Cowal Community Needs Assessment

Overview

This chapter sets out the Cowal Community Needs Assessment. It is split into four sections, as follows:

• Public transport integration – how do ferry services connect with onward bus and rail services and are there any problems or issues related to this?
• Carryings and capacity utilisation – how are the services used and are there any capacity problems which need to be addressed?
• Reliability and resilience – are there any issues with reliability (cancellations and punctuality)?
• Application of steps 1-4 of the Transport Scotland RSM for the Dunoon – Gourock route, which defines community dependencies, establishes the current and model service and identifies any mismatch between the two.

The outcomes of this chapter provide the basis for an appraisal of options (if required) which could address any differential between the current and model service.

Whilst this is the first of the CNAs to inform the ICP, it should be noted that, in many respects, it is also likely to be one of the most challenging. As detailed in Chapter 2, the Inverclyde – Cowal ferry market is unusual in Scotland in that there are two operators, one a commercially operated vehicle and passenger service and the other a publicly supported and passenger-only service, and thus users have a choice of routes and modes of transport (acknowledging that there is also a road link to the Central Belt, albeit offering much longer journey times).

Taken together, these two operators provide the totality of the ferry market, although only Western Ferries serves the vehicle ferry market. Whilst the focus of the CNA is to inform the future needs of the passenger only service between Gourock and Dunoon, it has to do so within the context of the wider ferry and transport markets, considering the needs of the community and how those are fulfilled by the specific routes and modes.

Public Transport Integration

The updated Community Needs Assessment guidance now includes consideration of integration of ferry services with connecting public transport services, recognising that a ferry service may only be one part of a multi-leg journey, particularly on these two routes. This section therefore considers public transport integration, particularly with regards to connecting rail services at Gourock.

The position with regards to bus services is correct (based on published timetables) as of 1^st December 2022 but it is not implausible that this could change as COVID-19 related support funding is progressively withdrawn.

Rail – Gourock

There is a relatively high frequency (three trains per hour but at irregular intervals) service between Gourock and Glasgow Central, with a mix of all-stop and fast (and some semi-fast) services. However, unlike the ferry, the rail service is not operated on a ‘clockface’ timetable (i.e., a cyclical schedule operated at regular intervals) and thus interchange times between ferry and rail differ by service. Appendix B provides a full breakdown of rail connections for ferry arrivals and departures at Gourock (Monday – Friday).

It should be noted that the preceding analysis is based on the December 2022 ScotRail timetable. Whilst this represents an increase on the timetable operated during the COVID-19 pandemic, service levels still remain slightly lower than pre-pandemic. However, ScotRail noted during the consultation that the current timetable is a new starting point and, as the operator learns more about travel needs post pandemic, they will amend and add services to ensure rail continues to provide a viable and effective mode of public transport.

Key points of note with regards to rail ferry interchange are as follows:

Ferry arrivals at Gourock

• Almost all ferry arrivals at Gourock from Dunoon have a rail connection within 25 minutes, although typically less. The two exceptions to this are the 20:45 (39 minutes) and 22:35 (49 minutes). For services that have a connecting train, the average interchange time is 18 minutes and the median interchange time is 21 minutes.
• The 23:35 arrival and the Friday and Saturday only arrivals at 00:35 and 01:50 do not connect with a rail service, the last train departing at 23:24.
• Rail services from Gourock are a mix of fast and all-stop services. Fast services call at Fort Matilda, Greenock West, Greenock Central, Port Glasgow, Bishopton and Paisley Gilmour Street only. The journey time to Glasgow Central on the fast services is circa 38 minutes compared to 51 minutes on the all-stop services. The ferry timetable is designed to connect with the fast services (six times per day) where possible, with a standard nine-minute interval between ferry arrival and train departure. This provides an end-to-end journey time of 72 minutes (this consists of 25 minutes on the ferry, nine minutes of interchange time and then 38 minutes on the train).
• Sunday interchange is a standard eight minutes with the ferry arriving at XX:15 and the train departing at XX:23. The reduced train service frequency on a Sunday does not therefore materially impact on interchange opportunities in the ‘to Glasgow’ direction.

Ferry departures from Gourock

• The majority of ferry departures from Gourock also benefit from a connecting rail service, the only exception being the 06:20, which departs before the first train of the day arrives.
• As with the reverse direction, the ferry generally departs within 25 minutes of the train arriving, although there are a small number of exceptions. The wait times are on average slightly longer, although this may be beneficial given the potential for delays to arriving rail services.
• There is no demonstrable difference in wait times between fast and all-stop rail services.
• Again, Sunday interchange operates on a standard interval of 15 minutes between the train arriving (XX:05) and the ferry departing (XX:20).

Bus – Dunoon and Hunters Quay

Dunoon ferry terminal is served by a dedicated bus pick-up and set-down area and five connecting services (West Coast Motors services 478, 480, 484, 486 and 489) to wider Cowal and Argyll & Bute more generally. Of these five services, only the following buses serve the ferry terminal with any regularity:

• Service 480, an approximately hourly circular service between Hunters Quay and Dunoon, although this only operates circa 09:00-16:00.
• Service 489, which operates between Toward and Ardentinny, again on an approximately hourly basis, but over a longer operating day.

There are therefore limited connectional opportunities between the ferry and bus at Dunoon (and, for some Cowal communities, no direct connectional opportunities). The Western Ferries’ terminal at Hunters Quay is served by largely the same subset of buses.

Bus – Gourock and McInroy’s Point

The CFL ferry terminal at Gourock and the Western Ferries’ terminal at McInroy’s Point are served by the same main buses.

It should be noted that a direct bus service from Dunoon to Glasgow via Western Ferries (service 907) previously operated. However, this service was withdrawn in March 2019 and has not been reinstated.

Service 901 – Clyde Flyer

Of particular relevance from a connectivity perspective is the 901 (Clyde Flyer), which operates seven days a week and provides connections from both ferry terminals to Glasgow and Greenock to the east and Largs to the south. Following a call at Gourock Station and at stops in Greenock and Port Glasgow, the service is express to Braehead Shopping Centre and then into Buchanan Bus Station. It therefore provides a public transport connection for Western Ferries’ foot passengers. Whilst the train is likely to be the preference of CFL foot passengers, concessionary pass holders, including over-60s and under-22s, may be inclined to use the bus (although the SPT Concessionary Card for over-60s also offers discounted rail travel).

The service operates on a broadly half-hourly frequency across the day Monday to Saturday, although is not entirely clockface. When combined with the 15-20-minute Western Ferries frequency and half hourly CFL frequency, the 901 provides a high-quality connection with both ferry services and provides the added benefit of serving the major retail facilities at Braehead (as well as Greenock and Gallagher Shopping Park in Port Glasgow), which the train does not.

