Summary of the Case for Change (The Strategic Case)
Context
The Case for Change sets out the context of the A96 Corridor Review in relation to geography, policy, socio-economic considerations, environment, and transport. A summary of the key aspects from the Case for Change is presented in the following sections.
Geographical Context
The transport appraisal study area for the A96 Corridor Review, as defined within the Case for Change, is a geographically diverse area that includes Scotland’s two most northerly cities of Aberdeen and Inverness, urban areas and rural communities.
Policy Context
To establish the overall strategic fit of the A96 Corridor Review, key elements of relevant policies and strategies were reviewed at a national, regional and local level. This included the consideration of not only infrastructure planning and investment but also broader topic areas including Spatial Planning, Economic Development and Climate Change.
Through this comprehensive review, it is recognised that there is significant impetus, across all levels, to strengthen and enhance multimodal connections through targeted infrastructure investment. This is particularly relevant for underserved rural areas, that can support emerging and future levels of planned growth and to facilitate a sustainable and just transition towards meeting ambitious climate change targets.
The relationship between the A96 Trunk Road corridor between Hardmuir (to the east of Nairn) and Aberdeen and its interfacing local communities and businesses is identified as being pivotal. Any enhancement of the current transport corridor will both directly and indirectly contribute towards successfully achieving strategic objectives and priorities, including both those relating to transport itself but also other dependent and complementary sectors.
Socio-Economic Context
Most of the region’s population and employment opportunities are located within Aberdeen, Inverness and Elgin, which are also key hubs for economic activity. There is a trend of an aging population in the transport appraisal study area since 2012, with a growth in population aged 65 and over, particularly in rural settlements and areas. Industry is varied across the transport appraisal study area, but the Mining, Manufacturing and Utilities and the Human Health and Social Work sectors generally make up the highest proportion of roles (based on 2020 Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) employment data). Aberdeen has a high proportion of Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities roles, whereas the other three council areas that make up the transport appraisal study area have higher than average Construction and Agricultural, Forestry and Fishing employment.
Gross Value Added (GVA) within the region has experienced strong growth, with Aberdeen contributing over £10Bn to the economy in 2018. Economic activity is high across the transport appraisal study area with a lower than national average rate of unemployment. Deprivation is also generally low in the transport appraisal study area, particularly in rural Aberdeenshire, though in urban centres there are pockets of higher deprivation.
Environmental Context
There are a number of cultural, natural and heritage land designations throughout the environmental study area defined in the Case for Change that include: Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs), Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Special Protection Areas (SPAs). Within the environmental study area, the main sources of noise are from the A96 Trunk Road and the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line. In terms of air quality, the levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM 10 ) are generally well below the Air Quality Objective. There are no declared Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) within the environmental study area; however, there are three declared within the Aberdeen City Council area, all to the east of the Environmental study area, and one to the west within Inverness.
Transport Context
Private car is the dominant mode of transport within the transport appraisal study area and is very high in Aberdeenshire and towns surrounding Aberdeen. Compared to the national benchmark, bus is a popular mode in Aberdeen but low across the rest of the transport appraisal study area. Rail use is low across the entire transport appraisal study area for travel to work and there has been a trend of reducing use year on year since 2016.
Walking and cycling are popular in the transport appraisal study area, with areas in Aberdeen City, Moray and Highland all showing higher than national average use of active travel, though Aberdeenshire is well below this benchmark. Travel distances are often shorter in the largest urban areas of Aberdeen, Inverness and Elgin and the proportion of people who travel under 5km for work in the transport appraisal study area (39%) is higher than the national average (32%). Outside of these areas, travel distances are longer and often match the distance to the closest of the major economic centres: Aberdeen, Inverness, or Elgin. Over one fifth (22%) of people in Aberdeenshire travel over 20km to work, compared to the national average of just 13%.
Problems and Opportunities
Deriving evidence-based transport problems and opportunities is a critical element of the Case for Change. They have been identified from a range of sources including a review of existing policy and strategy documents, data analysis and extensive stakeholder engagement. For further detail on the identified problems and opportunities, please refer to the A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/initial-appraisal-case-for-change-december-2022-a96-corridor-review/ ).
