked to the rural nature of these areas and that people may not be within typical walking distance thresholds to public transport stops to access the network.
Competitiveness of Public Transport with Other Modes	Journey times are not competitive for bus in relation to train and car for longer trips across the transport appraisal study area. A journey between Aberdeen and Inverness for example is scheduled to take around three and a half hours by bus but estimated to take around three hours by car and under two hours thirty minutes by train, with journey times consistently higher by bus between towns along the route as well. The cost of rail and some long-distance bus trips in commuter zones is high in relation to car fuel costs (as at March 2022). Public consultation as part of the A96 Corridor Review has also indicated that the perception of delay and a lack of multimodal integration combined with the perceived high cost of fares, particularly for rail, makes public transport in the transport appraisal study area unattractive to the public.
Travel Choice and Behaviour	The number of homes without access to a private vehicle in the transport appraisal study area is consistently less than the national average. Within the transport appraisal study area, Aberdeenshire has a high-level of access to a private vehicle, with approximately 90% of households having access to at least one vehicle and over half having access to multiple vehicles. There is a greater availability of car in rural areas than in urban settlements. Travel to work data suggests those in the age brackets of 35 to 49 and 50 to 64 are more reliant on cars. With an aging population across the transport appraisal study area, particularly in the more rural areas, the reliance on private car use is anticipated to increase.
Health and Environment	Transport is a major contributor to CO ₂ emissions along the A96 corridor, particularly in the Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas. Transport contributes over 35% of the total emissions in both Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas and between 25% and 30% in Aberdeen City and Moray. This is potentially an outcome of the reliance on private vehicles for travel, longer travel distances and the levels of road-based freight movements. The A96 route travels through the centre of towns including Elgin and Keith, which puts a relatively large proportion of the local population in these towns in close proximity to potential noise pollution and transport emissions that affect local air quality.

Table 2.2: Key Opportunities Identified
Key Opportunity	Description of Opportunity
Sustainable Economic Growth	The key industries in the region, including food and drink production and agriculture, forestry and fishing have a high proportion of goods movements, as evidenced through the relatively high proportion of Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) on the A96. Alternative fuelled vehicles and a shift to rail freight would help reduce transport related emissions and improve local air quality. There has been a growth in tourism spend in recent years and in 2019 the sector boosted the Highland and Grampian economies by almost £2.5bn (Highland by £1.553bn and Grampian by £856m). The rise of whisky tourism and the Speyside Whisky Trail are major contributors to the tourism sector, with distilleries welcoming over two million visitors in 2018 representing growth of 56% from 2010. There are opportunities to change the way in which visitors travel to, from and around the region. Walking and cycling tourism is one such opportunity and has the potential to create further economic growth by attracting new visitors to the region.
Improving Safety	There is the opportunity to reduce accidents and accident severities on the A96 Trunk Road. There are a number of sections of the road where KSI accident rates are high when compared to the national average for equivalent urban or rural trunk roads (see Safety and Resilience above). Improving safety for road users would contribute to meeting the targets set out in Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 to achieve the 50% reduction in people killed or seriously injured (60% reduction for children). Reducing the level of car-based kilometres travelled would also contribute to a reduction in accident numbers.
Health and Environment Impacts of Travel	Reducing the use of car travel, particularly for short trips that could be made by active travel, would help reduce the transport contribution to CO ₂ emissions. Fewer vehicle kilometres travelled would also improve the local air quality in communities which the A96 Trunk Road passes through. Increasing the quantity as well as improving the quality and reliability of charging infrastructure would help assist the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), a market that has shown large growth in the past decade and continues to rise, to help reduce carbon emissions and improve local air quality. Alternative fuelled freight vehicles and buses would also reduce emissions, along with the electrification of rail. Energy production methods are diversifying rapidly into renewable markets that provide cleaner energy that could help fuel EVs and electrify the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line.
Travel Choice and Behaviour	Travel choices could be increased through better integration of modes and the provision of more demand-responsive options in areas with low public transport provision. Physical accessibility at rail stations could also be improved to reduce the reliance on cars for longer trips. Active travel will continue to play a key role in the transition to sustainable and zero carbon travel by reducing the reliance on private vehicles. Within and between towns along the A96 corridor, there is the potential to increase active travel with connections by safe walking and cycling infrastructure. Increasing digital connectivity and technology advancements in broadband and mobile connectivity provide opportunities to reduce the need to travel. Other opportunities brought on by technology can help to integrate public transport and provide better information systems to improve the quality of journeys.

