Baseline Summary

Introduction

The key information which supports the assessment presented in this report has been developed throughout the corridor review process with a full evidence base prepared as part of the SEqIA Scoping Report .

The baseline includes evidence on those living, working, visiting and travelling through the area, drawing on a range of relevant data from the National Records for Scotland, 2021 Scottish Census (as the most recent available Census dataset at the time of writing), the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2020 ( Scottish Government (2020). Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020 ) and additional sources including the Scottish Household Survey and other transport statistics from Transport Scotland research. Where available, local area datasets have also been interrogated. It also draws on research relating to groups covered by the FSDA (for example, socio-economically disadvantaged groups) to identify the key issues within a transport context.

The FSDA Study Area

For analysis purposes, a FSDA ‘study area’ has been created as shown in Appendix A, comprising wards that intersect with the A96 corridor. Wards included in FSDA study area: Inverness Milburn Ward; Culloden and Ardersier Ward; Nairn and Cawdor Ward; Forres Ward; Heldon and Laich Ward; Elgin City North Ward; Elgin City South Ward; Fochabers Lhanbryde Ward ;Keith and Cullen Ward, Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford Ward; West Garioch Ward; Inverurie and District Ward; East Garioch Ward; Dyce/Bucks burn/Danestone Ward; Nothfield/Mastrick North Ward; Hilton/Woodside/Stockethill Ward Midstocket/Rosemount Ward; George St/Harbour Ward.

Four council areas were identified within the FSDA study area:

• Aberdeenshire Council
• Aberdeen City Council
• The Highland Council
• Moray Council.

The A96 Inverness to Nairn (including Nairn Bypass) scheme does not form part of the A96 Corridor Review as it has been through the statutory process and has received ministerial consent, with Made Orders published on 22 February 2024. Interventions within Nairn itself, however, have been included in the transport intervention packages in the appraisal.

Existing Transport Network and Travel Patterns

The entire length of the A96 Trunk Road is serviced by a bus route between Inverness and Aberdeen, with local services available in some of the larger towns along the route. Community transport and demand-responsive transport services are operated within each of the local authorities, although coverage is limited, with membership often required.

The rail line between Inverness and Aberdeen generally follows the alignment of the A96 Trunk Road and includes 12 stations, including both Aberdeen and Inverness.

There are several on and off-road active travel corridors in the study area, many being local networks, alongside the NCN 1 long-distance cycle route. This also connects to NCN 195 in Aberdeen and NCN 7 south of Inverness and forms part of the National Cycle Network. Traffic-free parts of the routes exist in small sections but for longer travel between settlements and towns, it is necessary to travel on-road.

Socio-Economic Disadvantage

Context

Socio-economic disadvantage is a multi-faceted issue, and in the context of transport, can affect communities that are deprived, low-income, belong to certain social classes and/or experience existing structural and institutional disadvantages. A critical aspect of socio-economic inequality is minimising child and adult poverty, which is key for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

Deprivation

On the whole, the A96 Corridor Review area does not experience relatively high levels of deprivation. However, pockets of deprivation can be found along the corridor, particularly in more urban areas and parts of Aberdeen and Inverness. Not every person in a highly deprived area will consider themselves to be deprived and likewise, there will be some deprived people living in the least deprived areas. 48% of the most deprived households (SIMD quintile 1) do not have access to a car and are twice as likely to use the bus to travel to work as households in the least deprived three quintiles ( Transport Scotland (2020) Transport and Travel in Scotland 2019: Results from the Scottish Household Survey ) .

Skills, Employment and Income

The latest local level household income estimates show that in 2018, the average household income in Aberdeenshire was over £835 per week, whereas the other three local authority areas in the study area were between £704-715 ( Scottish Government (2018) Local Level Household Income Estimates ) . The Scotland average is just under £705 per week so the average for each LA within the A96 Corridor Review study area outperforms the national average. The major towns and cities generally contain a higher proportion of lower income datazones than the rural areas along the A96.

At a regional level, The Highland Council reported one of the highest employment rate estimates of all Scottish local authorities between 2020-21 (77.6%), sitting above the national average of 72.8%. The Highland Council also had the highest national employment rate for young people (69.9%) while Aberdeen City had the lowest youth employment rate (39.6%) nationally ( Scottish Government (2021) Scotland’s Labour Market: People, Places and Regions ) .