Problems
The following transport-related problems have been identified for the transport appraisal study area, with evidence to support the problem and opportunity themes provided in this section. The identified problem themes are:
- Safety and Resilience
- Socio-Economic and Location of Services
- Public Transport Accessibility
- Competitiveness of Public Transport with Other Modes
- Travel Choice and Behaviour
- Health and Environment.
Within these themes, the key problems of note are:
Safety and Resilience : From the analysis of accident data, the rural sections of the A96 Trunk Road have overall Personal Injury Accident (PIA) rates lower than or similar to the national average based on all trunk A-roads of the equivalent type. There are, however, selected urban sections of the A96 Trunk Road for which the accident rate is higher than the national average, with specific locations in Forres and Keith. The rate of Killed or Seriously Injured (KSI) is also significantly higher in these two towns than the national average, nearly five times the national average in Keith and just above three times the national average in Forres. A number of rural sections of the A96 Trunk Road also have a KSI rate higher than the national average, these being between Hardmuir and Forres, Fochabers and Keith, Keith and East of Huntly, and Kintore and Craibstone.
The A96 is affected by closures and delays due to accidents, maintenance, and weather events. Recommended diversion routes can be lengthy throughout the corridor, up to approximately 65 km depending on where the closure occurs. The economic impact of closures can be significant for heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and the movement of goods.
The rail network also demonstrates a certain level of unreliability. Services at Aberdeen, Inverness and Inverurie all have a Public Performance Measure (PPM) percentage worse than the national average pre-COVID-19. This is likely to contribute to the relatively low levels of rail mode share.
Socio-Economic and Location of Services : Employment and other key services, tend to be found in the three most populous and key economic locations within the study area: Aberdeen, Inverness and Elgin. Almost half of the total jobs in the transport appraisal study area are found within these three locations. Considering the travel distances between these three key economic centres and the other settlements in the transport appraisal study area, travelling by sustainable modes is relatively unattractive.
The key economic centres contain essential facilities such as major hospitals as well as a much greater density of education facilities. In addition, almost half of the total jobs in the transport appraisal study area are found within these three locations. Outside of these three areas, people making a trip to a workplace are more likely to travel over 10km, thus limiting the potential for active travel. Cycling is used for less than 5% of travel to work trips for all distances, whereas walking is used for over 50% of trips under 2km, but only between 4% and 8% of trips between 2km and 10km depending on the local authority area.
Public Transport Accessibility: Evidence across the transport appraisal study area suggests, that outside of Aberdeen, the level of public transport use is low in comparison to the rest of the country. Outside of Aberdeen City, the use of bus for commuting to work is significantly lower than the national average of 10%. This is true in larger settlements such as Inverness (6%) and Elgin (3%), as well as smaller towns such as Nairn (5%) and Lossiemouth (6%) and remote towns like Keith (4%) and Huntly (4%). The Scottish Accessibility to Bus Indicator (SABI) indicates that across the transport appraisal study area, the accessibility to bus is low outside of the urban areas of Aberdeen and parts of Inverness. Rail station accessibility is also an issue, as raised by stakeholders and the public, with Nairn, Huntly, Insch and Inverurie noted for not having completely step-free access to all platforms, potentially limiting patronage.
Nearly 15% of the population in the transport appraisal study area cannot access key services such as hospitals with emergency departments, or higher education within two hours by public transport. Moray and Aberdeenshire both have low accessibility to these services which is partly linked to the rural nature of these areas and that people may not be within typical walking thresholds to public transport stops to access the network. As such, public transport is not an option for many trip purposes within the transport appraisal study area.
Competitiveness of Public Transport with Other Modes : Journey times are not competitive for bus in comparison with train and car for longer trips across the transport appraisal study area. A journey between Aberdeen and Inverness for example is scheduled to take around three and a half hours by bus but estimated to take around three hours by car and under two hours thirty minutes by train, with journey times consistently higher by bus between towns along the route as well. The cost of rail and some long-distance bus trips in commuter zones is high in relation to car fuel costs (as at March 2022). Public consultation as part of the A96 Corridor Review has also indicated that the perception of delay and a lack of multimodal integration combined with the perceived high cost of fares, particularly for rail, makes public transport in the transport appraisal study area unattractive to users.