The service also operates over a relatively long operating day, with the first departure Monday - Friday from McInroy’s Point at 05:50 (Gourock Station 05:55) and the last arrival at 19:18 (although note that there are three later services to Gourock Station, arriving at 19:40, 20:10 and 21:10). The Saturday timetable is broadly similar. The above said, the operating day is shorter than that offered by the train, particularly for Western Ferries’ passengers, with the last connecting bus leaving Glasgow at 17:50.

The Sunday timetable is much less regular, with only eight services in each direction across the day, operating at an approximately two-hourly frequency.

The journey time on the 901 is also much slower than on the train, to the extent that it may be worth Western Ferries’ passengers disembarking the bus at Gourock Station and catching the train (the extent to which this happens in practice depends on how passengers perceive the journey time saving relative to the interchange penalty and cost of switching mode, noting that Cowal is not included within the SPT Zonecard). Off-peak journey time to Glasgow by bus is 76 minutes, which contrasts with 38-51 minutes by train.

Other services

There are a range of other bus services which connect with CFL and / or Western Ferries services in Inverclyde:

• Service 540 connects Gourock Station with Inverclyde Hospital and various locations in Greenock but does not call at McInroy’s Point. The service operates at 45-minute intervals across the day from approximately 06:45-18:30. This service does not run on a Sunday.
• Service 545 operates from Port Glasgow to Inverclyde Hospital at a 20-minute frequency. However, there are only a handful of evening services Monday – Saturday that extend to Gourock Station and McInroy’s Point (four services westbound and three eastbound). There is however an hourly service on a Sunday, with departures from McInroy’s Point from 09:25 to 22:25.
• Service 803 provides a local shuttle service between McInroy’s Point and Larkfield Industrial Estate.

Connectivity analysis

There is benefit in considering the implications of different scenarios on public transport journey times between Dunoon (Castle Gardens) and Glasgow (George Square), as a proxy for the impact on public transport integration of a change in ferry service provision. This was done using TRACC public transport connectivity software.

TRACC calculates the shortest journey time by public transport, including walk legs, between an origin and destination within a specified time window (Note Q4 2022 public transport timetables were used to reflect the post COVID 19 ‘new normal’ position). For this analysis, we established travel times by public transport to / from Glasgow for two scenarios:

• Scenario 1: Western Ferries service only, CFL service withdrawn (the ‘without’ scenario involved removing the Gourock – Dunoon town centre service from TRACC but not the Western Ferries service)
• Scenario 2: Current CFL and Western Ferries services

Runs were undertaken for two time periods, within which it has to be possible to undertake the entirety of the journey by public transport:

• AM: 07:00-10:00 (Dunoon to Glasgow)
• PM: 16:00-19:00 (Glasgow to Dunoon)

A 10-minute wait penalty is normally incorporated into the calculation in line with DfT TAG guidance, which effectively eliminates spurious short connecting public transport trips. In this context, however, this penalty was reduced to five minutes to reflect the connection-based nature of the two trips (i.e., people would most likely get a bus to access a ferry service) and avoid artificially extending journey times.

The journey times for each scenario by time period are summarised in the table below:

Table 3.1: TRACC analysis outcomes (minutes)

Time Period	Scenario 1	Scenario 2
AM	142	96
PM	164	89

There is a significant difference between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 journey times. For those without access to a car, or who choose to travel without one, the overall journey time from Dunoon Town Centre is significantly shorter using the CFL service, circa 46 minutes and 75 minutes quicker in the respective AM and PM periods. This divergence is relevant for the two time slices identified but could differ in other parts of the day, although the end-to-end journey time (i.e., Dunoon to Glasgow) will always be quicker on the CFL route for Dunoon-based foot passengers.

The reason for this divergence is the differences in both ‘in-vehicle’ (bus, ferry and train) and ‘walking and waiting’ times within the two journeys, as is illustrated in the figure below:

The key points of note from the above figure are as follows:

• Scenario 1 has a longer ‘walking and waiting’ time than Scenario 2, with time spent between journeys making up 30% of the overall journey time (compared with 22% in Scenario 2). The reasons for this are two-fold:
  • The CFL service within Scenario 2 is much more central to Dunoon, resulting in initial and final connection times being relatively short (as they can be undertaken on foot).
  • Bus connections from Dunoon to Hunters Quay are limited, with the 480 and 489 services (West Coast Motors) operating on a low frequency. This results in those without access to a car having disproportionately long connection times to and from Hunters Quay Ferry Terminal.
• As previously noted, there is little difference in the time spent on the ferry, with the Western Ferries crossing being five minutes shorter. However, overall in-vehicle time is longer in Scenario 1 due to the requirement to make connecting bus journeys at either end of the crossing. The TRACC run assumes that Western Ferries’ passengers travel on the 901 Clyde Flyer all the way into Glasgow, although in practice some people may perhaps disembark at Gourock to get the train (as previously described).

Carryings and Capacity Utilisation

Carryings

The table below shows the passenger carryings for the CFL Dunoon - Gourock and Western Ferries McInroy’s Point – Hunters Quay routes between 2012-2022.

Table 3.2: Cowal ferry routes - passenger carryings 2012-2022 (‘000) (Source: Scottish Transport Statistics Tables 9.15 and 9.16)

Year	Gourock - Dunoon	McInroy's Point - Hunters Quay	Total
2012	341	1,389	1,730
2013	299	1,343	1,642
2014	310	1,347	1,657
2015	305	1,331	1,636
2016	301	1,341	1,642
2017	287	1,354	1,641
2018	287	1,373	1,660
2019	299	1,320	1,619
2020	104	850	954
2021	132	1,063	1,195
2022	196	1,226	1,422

Western Ferries carries vehicles and their occupants as well as foot passengers and is therefore, by a considerable margin. the volume operator between Cowal and Inverclyde. Whilst the majority of Western Ferries’ passengers will be travelling in a car (either as a driver or passenger), these figures nonetheless highlight the dominance of this route.

