Executive Summary
This paper details the interim evaluation results of the removal of peak fares from the ScotRail network (Pilot) and covers the period from October 2023 to mid-May 2024. This report is being published alongside material being submitted to the Net Zero and Transport Committee of the Scottish Parliament in line with specific guidance received from the UK Office of the Statistics Regulator (OSR) in terms of the normal functioning of the Scottish Parliament during the UK pre-election period.
A detailed evaluation plan is in place to assess the impacts of the Pilot. This comprises several strands of analysis, of which some interim results are now available. The plan combines survey work – asking rail users and others about their experience and desktop statistical analysis. Work is ongoing to ensure that the final evaluation is as robust as possible but there remain significant challenges in establishing what would have happened if the Pilot had not taken place – the counterfactual - as the post-pandemic recovery means there is great uncertainty over the current baseline for travel demand in Scotland, and for rail in particular.
This interim assessment uses data up to 13 May 2024. It represents preliminary results and demonstrates that the impact of the Peak Rail Fares Pilot is still subject to significant uncertainty. Crucially, it indicates that the impact has changed over time with a greater impact in the first 3 months of the Pilot (after accounting for external events) than in the second 3 months and onwards. This is illustrated in the diagram below:
| Period | Actual demand over the period | Cumulative change in demand (journeys) estimated since removal of peak fares | Percentage change in demand estimated since removal of peak fares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 weeks | 17.8 m | 565,000 | 3.18% |
| 3 months | 20.5 m | 809,000 | 3.95% |
| 6 months | 39.8 m | -1,305,000 | -3.28% |
| To 13 May | 49.3 m | -1,627,000 | -3.29% |
It should be noted that ScotRail’s passenger figures were already increasing from the pandemic prior to the Pilot launching and it has been challenging to extrapolate the impact of the Pilot within the wider passenger revenue figures so these should be treated cautiously at this stage. Further work is being undertaken to ensure that the final assessment of the Pilot is as robust as possible.
The analysis suggests that Peak Fares had a positive impact over the first 3 months (and was accelerating during this time) but since January the response has been muted and demand has fallen below the current best available counterfactual (although demand is broadly similar in actual terms, the growth seen before the Pilot has not been maintained).
However, it does not mean that the Pilot has specifically caused a fall in demand, it simply shows that demand is lower than expected.
The assessment of the impact on demand is being finalised before reporting formally on the impact on revenue (the cost of the Pilot). However current ScotRail estimates suggest that the revenue impact remains within the £40m budget allocated.
There is some emerging evidence of behaviour change arising from the Pilot, from survey work undertaken in the initial period, including shifting of travel from off-peak to peak and mode shift from car to rail suggesting around one-third of existing rail users have made at least one rail journey previously made using another travel mode, with two-thirds of those journeys primarily from car. Of those new passengers identified as switching from other modes, it is assessed that 53% had previously used a car as a driver, and a third had switched from bus. But this should be considered in the context of a small overall increase in demand (over the initial 3 month period) – the vast majority of passengers were existing rail users making existing journeys. And in the context of that initial period showing positive demand impacts overall.
In summary, whilst the initial impact of the Pilot has been found to be somewhat positive, the impact on rail journeys since the start 2024 is significantly less pronounced and there is currently no strong evidence of its effectiveness in achieving mode shift, other than helping with cost of living issues for existing users. Analytical work is progressing, and a final evaluation will be produced in time for a decision to be made on whether the trial should be made permanent. This will include further survey work, continuing liaison with bus operators and a formal value for money assessment.