Transport Planning Objectives

The A96 Corridor Review TPOs have been aligned to those set at the national level in STPR2 which are in turn closely aligned with the four priorities, 12 outcomes and 24 policies contained within the NTS2 ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/national-transport-strategy-2/ ). To reflect the nature of the A96 corridor, the overarching TPOs have been amended slightly from the national-level STPR2 objectives.

A series of sub-objectives has been developed to align with the overall direction of the TPOs, and hence the STPR2 national objectives. These sub-objectives complement the overarching TPOs, but with a particular focus on the specific evidence-based problems and opportunities for the A96 corridor.

The TPOs for the A96 Corridor Review are presented in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3: A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives
A96 Corridor Review TPOs	A96 Corridor Review Sub-objectives
TPO1 – A sustainable strategic transport corridor that contributes to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.	Reduce transport related emissions through a shift to more sustainable modes of transport. Increase the active travel mode share for shorter everyday journeys.
TPO 2 – An inclusive strategic transport corridor that improves the accessibility of public transport in rural areas for access to healthcare, employment and education.	Increase public transport mode share by improving connections between sustainable modes of transport. Reduce the reliance on private car for access to healthcare, employment and education. Improve mobility and inclusion, recognising the specific needs of disadvantaged and vulnerable users.
TPO 3 – A coherent strategic transport corridor that enhances communities as places, supporting health, wellbeing and the environment.	Reduce demand for unsustainable travel by enhancing placemaking within settlements along the A96. Increase active travel mode share for both shorter and longer distance journeys. Reduce real and perceived severance caused by the strategic transport network both between and within communities. Protect or enhance the natural environment and heritage.
TPO 4 – An integrated strategic transport system that contributes towards sustainable inclusive growth throughout the corridor and beyond.	Increase sustainable access to labour markets and key centres for employment, education and training. Increase the mode share of freight by sustainable modes. Increase competitiveness of key sectors by improving journey time reliability for commercial transport.
TPO 5 – A reliable and resilient strategic transport system that is safe for users.	Reduce the accident rates and severity of transport related casualties in line with reduction targets. Improve resilience to disruption (from climate change events and maintenance activities) through adaptation of the corridor’s trunk road and rail infrastructure.

Option Generation and Sifting

Option Development Process

In keeping with the principles of STAG, the appraisal included a robust method to generate, ‘clean’ and sift option suggestions, ensuring a broad range of options across all modes were initially considered. The approach to the generation of interventions for the A96 Corridor Review is summarised in Figure 2.2.

An infographic showing the option generation and sifting process for the A96 Corridor Review in keeping with STAG. The process starts with the generation of a Long List of Options, it progresses to option cleaning before sifting of options for further appraisal. — Figure 2.2: Approach to Option Generation and Sifting

Generation of Long List of ‘Options’

The long list of initial suggestions for options was generated based on a range of sources, including a review of options identified from previous studies, as well as feedback received from stakeholder workshops and the public consultation survey. Options were also generated by the Jacobs AECOM A96 Corridor Review project team as part of the process.

Overall, the total number of suggestions generated was 11,091.

Option Cleaning

Within the 11,091 individual suggestions, there was a significant number that were either duplicate entries, or were too vague or ambiguous in their definition, or were submissions that could not be considered an ‘option’ (for example, those submissions that referenced non-transport related items). As such, an exercise was undertaken to ‘clean’ the long list.

Duplicate entries were identified, with a single ‘master option’ identified to represent all duplicated options. For example, there was a very high proportion of duplicate options for full or partial dualling of the A96 and bypasses. Removing these duplicates significantly lowered the total number of options retained for consideration as part of the subsequent sifting process.

Those submissions that could not be considered as options, either as a result of not being sufficiently well defined or being non-transport related items, were removed from the subsequent sifting process.

Following on from this cleaning process, a total of 227 options were retained as part of the ‘cleaned’ long list of options that formed the input to the Option Sifting process.