The figure below shows the trend in passenger usage for both routes individually and combined, indexed to 1992, so as to show the longer-term trend in the Cowal ferry travel market. The orange line denotes when the CFL service became passenger only:

The main points of note in relation to the CFL service from the above figure are as follows:

• There has been a long-term decline in CFL passenger numbers over the period shown, set against overall growth in the Cowal passenger market pre-pandemic. In the last full pre-pandemic year (2019) CFL carried just 45% of their 1992 passengers (circa 299k compared to 670k).
• There was a substantial reduction in carryings on the CFL route between 2007 and 2013, with part of this reduction coming prior to the conversion of the route to passenger only in 2011. This reflected the limited hourly service and longer crossing. There was a further significant reduction between 2010 and 2012, reflecting the conversion of the route to passenger only in mid-2011, at which point ‘car passengers’ were lost to the route. This was compounded by significant reliability and passenger comfort issues, which it is thought led to a reduction in passengers using the CFL service. Carryings have been more consistent since 2013 but in 2022 were only 57% of their 2012 level (circa 341k foot passengers). It should be noted that, following the introduction of the passenger-only vessels, the service went from hourly to half-hourly without any obvious uplift in demand.
• As was common across all public transport services, the CFL route witnessed a stark reduction in carryings at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Whilst carryings for 2022 (196k) show a significant improvement on 2020 (104k) and 2021 (132k), they remain some way off 2019 levels (299k), which was the last full pre-pandemic year.
• The above said, it is evident that there is a consistent baseload of passenger traffic which chooses to use the CFL service, indicating that, for these people, this service is their preferred means of travel. Whilst the effects of the pandemic may have reduced this core traffic, the route still carried almost 200,000 passengers in 2022.

Carryings by timetable period and day of week

CFL has provided sailing-by-sailing data for the Dunoon – Gourock route for summer 2022. The carryings by sailing data provide insights into the route usage profile, which contextualises the commentary on the use of the service in the next section.

All sailings (both directions) from 2022 have been analysed based on the number of passengers carried per sailing. The figure below shows the number of times the ferry sailed with 0, 1, 2 passengers etc.

These data show that the very large majority of sailings carry relatively few passengers. From these data, it can be further implied that:

• 5% of sailings carried no passengers
• 22% of sailings carried fewer than 3 passengers
• 41% of sailings carried fewer than 7 passengers
• 71% of sailings carried fewer than 16 passengers
• 1% of sailings carried more than 50 passengers

Dunoon - Gourock

The figure below shows the median passengers Monday – Friday and actual Saturday and Sunday passengers on each sailing between Dunoon and Gourock for the summer 2022 timetable period. For context, MV Ali Cat can carry a maximum of 250 passengers and MV Argyll Flyer 224. It should though be noted that vessel capacity on this route is determined more by the seakeeping requirements of the crossing than passenger demand and variable manning is used to flex the passenger certificate:

The main points of note from the above figure are as follows:

• As would be expected, the majority of eastbound weekday passengers are carried in the morning, travelling either for work, education or employer’s or personal business. Of the sailings that would facilitate an 09:00 arrival in Glasgow, the06:45 sailing is the busiest sailing Monday – Friday. Overall, there are typically between 30-35 passengers per weekday that travel on services that would allow for an 09:00 arrival into Glasgow.
• The 09:50 sailing is the busiest sailing of the day.
  • It is interesting to note that, in 2019, the 07:50 was by some distance the busiest Dunoon - Gourock sailing of the day. The reduced use of this service highlights the reduced prevalence of commuting post-pandemic seen across many public transport services.
  • For context, the ORR Station Usage Estimates dataset - https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/estimates-of-station-usage - estimated that there were 247,672 users of Gourock station in the period April 2021-March 2022 (this figure will be affected by a period of full national COVID-19 lockdown until 26th April 2021, followed by the continuation of some restrictions over the remainder of 2021 and into 2022. 2022-23 passenger numbers will therefore likely be higher than this). This was down from 504,310 for the corresponding period in 2019-20 (This was close to the last full pre-COVID-19 year, although March 2020 was impacted by: (i) the voluntary choice of some workers to stay at home from early in that month; (ii) the 'work from home where possible' instruction on 16th March; and (iii) the implementation of the first full COVID-19 national lockdown from 23rd March 2020). This represents a 51% reduction, although it is likely that the reduction for the period April 2022-March 2023 will show a lesser but nonetheless significant decline, which may well be close to the settled long-term position.
• Weekend demand is much more concentrated in the middle of the day, supporting leisure travel to Inverclyde and Glasgow.
• It is notable from the chart that evening sailings are very lightly used on weekdays. Weekend evening sailings are used more intensively.

Gourock - Dunoon

The equivalent figure for Gourock – Dunoon is shown below:

The main points of note from the above figure are as follows:

• The Monday – Friday westbound flow is broadly the reverse of the Dunoon – Gourock direction, with the greatest demand being in mid-afternoon and early evening, as commuters and residents travelling for leisure / personal business return to Cowal. The peak weekday sailing in volume terms is the 17:50.
• The weekend pattern is broadly similar across the two directions, although weighted slightly more towards the later sailings from Gourock, with Cowal residents returning from e.g., leisure trips to Glasgow and Inverclyde.
• The evening sailings are busier in the ‘to Cowal’ direction, particularly on a Saturday (and a Friday, although this is not shown independently in the figure).

Capacity utilisation

Whilst the preceding analysis presented the median number of passengers per sailing, it is important to understand peak utilisation in each direction. The peak utilisation analysis is summarised through a set of ‘box and whisker’ diagrams. It should again be noted here that vessel capacity is a product of the required vessel specification to operate the crossing rather than demand per se.

Box and whisker diagrams

The box and whisker diagrams that follow show the distribution of sailings’ individual passenger load factors (passengers / capacity) by season. Taking each component of the diagram in turn:

• Load factor is based on the carrying capacity of the MV Argyll Flyer as this is the smaller of the two vessels.
• Each point represents the load factor of an individual sailing.
• Each sailing is then allocated to one of four quarters, with an equal number of sailings in each quarter.
• Those points below the box represent the least busy quarter of sailings, whilst those above the box represent the busiest quarter of sailings.
• The ‘box’ therefore covers the ‘middle’ two quarters, with the horizontal line within the box representing the median load factor - the ‘X’ in the box is the mean load factor.
• The short horizontal lines at the top and bottom of the chart (i.e., the ‘whiskers’), represent either the maximum or minimum load factor, excluding any outliers.
  • Note that points above or below these lines as classed as ‘outliers’ in this statistical approach. An outlier is a value that lies outside the overall distribution pattern and thus they are shown as points above and below the ‘whiskers’.
• So, the higher on the chart and the shorter the ‘box’, the more sailings there are where the ferry is close to capacity.

For the purpose of this analysis, the focus is on the peak sailing in each direction in the 2022 summer timetable period.

Dunoon – Gourock, peak sailing load factors

The peak sailing from Dunoon to Gourock in terms of load factor is the 09:50, for which the B&W chart is shown below:

The main point of note from the above figure is that, even on the peak sailing ex Dunoon, utilisation rarely exceeded 30% of carrying capacity during this period. Median load factors around 10%-15% on weekdays.