Travel Choice and Behaviour : The number of homes without access to a private vehicle in the transport appraisal study area is consistently lower than the Scottish average. Aberdeenshire has a high level of access to a private vehicle, with approximately 90% of households in Aberdeenshire in the transport appraisal study area having access to at least one vehicle and over half have access to multiple vehicles. There is a greater availability of car in the rural areas across the transport appraisal study area. This, combined with the travel to work mode shares, indicates a reliance on private vehicles for travel.
Health and Environment : Transport is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions along the A96 corridor, particularly in the Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas. Transport contributes over 35% to total greenhouse gas emissions for both these LAs and between 25% and 30% in Aberdeen City and Moray. This is potentially an outcome of the reliance on private vehicles for travel, longer travel distances and the levels of road-based freight movements.
The route of the A96 travels through the centre of towns including Elgin and Keith, which puts a relatively large proportion of the population in close proximity to potential noise pollution and transport emissions that affect local air quality.
Opportunities
This section provides a summary of key opportunity themes identified for the A96 Corridor Review transport appraisal study area. The identified opportunity themes are:
- Sustainable Economic Growth
- Improving Safety
- Health and Environment Impacts of Travel
- Travel Choice and Behaviour.
Sustainable Economic Growth : There is an opportunity to support and enhance sustainable economic growth across the transport appraisal study area. The key industries in the region, including food and drink production and agriculture, forestry and fishing, have a high proportion of goods movement, as evidenced through the relatively high proportion of HGVs on the A96. A shift to more sustainable transport modes could improve journey time reliability, resulting in economic and environmental impacts, with trials being undertaken in recent years to increase the proportion of rail freight movements. Alternatively fuelled vehicles would also reduce the transport emissions and the contribution to air quality issues from the road-based movement of goods.
The transport appraisal study area has shown growth in tourism spend in recent years and in 2019 the sector boosted the Highland and Grampian economies by almost £2.5bn. The rise of whisky tourism and the Speyside Whisky Trail are major contributors to the tourism sector, with distilleries welcoming over two million visitors in 2018, representing growth of 56% from 2010. There are opportunities to change the way in which visitors travel to, from and within the region through improvements to the public transport network and active travel infrastructure. Walking and cycling tourism is one such opportunity and has the potential to create further economic growth by attracting new visitors to the region.
Improving Safety: There is the opportunity to reduce accidents and accident severities on the A96 Trunk Road. There are several sections of the road where KSI accident rates are high when compared to the national average for equivalent urban or rural trunk A-roads. Improving safety for road users would contribute to meeting the targets set out in Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 to achieve the 50% reduction in people killed or seriously injured (60% reduction for children). Reducing the level of car-based kilometres travelled would also contribute to a reduction in accident numbers.
Health and Environment Impacts of Travel : Reducing the use of car travel throughout the transport appraisal study area, particularly for short trips that could be made by active travel, would help reduce the transport contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer vehicle kilometres travelled would also improve the local air quality, with associated health benefits, in communities along the A96.
The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is underway and progressing rapidly but could be enhanced along the A96 by increasing the quantity and improving the quality and reliability of charging infrastructure. EVs would reduce road user greenhouse gas emissions and improve local air quality. Alternative fuelled freight vehicles and buses would also reduce emissions, along with the electrification of rail. Energy production in the areas that make up the transport appraisal study area is diversifying rapidly into renewable markets to provide cleaner energy that for example can help fuel EVs and potential electrification of the rail line between Aberdeen and Inverness.
Travel Choice and Behaviour : Travel choices throughout the transport appraisal study area could be increased through better integration of modes and the provision of more demand responsive options in areas with low provision. Physical accessibility at rail stations could also be improved to reduce the reliance on cars for longer trips.
Active travel will continue to play a key role in the transition to sustainable and zero carbon travel by reducing the reliance on private vehicles. In smaller, more remote areas and towns there is an opportunity to increase active travel with connections to safe walking and cycling infrastructure and subsequently reduce private vehicle trips.
