Sectors and Groups Affected
Introduction
This section provides a screening of the high-level potential impacts of the A96 Corridor Review interventions on various sectors and groups such as businesses, organisations, and consumers. This is based on the screening guide shown in Table 2-1 which is based on the assessment questions from the Scottish Government’s BRIA template. The assessment considers appraisal work carried out on Full Dualling and the packages whilst also considering baseline data and evidence for sectors and groups affected.
A96 Full Dualling – Potential Impacts
Businesses
As discussed in Chapter 5: Baseline Summary, the A96 is currently dominated by car journeys for non-work purposes, rather than HGV or LGV trips which are more likely to be for business use. Therefore, the congestion and traffic issues discussed in the Case for Change Report may be exacerbated by these car trips, which may in turn be negatively impacting business trips.
Traffic modelling shows that by dualling the road, it is likely that delays would decrease, improving reliability of the trunk road network.
Industries such as food and drink production, and agriculture and fishing are all prominent in the area and rely on the A96 for the movement of goods to maintain business productivity. It is likely that these industries are most likely to be affected by changes to the A96. Improving the reliability of the trunk road network could be critical for those industries transporting perishable goods.
Dualling the road may also encourage more businesses to use the A96 than currently do, and therefore could enable an increase in competition for businesses currently using the A96.
Local Authorities
Transport Scotland is likely to be the asset owner on completion of construction and is readily capable of arranging the operation and maintenance of the A96 dual carriageway as part of the wider trunk road network. It is assumed that ownership of the sections of the existing A96 that would in effect be ‘bypassed’ as a result of the option would pass to the relevant local authority.
For local authorities to assume responsibility for ownership of sections of the A96, this could require additional time, resourcing, and costs. However, this may provide cost savings for the local authorities if traffic is displaced from other local roads. The effect on local authority revenues, such as Business Rates and Council Tax, from changes in the scale of location of economic activity is unknown at this stage of appraisal.
Consumers
The increase in LGV trips along the A96 over time suggests that residents rely on goods and services provided by these trips. Consumers may experience increased access to these services if journey times and reliability are improved.
Maintenance and upgrading of the strategic road network will help ensure a reliable supply of goods along the A96 Trunk Road.
Organisations in the third sector
Impacts are expected to align with impacts to businesses discussed above.
Trade
The food and drink industry in Scotland has ambitions to grow significantly by 2030, through increasing output and exports, as well as productivity. In the north of Scotland, Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen City and Moray account for a significant amount of Scotland’s food and drink output, with the industry directly and indirectly supporting a large volume of employment in the region. This option would provide additional capacity for road-based trips, which is currently the most commonly used mode of transport for industry, improving the resilience and reliability of this key route and supporting the movement of goods.
EU Alignment
No impacts identified.
Digital Impact Test
It is clear in the Digital Strategy for Scotland ( Scottish Government (2022) Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation. ) that the Scottish Government recognises the importance of changing digital technologies and markets. From a transport perspective, investment in digital technology can be more effective at managing traffic congestion than improving connectivity on roads. ( London School of Economics (2020) Technology more effective at managing traffic congestion than building more roads. ) However, this option does not reflect the importance of these digital technologies.
Legal Aid Impact Test
No impacts identified.
Transport Packages Assessment
Businesses
Evidence suggests that the majority of trips along the A96 are non-business related and short in length and therefore could be facilitated with active travel. Providing suitable active travel routes could encourage a move away from car usage along the A96 for these short journeys, and therefore free up the road for business vehicles.
If the A96 were to have fewer cars travelling on it, it is likely that journey times would reduce for HGVs and LGVs, saving businesses time and money and increasing competitiveness.
Some businesses, sectors, markets, products, or services may be affected by the infrastructure provision for public transport if, for example, it removes space for other travel modes (adverse effect) or improves access for a wider range of employees and consumers (positive effect).
If public transport is improved and made more accessible, people may begin to choose to use it over private vehicles. This could reduce the number of cars on the road and free up road space, making it easier for HGVs and LGVs to travel. Facilitating more business travel in this way could increase competitiveness in the local and national market.