Gourock – Dunoon, peak sailing utilisation

The equivalent figure for the 17:50 ex Gourock (the busiest sailing to Dunoon) is shown below:

The picture for the peak Gourock – Dunoon service is broadly similar. The median load factor varies by day but is generally around 10%-15% mark.

Reliability

CFL produce punctuality and reliability data on a rolling monthly basis. On routes with a crossing time of up to 30 minutes, sailings are either defined as:

• On-time: Sailings which arrive within 5 minutes of the published arrival time.
• Level 1 lateness: Sailings which arrive between 5 and 10 minutes after the published arrival time.
• Level 2 lateness: Sailings which arrive in excess of 10 minutes after the published arrival time.
• Cancelled sailings are scheduled sailings which have not been carried out.
• For cancellations and both categories of lateness, there are various ‘relief events’ defined within the CHFS contract. These include, for example, sailings cancelled by bad weather, in accordance with safety procedures, delays due to the unavailability or operational restrictions of harbour facilities or having to wait for public transport connections.

Additional detail on CFL’s approach to performance monitoring can be found here: Information on Performance Monitoring | CalMac Ferries

Cancellations

The figure below summarises cancellations on the Dunoon – Gourock route (both directions) for the period December 2021 – November 2022. Note that the high cancellation rates in October and November are a result of the route being reduced to a single vessel timetable due to harbour works at Gourock):

The main points of note from the above figure are as follows:

• The Dunoon – Gourock route is subject to significant levels of disruption, a long-running area of dissatisfaction amongst users. On average, 15% of all sailings on the route were cancelled in the year December 2021 - November 2022.
• Cancellations are most frequent in the winter months (December 2021 – March 2022 and October – November 2022), accounting for 22% of all services, although this was inflated by the October / November harbour works at Gourock. However, the summer (April 2022 – September 2022) cancellation rate of 9% is not insignificant on a commuter route of this length, and one which operates in comparatively sheltered waters (although note that this figure is inflated to some degree by a breakdown of MV Ali Cat in April 2022).
• Previous work undertaken for the Dunoon and Kilcreggan Ferry Infrastructure OBC found that 74% of all cancellations on the route between 2011 and 2020 were a result of ‘adverse weather’. Despite being a relatively short crossing, the suitability of the vessels for the route combined with sub-optimal berthing arrangements (particularly at Dunoon) continue to cause poor performance overall.

For context, it should be noted that Western Ferries’ services are rarely cancelled, only tending to go off in the most inclement weather. Moreover, with four vessels in their fleet, Western Ferries’ service has significant in-built resilience to cover vessel maintenance and mechanical issues.

Punctuality

Whilst reliability is a major problem on the route, punctuality is much less of an issue. When the service operates, it generally does so on time – in the most recent year, fewer than 0.5% of operated sailings were late.

Resilience

With two vessels and an alternative ferry and road routes, resilience is not a major issue on this route. When the CFL service is cancelled, the company has a contract with local bus companies to connect with Western Ferries’ services.

RSM Steps 1-4 – Cowal

This section applies the Transport Scotland RSM methodology to the CFL Dunoon – Gourock route.

To inform the ongoing Gourock, Dunoon and Kilcreggan Ferry Infrastructure Programme, CMAL commissioned research reported in April 2020 focused on use of the CFL and Western Ferries services. As part of this commission, Transport Scotland provided the raw data cross-tabulations. These have been used to inform this analysis with a specific focus on the CFL route. The following points should be noted with regards to the analysis of the data:

• The research was undertaken prior to the first national COVID-19 lockdown and therefore will not account for the nationwide trend of reduced commuting emerging from improved remote working practices and indeed other changes in travel behaviour.
• The survey received 625 responses on a self-selecting basis, and we do not know how representative this sample is of the Cowal and Inverclyde (and beyond) communities. Indeed, of the 542 respondents to the question on main residence, only 65% (n=352) had their main residence in Dunoon / Cowal.
• Connected to the above point, of the 625 respondents to the survey, 205 noted that they use the CFL service most often, whilst 420 noted that they use the Western Ferries service most often (a ratio of 2.05:1 in favour of Western Ferries). However, the carryings data suggests that Western Ferries carries around 4.5 passenger-trips for every passenger-trip carried by CFL, so the sample is biased towards CFL users.
• Ideally, any ferry usage data (e.g., purpose or mode used to get to the ferry) should be weighted by trip frequency to be representative of all trips rather than the sample. For example, a survey may state that 10% of respondents say that ‘commuting to work’ is their most frequent trip purpose whilst 8% state ‘healthcare’ – however since commuting trips tend to be made more often than healthcare trips, weighting the survey responses by the stated trip frequency may reveal that commuting to work accounts for say 20% of all trips whilst healthcare only accounts for 3% of all trips made. However, the cross-tabulations made available to us meant that the CFL-main user data (for e.g., trip purpose) could not be weighted by journey frequency, but the overall travel from the Cowal sample could be and has been weighted by this variable. Note also that sample sizes are not presented for weighted data.

Step 1: Identify the dependencies of the community

The first step in the RSM process is to identify the dependencies of the Cowal community with respect to:

• Commuting and frequent business use
• Personal
• Freight
• Tourism

For each dependency area, a community is allocated to one of four ‘pots’, pots A-D, which are defined as follows:

• 'Pot A': the community has a strong set of indicators which all point to a specific need for that particular dependency.
• 'Pot D': the community has a weak set of indicators which all point to no specific need to that particular dependency.
• 'Pot B': the community has a mixed set of indicators but has more in common with communities in 'Pot A' than 'Pot D'.
• 'Pot C': the community has a mixed set of indicators but has more in common with communities in 'Pot D' than 'Pot A'.

Only those communities categorised into 'pots' A or B for a particular dependency are regarded as having a priority need in that specific aspect. It follows that any number of communities might be in any of the 'pots'.

The allocation to pots is defined with respect to a set of 11 ‘indicators’, albeit it is important to note that judgement on the extent of the dependency is ultimately subjective.

Each dependency area and the respective indicators are now considered in turn.

Commuting and frequent business use

Indicator 1: Island to mainland crossing time (in minutes)

The island (peninsula) to mainland crossing times for both the CFL and Western Ferries services are detailed below:

• CFL: Gourock – Dunoon: 25 minutes
• Western Ferries: Hunters Quay – McInroy’s Point: 20 minutes

The two Cowal – Inverclyde ferry services offer a sub-30-minute journey time, with Western Ferries having a shorter journey time as their crossing is shorter.