Evidence shows that access to public transport is critical for low-income families to access essential services, such as education, employment and childcare services. Access to transport is shaped by three key factors: affordability, accessibility, and individual household circumstances ( Poverty Alliance/Transport Scotland (2021) Transport and Child Poverty – beyond the pandemic. ) .Transport often represents a significant cost to those that carry out low-paid, low-skilled or ‘atypical’ work that involves irregular shifts or hours and has been cited as unmanageable for families and frequently causing anxiety ( Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2018) Tackling transport-related barriers to employment in low-income neighbourhoods ) . Being able to access education, employment and training are critical for low income households as a means of escaping poverty, as well as for their general wellbeing and improved access to transport is a key enabler to this ( Poverty Alliance (2021) Transport system unaffordable for too many people in the grip of poverty, new report finds ) .

For low-income individuals specifically, cost is the most significant transportation-related obstacle. Evidence shows that access to bikes also increases with household income and household size with bicycle access being higher in rural areas than urban areas ( Transport Scotland (2020) Transport and Travel in Scotland 2019: Results from the Scottish Household Survey, September 2020, ) .

Rural households are more likely to have access to a personal vehicle (96%) than households of urban areas (72%). Rural households may be ‘forced’ into car ownership despite financial constraints due to the connection between transport and social exclusion, especially where alternatives are sparse and cars are the only viable means of accessing services and opportunities ( Mattioli, G (2017) ‘’Forced Car Ownership’ in the UK and Germany: Socio-Spatial Patterns and Potential Economic Stress Impacts’. Volume 5, Issue 4, Pages 147-160 ) .

Security and Safety

People living in deprived areas tend to live closer to high volumes of fast-moving traffic and high levels of on-street parking and, as such, they have higher levels of exposure to road traffic risk. There is therefore a strong relationship between deprivation and pedestrian casualties. In particular, children and young people from deprived areas are more likely to be involved in traffic injuries, for whom the risk was highest on main roads and on residential roads near shops and leisure services ( Christie, N. (2017) ‘Why we need to view road safety through a public health lens’. 38(2): 139-141 ) .

In addition, there is a significant causal relationship between increased motorised transport and increased road casualties and deaths, with people from deprived neighbourhoods more likely to be injured or killed as road users ( UK Government Office for Science (2019) Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System ) .

Health and Wellbeing

People living in deprived areas in Scotland are more likely to die early from disease and have more years of ill health ( Public Health Scotland (2021) Impact of deprivation on health ) . Those living in deprived areas are also more vulnerable to the effects of environmental change due to the prevalence of pre-existing health problems and inequities amongst these communities.

Transport is a significant contributor to nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM ₁₀ and PM _2.5 ) emissions, and the transport sector is the most significant source of air pollution in the UK ( Transport Scotland (2021) Scottish Transport Statistics No. 39 2020 Edition ) . Poor air quality can have detrimental impacts on human health and quality of life, resulting in health conditions such as asthma, respiratory problems and cardiovascular disease ( Royal College of Physicians (2016) Every breath we take: the lifelong impact of air pollution ) .

Deprived areas are more likely to suffer from poor air quality ( Defra (2006) Air Quality and Social Deprivation in the UK: an environmental inequalities analysis ) . There is also potential for health inequalities widening in these areas due to emissions being concentrated in the most heavily-trafficked roads, which are used more by disadvantaged people as places where they live, work and shop ( Lucas, K (2019) A new evolution for transport-related social exclusion research? Journal of Transport Geography Volume 18 ) .

Climate change can compound poverty and deprivation and in addition, poverty increases vulnerability to climate impacts. There is also evidence that some adaptation and mitigation policy can deepen inequity. Lower-income groups living in poorer-quality housing in coastal locations are disproportionately affected by coastal flooding, while disadvantaged groups living in deprived urban areas with the least green space are more vulnerable to pluvial flooding (flooding caused by rainfall) and heatwaves ( Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2014) Climate change and social justice: an evidence review ) .