The A96 Electric Corridor seeks to improve the provision of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities along the A96 corridor. Businesses supplying fuel, such as petrol stations, may be disproportionately impacted by this intervention, as an increase in electric vehicles would reduce the need for consumers to purchase petrol. However, with a shift to net zero expected in Scotland, it is likely that petrol-fuelled vehicles will be phased out by the government in coming years. ( Scottish Government (2020) Climate Change Plan )
It is possible that car use may increase with the introduction of an Electric Corridor. This is because electric cars are typically cheaper to fuel and so more people may opt to use cars to travel. This could worsen traffic and congestion and impact on vehicles using the A96 for business.
The UK Government has set the target of 2040 for all new HGVs to be zero emission, which is five years after the target of 2035 for cars and vans. ( HM Government (2021) UK confirms pledge for zero-emission HGVs by 2040 and unveils new chargepoint design ) Therefore, HGVs may not benefit from electric vehicle infrastructure as soon as other vehicles.
However, through enhancing and expanding the network of alternative refuelling infrastructure for electric and/or hydrogen vehicles, and in turn providing operating benefits, there is the potential to move existing road-based freight onto more sustainable alternative fuelled vehicles. This could aid businesses in achieving their net zero targets.
In addition, modelling shows that the A96 is a significant freight route, and many freight trips are not destined for the towns that would be bypassed with this intervention. Approximately 90% of HGVs on the A96 travel through Forres and Keith. Bypassing towns such as Forres and Keith is likely to improve journey times for these HGV trips, removing the need to travel through multiple towns.
The bypasses however may also result in an increase in the use of private vehicles due to the reduction in congestion.
Rail network improvements seek to facilitate the movement of goods via rail freight. Businesses and enterprises that currently transport goods over medium to long distances via road could benefit from a shift to rail freight as a result of the linespeed increases, additional passing loops and provision of freight terminals.
Rail freight is a key component of the rail sector’s contribution to Scotland’s economy. The provision of rail freight terminals is expected to enhance economic growth and private sector investment across Scotland.
The reliability of freight journeys would be improved if they transferred to rail as they would avoid congestion and potential accidents. Dedicated rail freight facilities could facilitate the integration of transport modes that move goods, particularly those that are moved via road. Benefits are more likely to be realised for longer distances where rail freight is both more competitive and advantageous.
Local Authorities
Transport Scotland is identified to be the responsible asset owner for any intervention introduced on the trunk road network, whereas local authorities would likely be responsible for assets on local roads. It is anticipated that the asset owners would take on the operation and maintenance associated with any intervention, which would have ongoing costs, though third parties or a collaborative approach between asset owners may also be utilised for ongoing operation and maintenance.
Consumers
By enabling more opportunities for business travel and increasing competitiveness, the availability of goods in the market may increase, providing benefits to consumers.
A potential benefit to consumers is an increased range of travel options. For example, options for public transport and active travel may increase the availability of transport for consumers by making services more accessible and user friendly.
If measures are in place to introduce concessionary travel, there may be potential issues associated with data storage of those eligible for concessionary fares.
Organisations in the Third Sector
To implement some interventions, it is likely that organisations such as Sustrans will be involved for some measures, particularly those that interact with the National Cycle Network. Other active travel organisations may also be involved, such as Living Streets.
Trade
With fewer cars on the roads and the potential for increased business travel, intra-UK trade may increase with the improved ability of commodities to transport goods.
Encouraging the use of electric vehicles could increase sales and trade of the vehicles, both internationally and in the UK.
The provision of bypasses along the A96 could make the road more attractive for the transportation of goods. This could boost trade within Scotland and the UK as a whole.
EU Alignment
No impacts identified.
Digital Impact Test
There is potential for online transactions to be introduced when accessing active travel schemes such as bike hire/loan schemes. This could have implications for consumers with regards to payment methods and for those responsible for implementation and maintenance of any related interventions and payment systems.
There may also be a need for online or digital transactions to facilitate public transport ticketing options. This could have potential implications on public transport operators and consumers with regards to changes to payment systems. It could also impact on local authorities with regards to concessionary fare payment methods.
Legal Aid Impact Test
No impacts identified.