It should be noted that, for the majority of Cowal users of both the CFL and Western Ferries services, their ultimate destination is beyond Gourock - the figure below shows the destination of trips which originate in Cowal for:

• Those who note that they use the CFL service most frequently (n=123)
• The Cowal to Inverclyde ferry sample overall (n=384)

The key points of note from the above figure are as follows:

• Glasgow City Centre is by some distance the dominant destination for those who travel on the CFL ferry most often, equating to 56% (n=69) of the total CFL sample. Given that ‘commuting to / from work’ is the single biggest reason for using the CFL service (even when not weighted for journey frequency – see below), it is likely that Glasgow City Centre would be an even more prominent destination if the data were weighted in this way.
• Gourock as a destination accounts for a relatively low share of passenger journeys, both for the CFL sample and for the weighted CFL plus Western Ferries sample.
• The distribution of destinations in the overall sample is also weighted towards Glasgow City Centre, accounting for 40% of the weighted sample total. However, it is not as dominant as on the CFL route, with other destinations including ‘elsewhere in Inverclyde’ (17%) and ‘elsewhere in Greater Glasgow’ (13%) accounting for a significant proportion of the sample. This more even distribution of destinations likely points to the wider range of destinations that can be accessed easily when taking a car onboard the Western Ferries service.

Indicator 2: Percentage of households who use the ferry service for commuting purposes and are also high frequency users

The short distance and duration of the Cowal - Inverclyde crossings combined with the frequent onward public transport connections has encouraged and facilitated commuting for many years. The CMAL survey asked respondents what their most common reason for using the Cowal ferry services is. Key findings included:

• Even when not weighted for journey frequency, commuting is the most common reason for using the CFL service, with 32% (n=63) citing this as their main journey purpose. However, this reflects the pre-pandemic position and recent carryings data suggest that this figure / proportion may have reduced.
• Commuting accounts for just under a half (46%) of all sampled journeys across the combined Western Ferries and CFL routes.

A commuting dependency was recognised in the original RSM assessment undertaken for the Ferries Review and this remains unchanged.

Travel-to-Work

‘Ferry’ was not included as a standalone travel-to-work option in the 2011 Census and will typically be recorded under the ‘Other’ category. This makes it challenging to split out multi-leg journeys which used a ferry for part of a trip and therefore requires a degree of extrapolation to understand potential flows for this journey purpose.

There are three data areas (at intermediate geography level, i.e., groupings of datazones where origin-destination data are available) in the south-east of the Cowal Peninsula which would realistically generate a significant volume of cross-Clyde travel-to-work movements:

• Dunoon
• Hunters Quay
• Cowal South

For each area, it is assumed that those who have selected ‘Train / Metro’ or ‘Other’ for their journey mode across the Clyde are users of the CFL ferry service, although some will travel by Western Ferries, particularly from Hunters Quay. Car drivers and car passengers are assumed to use Western Ferries. There are also only a handful of bus journeys recorded, which again would be assumed to use Western Ferries given through routing and ticketing for bus passengers which existed at that time (the through bus service commenced in 2008 but was discontinued in March 2019). The table below summarises combined ‘Train / Metro’ and ‘Other’ travel-to-work movements from each area of the Cowal Peninsula:

Table 3.3: Selected Cowal Peninsula areas - travel-to-work by ‘Train / Metro’ or ‘Other’ (Source: Census 2011)

Area	No. of travel-to-work trips from this area by 'Train / Metro' or 'Other'
Dunoon	53
Hunters Quay	7
Cowal South	0
Total	60

The table shows that there is a modest market for the CFL ferry service within Dunoon town centre, but this diminishes to very small numbers in areas to the north and south. There are very low levels of in-commuting (not shown), with the travel-to-work flow mainly outbound from the peninsula. This is common across the Firth of Clyde islands and peninsular communities more generally.

Indicator 3: Percentage of households who use the ferry service for business purposes and are also high frequency users

This indicator was developed based on a question in the 2008 Ferries Review household survey, which asked about travel for business purposes. However, it is not an entirely useful indicator as those who are travelling on business may not be resident in an area. Moreover, in a commuter area like Cowal, commuting will likely outweigh business travel and is thus of greater importance in terms of ferry service design.

For the record, the 2020 CMAL survey highlighted that 5% (n=9) of the CFL unweighted sample identified ‘travel linked to business’ as their main journey purpose. When weighted for journey frequency in the combined CFL plus Western sample, business-related travel is identified as the main journey purpose by 7% of the overall sample.

Dependency rating

Overall, it is evident that a combination of historic connections to Inverclyde and Glasgow combined with two frequent ferry services operating over a long day has supported a significant commuter market. Combined passenger carryings on the Gourock - Dunoon and Hunters Quay – McInroy’s Point routes in 2022 were in excess of 1.4 million. The Cowal – Inverclyde route group is by some distance the busiest in Scotland, and indeed Western Ferries alone carried more passengers than any other route in Scotland in 2022 (Source: Scottish Transport Statistics).

The carryings analysis combined with survey and travel-to-work data which identify high commuting volumes would conventionally lead to Cowal being classified as ‘Pot A’ for this RSM dependency. However, the car-based commuting market is catered for entirely by Western Ferries and the CFL service has a very specific role focused primarily on Dunoon town centre residents and / or those who are non-car available. As this CNA is specifically focused on the CFL Gourock – Dunoon route, this route can only be classified as ‘Pot B’.

It should again be noted here that there could be other ways to serve the current CFL users, and this should be considered as part of the Gourock, Dunoon and Kilcreggan Investment Programme SBC.

Personal

The ‘Personal’ dependency covers the need to travel off of / away from the Cowal Peninsula to access essential services such as healthcare. In the context of Scottish island and peninsular communities, Cowal has a comparatively large population and a range of local services including Cowal Community Hospital, a secondary school (Dunoon Grammar) and both a Morrisons and a Co-Op. Viewed from this perspective, the town and peninsula more generally have a wide range of services which reduce the need to travel to Inverclyde and beyond to meet day-to-day needs.

However, it is important to note that Cowal has historic ties to the west of Scotland and there remain strong connections between the peninsula and Glasgow in particular. For example, specialist hospital care is provided in Glasgow; students will travel daily for tertiary education to Glasgow, Greenock and Paisley; whilst both Glasgow City Centre and related retail sites like Braehead provide a much larger retail and leisure offering than can be found locally. Whilst there may not therefore be a ‘personal dependency’ in all circumstances, there is strong demand amongst local residents for journey purposes other than commuting. 