Increasing digital connectivity and technology advancements in broadband and mobile connectivity provide opportunities to reduce the need to travel, for example, by allowing greater flexibility for homeworking. Other opportunities brought on by technology can help to integrate public transport and provide better information systems to improve the quality of journeys and enhance the travel experience.
Transport Planning Objectives
Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) are of central importance to the STAG process. In line with STAG, the TPOs are based on a comprehensive and evidence-based understanding of problems and opportunities, as summarised in section 2.2, and inform a clear and transparent appraisal of transport options. The TPOs are a key element of the appraisal process from initial option identification and sifting, through to preliminary and detailed appraisal and subsequent monitoring/evaluation.
The A96 Corridor Review TPOs have been aligned to those set at the national level in STPR2, supported by corridor specific sub-objectives. An overarching set of TPOs was established as part of STPR2, which are in turn closely aligned with the four priorities, 12 outcomes and 24 policies contained within the NTS2 ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/national-transport-strategy-2/ ). To reflect the nature of the A96 transport corridor, the overarching TPOs have been amended from the national-level STPR2 objectives.
A series of sub-objectives has been developed to align with the overall direction of the TPOs, and hence the STPR2 national objectives. These sub-objectives complement the overarching TPOs, but with a particular focus on the specific evidence-based problems and opportunities for the A96 transport corridor.
The A96 Corridor Review TPOs and sub-objectives are presented in Table 2.1.
| A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) | A96 Corridor Review Sub-Objectives |
|---|---|
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TPO1 – A sustainable strategic transport corridor that contributes to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target. |
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TPO 2 – An inclusive strategic transport corridor that improves the accessibility of public transport in rural areas for access to healthcare, employment, and education. |
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TPO 3 – A coherent strategic transport corridor that enhances communities as places, supporting health, wellbeing, and the environment. |
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TPO 4 – An integrated strategic transport system that contributes towards sustainable inclusive growth throughout the corridor and beyond. |
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TPO 5 – A reliable and resilient strategic transport system that is safe for users. |
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Option Generation and Sifting
Option Development Process
In keeping with the principles of STAG, the appraisal included a robust method to generate, ‘clean’ and sift option suggestions, ensuring a broad range of options across all modes were initially considered. The approach to the generation of interventions for the A96 Corridor Review is summarised in Figure 2.1.
Generation of Long List of ‘Options’
The long list of initial suggestions for options was generated based on a range of sources, including a review of options identified from previous studies, as well as feedback received from stakeholder workshops and the public consultation survey. Options were also generated by the Jacobs AECOM A96 Corridor Review project team as part of the process.
Overall, the total number of suggestions generated was 11,091.
Option Cleaning
Within the 11,091 individual suggestions, there was a significant number that were either duplicate entries, or were too vague or ambiguous in their definition, or were submissions that could not be considered an ‘option’ (for example, those submissions that referenced non-transport related items). As such, an exercise was undertaken to ‘clean’ the long list.
Duplicate entries were identified, with a single ‘master option’ identified to represent all duplicated options. For example, there was a very high proportion of duplicate options for full or partial dualling of the A96 and bypasses. Removing these duplicates significantly lowered the total number of options retained for consideration as part of the subsequent sifting process.
Those submissions that could not be considered as options, either as a result of not being sufficiently well defined or being non-transport related items, were removed from the subsequent sifting process.
Following on from this cleaning process, a total of 227 options were retained as part of the ‘cleaned’ long list of options that formed the input into the Option Sifting process.
Option Sifting
Figure 2.2 demonstrates the option sifting process for the A96 Corridor Review, including the relevant criteria that were applied to the sifting of options at this stage.
Options were sifted at this stage for one or more of the following reasons:
- The option was out of scope based on the agreed set of definitions for the A96 Corridor Review (please refer to Appendix C of the A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/initial-appraisal-case-for-change-december-2022-a96-corridor-review/ )).
- The option would not address the problems/opportunities in the region.
- The option would incur significant deliverability risks.
