Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts of Changes in Maintenance Spend on the Scottish Trunk Road Network
Appendix C Pavement Network Model outputs
This Appendix contains the outputs from the Transport Scotland Pavement Network Model prepared by WDM Ltd:
- Scenario 1 (Base case): Constant annual level of spend (2010/11 funding level continues) for 20 years
- Scenario 2: Reduction in the annual spend in Scenario 1 by 20% (starting 2010/11) for the first 10 years. Return the annual spend to current 2010/11 levels using annual uniform increases, between 2020 and 2025. From 2026, increase annual funding by 2.5% per year
- Scenario 3: Reduction in the annual spend in Scenario 1 by 40% (starting 2010/11) for the first 10 years. Return the maintenance budget to current 2010/11 levels using annual uniform increases, between 2020 and 2025. From 2026, increase annual funding by 2.5% per year
Scenario 1: Maintain with current expenditure £46.4m
|
Maintenance Activity |
Area of Work (m2) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
555874 |
519650 |
535330 |
547636 |
627584 |
596462 |
634640 |
646685 |
641298 |
656200 |
|
Strengthening |
958647 |
1123071 |
1051473 |
1012786 |
637850 |
815521 |
637551 |
581845 |
605011 |
509911 |
|
Surface dressing |
467405 |
468328 |
474663 |
474817 |
474756 |
475954 |
475857 |
476585 |
476736 |
477112 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
Area of Work (m2) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
644009 |
646271 |
649337 |
640786 |
656765 |
650620 |
656487 |
638622 |
617143 |
612949 |
|
Strengthening |
627372 |
567471 |
549909 |
604233 |
508356 |
536991 |
505534 |
595801 |
713385 |
731714 |
|
Surface dressing |
438661 |
500137 |
501636 |
502136 |
502123 |
502436 |
502727 |
502926 |
502738 |
502761 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
(£m) |
|||||||||
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
20 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
25 |
22 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
|
Strengthening |
23 |
25 |
24 |
23 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
|
Surface dressing |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Total |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
(£m) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
25 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
|
Strengthening |
18 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
|
Surface dressing |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Total |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
|
Road Type |
Deflectograph & SCANNER PI |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Motorway |
21% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
22% |
21% |
18% |
16% |
|
Dual APTR |
18% |
21% |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
23% |
|
Single APTR |
9% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
13% |
14% |
15% |
16% |
16% |
18% |
|
Overall |
11% |
14% |
14% |
15% |
16% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
19% |
|
Road Type |
Deflectograph & SCANNER PI |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|
|
Motorway |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
7% |
6% |
|
Dual APTR |
22% |
20% |
19% |
18% |
16% |
15% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
|
Single APTR |
18% |
18% |
18% |
19% |
19% |
19% |
19% |
20% |
20% |
20% |
21% |
|
Overall |
18% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
|
Road Type |
SCRIM PI |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Motorway |
5% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
|
Dual APTR |
13% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
|
Single APTR |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
30% |
30% |
30% |
30% |
29% |
29% |
|
Overall |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
25% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
|
Road Type |
SCRIM PI |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|
|
Motorway |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
|
Dual APTR |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
|
Single APTR |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
28% |
28% |
28% |
28% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
|
Overall |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
Scenario 2: 20% reduction in current expenditure to £37.12m
|
Maintenance Activity |
Area of Work (m2) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
436885 |
438968 |
442139 |
447997 |
499794 |
485553 |
507764 |
516657 |
511529 |
522821 |
|
Strengthening |
710532 |
704613 |
687260 |
674355 |
430105 |
508138 |
404421 |
366023 |
390112 |
327470 |
|
Surface dressing |
494168 |
495134 |
501648 |
501387 |
500998 |
501829 |
501626 |
501775 |
501848 |
502138 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
Area of Work (m2) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
546973 |
583967 |
618043 |
642410 |
686649 |
700490 |
724786 |
733472 |
741486 |
762487 |
|
Strengthening |
459392 |
403805 |
390741 |
433534 |
368454 |
393798 |
376942 |
438032 |
504992 |
511507 |
|
Surface dressing |
369239 |
404103 |
405546 |
406288 |
406445 |
407073 |
407533 |
407927 |
408060 |
408390 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
(£m) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
16 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
|
Strengthening |
17 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