Indicator 4: Population

11,376 people are estimated to reside in Cowal according to the National Records of Scotland Small Area Population Estimates 2021. This in itself does not indicate a dependency or otherwise, but it is worth noting that Cowal is one of the larger communities served by the subsidised ferry network in Scotland.

Indicator 5: Percentage of households who use the ferry services for health-related purposes

As noted above, there are a range of health facilities on the Cowal Peninsula, including a GP, dental practice and community hospital, although more complex health needs are addressed off-peninsula.

Of those who travel on the CFL service most often, the CMAL survey found that travel to medical appointments was identified by 6% (n=12) as their main journey purpose, although it should be borne in mind that this figure is not weighted by trip frequency. For the weighted CFL plus Western Ferries sample, travel to medical appointments accounted for 7% of all journeys. It should be noted that the sample includes both Cowal and Inverclyde residents – as there is likely to be no / few Inverclyde to Cowal health trips, the proportion of those using the ferry for travel to health from Cowal is likely to be understated.

Indicator 6: Frequency profile for all travel using the ferry service

Trip Purpose

The combined Cowal – Inverclyde ferry services are used for a wide range of personal travel purposes – this is illustrated by the figure below which shows the most common reason cited for using the Cowal ferry services. It should be reiterated here that only the overall sample is weighted for journey frequency.

Outwith commuting, the CFL service is predominantly used for leisure purposes, with ‘visiting family / friends’ (24%, n=47) and ‘entertainment / leisure activity’ (15%, n=29) the second and third most common journey purposes respectively. The distribution of travel by purpose does not change significantly when weighted by journey frequency for the Cowal sample overall.

Overall, it is evident that the CFL service is used for personal business purposes, with visiting friends and family and leisure activity in Glasgow likely to be the main reasons for use. That said, Western Ferries is again the dominant operator in volume terms.

Trip Frequency

An early screening question in the survey enquired as to which operator respondents used most often, of which 205 (out of a sample of 625) used CFL most often. Of this subset of the sample, a further 202 answered questions in relation to how often they travel as a foot passenger (via CFL) and by car (via Western Ferries). The results are summarised below - again, the question relates to the autumn and winter months, but the summer proportions are broadly similar. It should be noted that trip frequency responses are grouped, e.g., those who responded 5-7 days per week and 3-4 days per week are grouped together. Responses are also presented in absolute numbers.

The main points of note from the above figure are as follows:

• The key point in the above figure is that, for those who travel most frequently (i.e., 3-7 days per week), they almost always do so as a CFL foot passenger.
• The picture is more mixed for less frequent travellers, with a combination of foot passenger journeys and car trips by Western Ferries. A small subset of respondents do not travel at all in the autumn and winter months.

Dependency rating

Cowal’s historic connections to Glasgow and the west of Scotland more generally means that there is a significant volume of travel by ferry for personal business reasons. Of the subset of the survey sample that use the CFL service most often (n=178 – note that question 2 of the survey identified 205 respondents as using the CFL service most often, but only 178 respondents from that subset have answered this question on why they choose to use CFL most often), the following reasons for choosing CFL were selected by more than 10% of respondents (note this was a multiple response question so the percentages sum to greater than 100%):

• ‘Rail link / access to public transport connections’ = 65% (n=116)
• ‘Town centre to town centre better’ = 16% (n=29)
• ‘Don’t drive / Western port too inconvenient / CalMac port more convenient’ = 12% (n=22)
• ‘Terminal is closer / more convenient’ = 10% (n=17)

The above responses are evidently a variation on a theme, whereby the reasons for using the CFL service are clustered around the desire or necessity to travel as a foot passenger and proximity to both the ferry terminal in Dunoon and the connecting rail service at Gourock.

The extent to which the CFL Dunoon – Gourock service is integral to personal travel is open to question, as Western Ferries is by some distance the dominant operator. Further research would be needed to understand the behavioural response of those who use the CFL service should that not be available or be scaled back. For this reason, this dependency is allocated to ‘Pot C’.

Freight

It is important to note at the outset that all freight moving to and / or from the Cowal Peninsula is either conveyed by road or by Western Ferries. From the perspective of this CNA, freight is therefore not a relevant dependency as it is not carried on the CFL service. For completeness, information in relation to the three freight indicators is nonetheless presented below.

Indicator 7: Population

In the original RSM, population was considered as an indicator of freight dependency, the logic being that, the larger the community, the greater the freight need. This is perhaps a useful indicator in terms of volume (i.e., the more people, the greater the derived freight demand), but perhaps less so in terms of need as it is often the smallest islands with the fewest on-island services that have the greatest and most diverse freight needs.

As noted in relation to ‘Indicator 4’, 11,376 people are estimated to reside within the selected Cowal Peninsula datazones according to the National Records of Scotland Small Area Population Estimates 2021. If viewing Cowal as an ‘island’ for the purposes of this analysis, it would be one of the larger communities on the west coast.

Indicator 8: Percentage employed in freight-intensive industry

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has defined Travel-to-Work Areas (TTWA) to provide various statistics at sub-local authority level. ‘Dunoon and Rothesay’ is one such TTWA and, from a freight perspective, it is helpful to consider them together due to what is understood to be the importance of the Colintraive – Rhubodach route in facilitating circular freight movements (e.g., Inverclyde – Cowal – Bute – Inverclyde and vice versa).

The table below summarises the proportion of workplace jobs in Cowal that are within a ‘freight intensive industry’ and compares this to the HITRANS and Scotland averages for context. HITRANS is the Regional Transport Partnership for the Highlands and Islands and consists of the Highland, Moray, Orkney, Eilean Siar and Argyll & Bute Council areas (except Helensburgh and Lomond) - Cowal falls within the HITRANS RTP area. ‘Freight intensive’ has been defined as BRES sectors C: ‘Manufacturing’, F: ’Construction’, G ‘Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles’, and: H: ‘Transportation and storage’.