Option Sifting

Figure 2.3 demonstrates the option sifting process for the A96 Corridor Review, including the relevant criteria that were applied to the sifting of options at this stage.

Options were sifted out at this stage for one or more of the following reasons:

The option was out of scope based on the agreed set of definitions for the A96 Corridor Review (please refer to Appendix C of the A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/initial-appraisal-case-for-change-december-2022-a96-corridor-review/ )).
The option would not address the problems/opportunities in the region.
The option would incur significant deliverability risks.
The option is being progressed elsewhere, including through STPR2 at a national level, and this would be the most appropriate mechanism by which to progress this option.
The problems/opportunities would be better addressed through another option.
The option was rationalised with another, similar option.

Of the options retained, those that were similar or shared common elements were rationalised with each other to form the final list of retained options. A total of 227 options were considered, of which 177 were sifted out, leaving 50 options. Of these 50 options, 34 options were rationalised, leaving a final ‘short list’ of 16 options.

Retained Options

Following the sifting exercise, 16 options specific to the A96 Corridor Review remained to progress to Preliminary Appraisal. Table 2.4 lists and describes these options.

Table 2.4: List of Retained Options
Option	Mode of Transport	Description
Active Communities	Active Travel	Deliver networks of high-quality active travel routes and placemaking improvements within key communities along the A96 corridor such as Nairn, Forres, Elgin, Fochabers, Keith, Huntly and Inverurie.
Active Connections	Active Travel	Deliver high quality active travel linkages for people walking, wheeling and cycling between settlements along the A96 corridor, which would combine to form a continuous traffic-free path all the way from Inverness to Aberdeen, either directly adjacent to, or close to, the A96.
Active Hubs	Multimodal	The creation of a strategy for the delivery of active hubs within communities across the length of the A96 corridor.
Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Facilities	Multimodal	Improve public transport passenger facilities, including accessibility and quality enhancements at bus stations and railway stations.
Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride	Bus	Implement schemes targeted at delivering faster and more reliable journey times for bus passengers, coupled with the provision of new bus park and ride sites where appropriate.
Investment in Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) and Mobility as a Service (MaaS)	Public Transport	Improve access to travel opportunities in locations with low bus network connectivity or where conventional fixed route services may not be suitable or viable. In these areas, flexible services, such as Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) or Community Transport (CT), may be able to provide improved public transport links.
Introduction of Rail Freight Terminals	Freight	Facilitate the introduction, development and operation of rail freight terminals by the private sector at Inverness, Elgin and Keith, to facilitate freight movements to/from these locations by rail.
Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line	Rail	Three distinct improvements to the railway between Aberdeen and Inverness; linespeed improvements to cut journey times, the provision of passing loops to enable a more frequent passenger service and the provision of freight facilities to enable intermodal freight to operate.
Improved Parking Provision at Railway Stations	Rail	Enhance parking facilities at railway stations between Aberdeen and Inverness with the aim of encouraging the use of existing low carbon infrastructure for medium and long-distance travel along the corridor.
A96 Full Dualling (plus Targeted Trunk Road Improvements)	Road	Full dualling of the A96 between Hardmuir to Craibstone to address road safety concerns and provide resilience and reliability improvements for a key connection between Inverness and Aberdeen.
Targeted Road Safety Improvements	Road	Improving the safety performance of the A96 Trunk Road to address both real and perceived road safety concerns (with potential measures ranging from minor improvements through to partial dualling).
Elgin Bypass	Road	Improve the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 within the vicinity of Elgin through the provision of a bypass of the town.
Keith Bypass	Road	Improve the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 within the vicinity of Keith through the provision of a bypass of the town.
Inverurie Bypass	Road	Improve the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 within the vicinity of Inverurie through the provision of a bypass of the town.
Forres Bypass	Road	Improve the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 in Forres through the provision of a bypass within the vicinity of the town
A96 Electric Corridor	Technology	Provision of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities along the A96 corridor, its interfacing local roads as well as, where appropriate, strategic economic and transport hubs. This option will directly facilitate the dispensation of alternative sources of fuel for various modes of sustainable transport although it is recognised that the option is likely to focus on road vehicles.

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