- The option is being progressed elsewhere, including through STPR2 at a national level, and this would be the most appropriate mechanism by which to progress this option.
- The problems/opportunities would be better addressed through another option.
- The option was rationalised with another, similar option.
Of the options retained, those that were similar or shared common elements were rationalised with each other to form the final list of retained options. A total of 227 options were considered, of which 177 were sifted out, leaving 50 options. Of these 50 options, 34 options were rationalised, leaving a final ‘short list’ of 16 options.
Retained Options
Following the sifting exercise, 16 options specific to the A96 Corridor Review remained to progress to Preliminary Appraisal. Table 2.2 lists and describes these options.
| Option | Mode of Transport | Description |
|---|---|---|
|
Active Communities |
Active Travel |
Deliver networks of high quality active travel routes and placemaking improvements within key communities along the A96 corridor such as Nairn, Forres, Elgin, Fochabers, Keith, Huntly, and Inverurie. |
|
Active Connections |
Active Travel |
Deliver high quality active travel linkages for people walking, wheeling, and cycling between settlements along the A96 corridor, which would combine to form a continuous traffic-free path all the way from Inverness to Aberdeen, either directly adjacent to, or close to, the A96. |
|
Active Hubs |
Multimodal |
The creation of a strategy for the delivery of active hubs within communities across the length of the A96 corridor. |
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Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Facilities |
Multimodal |
Improve public transport passenger facilities, including accessibility and quality enhancements at bus stations and railway stations. |
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Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride |
Bus |
Implement schemes targeted at delivering faster and more reliable journey times for bus passengers, coupled with the provision of new bus Park and Ride sites where appropriate. |
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Investment in Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) and Mobility as a Service (MaaS) |
Public Transport |
Improve access to travel opportunities in locations with low bus network connectivity or where conventional fixed route services may not be suitable or viable. In these areas, flexible services, such as Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) or Community Transport (CT), may be able to provide improved public transport links. |
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Introduction of Rail Freight Terminals |
Freight |
Facilitate the introduction, development, and operation of rail freight terminals by the private sector at Inverness, Elgin and Keith, to facilitate freight movements to/from these locations by rail. |
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Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line |
Rail |
Three distinct improvements to the railway between Aberdeen and Inverness: linespeed improvements to cut journey times, the provision of passing loops to enable a more frequent passenger service, and the provision of freight facilities to enable intermodal freight to operate. |
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Improved Parking Provision at Railway Stations |
Rail |
Enhance parking facilities at railway stations between Aberdeen and Inverness with the aim of encouraging the use of existing low carbon infrastructure for medium and long-distance travel along the corridor. |
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A96 Full Dualling (plus Targeted Trunk Road Improvements) |
Road |
Full dualling of the A96 between Hardmuir to Craibstone to address road safety concerns and provide resilience and reliability improvements for a key connection between Inverness and Aberdeen. |
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Targeted Road Safety Improvements |
Road |
Improving the safety performance of the A96 Trunk Road to address both real and perceived road safety concerns (with potential measures ranging from minor improvements through to partial dualling). |
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Elgin Bypass |
Road |
Improve the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 within the vicinity of Elgin through the provision of a bypass of the town. |
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Keith Bypass |
Road |
Improve the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 within the vicinity of Keith through the provision of a bypass of the town. |
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Inverurie Bypass |
Road |
Improve the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 within the vicinity of Inverurie through the provision of a bypass of the town. |
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Forres Bypass |
Road |
Improve the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 in Forres through the provision of a bypass within the vicinity of the town. |
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A96 Electric Corridor |
Technology |
Provision of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities along the A96 corridor, its interfacing local roads as well as, where appropriate, strategic economic and transport hubs. This option will directly facilitate the dispensation of alternative sources of fuel for various modes of sustainable transport although it is recognised that the option is likely to focus on road vehicles. |
The appraisal process is set out in the Strategic Business Case – Transport Appraisal Report (Draft) ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/strategic-business-case-transport-appraisal-report-draft-a96-corridor-review/ ) and summarised as part of the Socio-Economic Case in Chapter 3 of this report.