Table 3.4: Proportion of workplace employed in freight intensive industries – ‘Dunoon and Rothesay’, HITRANS and Scotland (Source: BRES, 2021)

Industry	Dunoon and Rothesay	HITRANS	Scotland
Manufacturing	9%	8%	7%
Construction	4%	6%	5%
Wholesale and retail trade etc	13%	15%	14%
Transportation and storage	4%	5%	5%

Indicator 9: Commercial Vehicle Lane metres per capita

All waterborne freight between Cowal and Inverclyde is shipped by Western Ferries, whose route is used for movements between Inverclyde and Cowal specifically and as a through route for wider freight movements to Argyll & Bute. For context, the trend in Western Ferries’ combined total commercial vehicles (CVs) and buses carried between 1992-2021 is shown in the figure below:

As can be seen from the above figure, Western Ferries’ (predominantly) CV carryings have grown significantly from the turn of the century, in part due to the reduction and ultimate discontinuation of the Gourock – Dunoon vehicle service. Whilst carryings have fluctuated in recent years, the operator has carried circa 30,000-40,000 CVs per annum since 2004. By way of context, the Hunters Quay to McInroy’s Point route alone carried almost the same number of CVs as all of the CFL ‘Clyde routes’ combined in 2019 (29,800 for Western Ferries against 32,500 for the combined CFL ‘Clyde routes’) (Source: Scottish Transport Statistics). For context, the ‘Clyde routes’ are: Ardrossan – Brodick; Ardrossan – Campbeltown; Colintraive – Rhubodach; Largs – Cumbrae; Claonaig / Tarbert (Loch Fyne – Lochranza; Tarbert (Loch Fyne) – Portavadie and Wemyss Bay - Rothesay. Only the Aberdeen – Kirkwall / Lerwick route recorded higher CV volumes than Western Ferries in 2019, and this route has major freight flows in agriculture, aquaculture and project-related cargo for major construction works in both Orkney and Shetland.

Dependency rating

All freight travelling between Cowal and Inverclyde is moved either by road or by Western Ferries, although there is understood to be some freight which also moves via Bute in one direction. Whilst Cowal evidently has a freight dependency, the evidence highlights that this is being met by Western Ferries and the road network, so there is no identified need for further government intervention. It is therefore inappropriate to define a dependency rating for it.

Tourism

Dunoon was a traditional day-trip and short-break tourist destination in the years before low-cost air travel. Whilst this role is now much diminished, tourism remains an important industry for the town, whilst Cowal more generally is a popular tourist destination and also hosts the annual Cowal Games. This section considers the RSM tourism indicators.

Indicator 10: Percentage employed in tourism

The figure below displays the proportion of workplace jobs BRES sector I: ‘Accommodation and Food Service Activities’, as proxy for the tourism industry.

As can be seen from the above figure, there are major employment concentrations in tourism-related businesses in Dunoon town centre and also in Sandbank, where Hunters Quay Holiday Village and Holy Loch Marina are located. Neighbouring Blairmore has 10-15% of workplace jobs in ‘Accommodation and Food Service Activities’.

The table below summarises the share of workplace employment in ‘Accommodation and Food Service Activities’ in the ‘Dunoon and Rothesay’ TTWA relative to the HITRANS and Scottish averages:

Table 3.5: Proportion of workplace jobs in ‘Accommodation and Food Service Activities’ – Dunoon and Rothesay, HITRANS and Scotland (Source: BRES, 2021)

Workplace share	Proportion employed in 'Accommodation and Food Services'
Dunoon and Rothesay	12%
HITRANS	10%
Scotland	7%

This analysis highlights that ‘Dunoon and Rothesay’ has a higher proportion of workplace jobs in tourism or tourism-related / impacted businesses than the HITRANS average. This is significant given that the HITRANS region itself has a strong tourism industry and a proportion of employment in that industry which exceeds the national average. Whilst the figures for the area may be disproportionately influenced by the tourist industry in Bute, it does demonstrate that there is a significant tourism market in Cowal from a workplace employment perspective.

Indicator 11: Share of summer patronage versus share of population

In the 12 months from October 2021, the CFL Dunoon – Gourock route carried 194,440 passengers. Of these almost two thirds (64%) were carried in the summer (April – September inclusive), with the remaining 36% carried in the winter. This highlights that there is a summer tourism uplift layered on top of the core demand. The seasonal variation on the Gourock – Dunoon route, despite being significant, is though less than on many other routes in the Clyde and Hebrides due to the higher baseload of regular users.

It should once again be noted that the majority of tourist traffic is carried by Western Ferries. However, the Dunoon – Gourock route plays an important role for rail-based visitors (particularly daytrippers).

Dependency rating

The review of the evidence highlights that Cowal does have a tourism dependency as defined by the RSM. There is a significant proportion of Cowal residents employed in tourism-related businesses, whilst two thirds of route passengers are carried in the summer months.

As with commuters, the CFL Dunoon – Gourock route currently fulfils a specific role for train-based foot passengers. However, once again, Western Ferries accommodates all car-based tourism and thus a ‘Pot B’ rather ‘Pot A’ dependency is allocated (albeit there is no material difference between these ‘pots’ in terms of implied service). This dependency only applies in the summer and the route can be considered to have a ‘Pot D’ dependency in winter.

Dependency Summary

The table below summarises the dependencies for the Cowal Peninsula, with specific reference to the CFL Dunoon – Gourock route.

Table 3.6: Cowal – CFL Dunoon – Gourock route dependencies

Dependency	Rating
Commuting	B
Personal	C
Freight	Not applicable
Tourism	B (summer) / D (winter)

Step 2 – Development of the model service

Overview

The second step in Transport Scotland’s RSM process is to define the service profile that fits the community’s dependencies based on the dependencies identified as having a ‘priority need’, and the crossing time (in minutes).

Tables 3.7-3.10 (summer) and Tables 3.11-3.14 (winter) below outline the required service profiles for each dependency identified as having a ‘priority’ need, based on the crossing time.

Table 3.7: RSM Service Profiles for “Commuting” dependency – summer – showing crossing time, in minutes.

Commuting	(0-30)	(31-60)	(61-90)	(91-180)	(181-360)	(360+)
Sailing days	7 days	7 days	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable
Sailings per day	Freq. Peak	Freq. Peak	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable
Operating day	Specific	Specific	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable

Table 3.8: RSM Service Profiles for “Personal” dependency – summer – showing crossing time, in minutes.

Personal	(0-30)	(31-60)	(61-90)	(91-180)	(181-360)	(360+)
Sailing days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days
Sailings per day	Standard	Standard	Std-Ltd	Limited	Limited	Limited*
Operating day	Extended +	Extended +	Extended	Partial	Partial	Partial

Table 3.9: RSM Service Profiles for “Freight” dependency – summer – showing crossing time, in minutes.

Freight	(0-30)	(31-60)	(61-90)	(91-180)	(181-360)	(360+)
Sailing days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days
Sailings per day	Frequent	Frequent	Limited	Limited	Limited	Limited*
Operating day	Standard	Standard	Specific	Specific	Specific	Specific

Table 3.10: RSM Service Profiles for “Tourism” dependency – summer – showing crossing time, in minutes.