|
Surface dressing |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Total |
37 |
37 |
37 |
37 |
37 |
37 |
37 |
37 |
37 |
37 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
(£m) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
22 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
|
Strengthening |
14 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
|
Surface dressing |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Total |
39 |
41 |
43 |
45 |
46 |
48 |
49 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
|
Road Type |
Deflectograph & SCANNER PI |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Motorway |
21% |
26% |
26% |
27% |
28% |
28% |
27% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
|
Dual APTR |
18% |
21% |
21% |
23% |
26% |
26% |
27% |
28% |
27% |
29% |
|
Single APTR |
9% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
14% |
16% |
16% |
18% |
18% |
21% |
|
Overall |
11% |
14% |
14% |
15% |
17% |
18% |
19% |
20% |
20% |
23% |
|
Road Type |
Deflectograph & SCANNER PI |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|
|
Motorway |
21% |
20% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
6% |
|
Dual APTR |
28% |
28% |
27% |
27% |
27% |
27% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
|
Single APTR |
22% |
22% |
23% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
26% |
|
Overall |
23% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
|
Road Type |
SCRIM PI |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Motorway |
5% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
|
Dual APTR |
13% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
|
Single APTR |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
|
Overall |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
|
Road Type |
SCRIM PI |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|
|
Motorway |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
|
Dual APTR |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
|
Single APTR |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
28% |
28% |
28% |
28% |
29% |
|
Overall |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
Scenario 3: 40% reduction in current expenditure to £27.84m
|
Maintenance Activity |
Area of Work (m2) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
273896 |
274806 |
277014 |
282331 |
334874 |
320566 |
343175 |
352315 |
346797 |
358455 |
|
Strengthening |
681597 |
681012 |
668298 |
658677 |
411039 |
489834 |
384453 |
344956 |
371159 |
307286 |
|
Surface dressing |
507730 |
508762 |
515065 |
514426 |
513635 |
514194 |
513587 |
513889 |
513668 |
513625 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
Area of Work (m2) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
419860 |
493935 |
562282 |
618259 |
698304 |
712208 |
738233 |
746641 |
754809 |
776666 |
|
Strengthening |
448145 |
389555 |
376519 |
425401 |
355428 |
380299 |
358981 |
415156 |
477915 |
480151 |
|
Surface dressing |
375014 |
401214 |
401532 |
402501 |
403142 |
403969 |
404794 |
405521 |
406036 |
406562 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
(£m) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
|
Strengthening |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
|
Surface dressing |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Total |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
|
Maintenance Activity |
(£m) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|
|
Reconstruction |
16 |
20 |
23 |
25 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
|
Strengthening |
12 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
|
Surface dressing |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Total |
32 |
35 |
39 |
43 |
46 |
48 |
49 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
|
Road Type |
Deflectograph & SCANNER PI |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Motorway |
21% |
27% |
27% |
29% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
30% |
29% |
|
Dual APTR |
18% |
22% |
22% |
24% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
32% |
|
Single APTR |
9% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
15% |
16% |
17% |
19% |
19% |
23% |
|
Overall |
11% |
14% |
14% |
16% |
18% |
20% |
20% |
22% |
22% |
25% |
|
Road Type |
Deflectograph & SCANNER PI |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|
|
Motorway |
28% |
27% |
26% |
24% |
22% |
19% |
17% |
14% |
11% |
9% |
6% |
|
Dual APTR |
31% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
30% |
30% |
29% |
|
Single APTR |
23% |
24% |
25% |
26% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
|
Overall |
25% |
26% |
26% |
27% |
27% |
28% |
28% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
|
Road Type |
SCRIM PI |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
|
|
Motorway |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
|
Dual APTR |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
|
Single APTR |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
|
Overall |
24% |
24% |
24% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
|
Road Type |
SCRIM PI |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
|
|
Motorway |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
|
Dual APTR |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
|
Single APTR |
29% |
29% |
30% |
30% |
30% |
30% |
30% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
29% |
|
Overall |
24% |
24% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
24% |