Tourism	(0-30)	(31-60)	(61-90)	(91-180)	(181-360)	(360+)
Sailing Days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days
Sailings per day	Standard	Standard	Std-Ltd	Limited	Limited	Limited*
Operating day	Extended +	Extended +	Extended	Partial	Partial	Partial

Table 3.11: RSM Service Profiles for “Commuting” dependency – winter – showing crossing time, in minutes.

Commuting	(0-30)	(31-60)	(61-90)	(91-180)	(181-360)	(360+)
Sailing days	7 days	7 days	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable
Sailings per day	Freq. Peak	Freq. Peak	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable
Operating day	Specific	Specific	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable

Table 3.12: RSM Service Profiles for “Personal” dependency – winter – showing crossing time, in minutes.

Personal	(0-30)	(31-60)	(61-90)	(91-180)	(181-360)	(360+)
Sailing days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days
Sailings per day	Std-Ltd	Std-Ltd	Std-Ltd	Limited	Limited	Limited*
Operating day	Standard	Standard	Standard	Partial	Partial	Partial

Table 3.13: RSM Service Profiles for “Freight” dependency – winter – showing crossing time, in minutes.

Freight	(0-30)	(31-60)	(61-90)	(91-180)	(181-360)	(360+)
Sailing days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days	7 days
Sailings per day	Frequent	Frequent	Limited	Limited	Limited	Limited*
Operating day	Standard	Standard	Specific	Specific	Specific	Specific

Table 3.14: RSM Service Profiles for “Tourism” dependency – winter – showing crossing time, in minutes.

Tourism	(0-30)	(31-60)	(61-90)	(91-180)	(181-360)	(360+)
Sailing Days	7 days	7 days	5 days	5 days	5 days	5 days
Sailings per day	Std-Ltd	Std-Ltd	Std-Ltd	Limited	Limited	Limited*
Operating day	Standard	Standard	Standard	Partial	Partial	Partial

The definitions for the profiles of sailings per day and operating day are provided in Table 3.15 below.

Table 3.15: RSM Service Profile Definitions by sailings per day

Frequent	Constant service throughout the day (20+)
Freq. Peak	Frequent core hours and then regular (>8)
Standard	Regular service throughout the day (6-8)
Std-Ltd	Limited service throughout the day (3-5)
Limited	1-2 sailings per day (*denotes 1)

Table 3.16: RSM Service Profile Definitions by operating day

Extended +	More than 14 hours
Extended	Up to 14 hours, 6 am to 8 pm
Standard	11 hours, 7 am to 6 pm
Specific	At peak times, not prescribed
Partial	No normal operating day

The overall service profile is determined by examining the individual service profiles for the identified dependencies (i.e., those scoring ‘A’ or ‘B’, there is no distinction in practice) and using the service profile from whichever one has the greatest requirements. Note that this is a binary exercise where frequency and the length of the operating day are defined by the pre-determined criteria set within the Transport Scotland RSM process.

Model Service

The resulting model service for Cowal, in relation to the CFL Dunoon – Gourock service is shown in the table below:

Table 3.17: Summary of CFL Dunoon – Gourock model service

Dependency	Rating	Sailing days	Sailings per day	Operating day (Summer)	Operating day (winter)
Commuting	B	7 days	Freq. Peak	Specific	Specific
Personal	C	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable
Freight	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not applicable
Tourism	B (Summer) / D Winter	7 days	Standard	Extended+	Not applicable
Summer	Not applicable	7 days	Freq. Peak	Extended+	Not applicable
Winter	Not applicable	7 days	Freq. Peak	Not applicable	Specific

Step 3 - Define the current ferry service profile

Overview

Step 3 in the RSM process requires the current service to be defined in terms of sailing days, sailings per day and length of operating day.

The RSM guidance suggests that the definition of the current ferry service should take account of both summer and winter timetables. The review of the Dunoon – Gourock timetables presented in Chapter 2 highlighted that the timetable is broadly consistent year-round, albeit the service does reduce to a one vessel operation for a period over the winter during the drydock period.

Current Service

Using the RSM definitions, the current CFL Dunoon – Gourock service is described below:

• Seven days per week, year-round.
• Frequent constant service (20plus) throughout the day.
• Two sailings per hour Monday – Thursday, 06:20-12:20 and 15:20-21:40
• One sailing per hour Monday – Thursday 12:20-15:20 and 21:40-23:35
• Friday and Saturday follows the same pattern as above but has additional departures ex. Gourock at 23:40 and 01:00
• One sailing per hour on Sunday 08:20-22:20
• Operating hours are 17 hours 15 minutes Monday-Thursday, 19 hours 30 minutes Friday and Saturday, and 14 hours 55 minutes on Sunday.

In summary:

• The CFL Dunoon – Gourock route generally operates on a two sailings per hour frequency Monday to Saturday, the exceptions being: (i) between 12:20-15:20; and (ii) after 21:40 in the evening.
• Sunday frequency is hourly across the day, with the service operated by a single vessel.
• The length of the operating day matches that offered across any route in Scotland, with a circa 17-hour day Monday to Thursday and 19h 30m operating day on a Friday and Saturday.
• The Sunday operating day is shorter, but this is common with public transport networks across the United Kingdom.

Step 4 – Comparison with current services

This step requires a comparison between the proposed and current service profiles to identify whether gaps exists in service provision. This is again a largely prescribed process within the RSM guidance.

Gap Analysis

The RSM methodology advises the use of a five-point scale to identify gaps, as follows:

• Substantial under provision – where current provision is at least two ‘service definitions’ short of model provision – e.g., current sailings per day is ‘Standard’ and model sailings per day is ‘Frequent’.
• Marginal under provision - where current provision is one ‘service definition’ short of model provision – e.g., current sailings per day is ‘Freq. Peak’ and model sailings per day is ‘Frequent’.
• Sufficient provision – where current provision equates with model provision.
• Marginal over provision - where current provision is one ‘service definition’ greater than model provision – e.g., current sailings per day is ‘Freq. Peak’ and model sailings per day is ‘Standard’.
• Substantial over provision- where current provision is at least two ‘service definitions’ greater than model provision – e.g., current sailings per day is ‘Frequent’ and model sailings per day is ‘Standard’.

The table below provides an indication of the gap analysis undertaken.

Table 3.18: CFL Dunoon – Gourock route gap analysis

Dependency	Sailing days	Sailings per day	Operating day (summer)	Operating day (winter)
Model	7 days	Freq. Peak	Extended(plus)	Specific
Current	7 days	Frequent	Extended(plus)	Extended(plus)
Gap analysis	Sufficient provision	Marginal over-provision	Sufficient provision	Substantial over-provision

The application of the RSM process identifies over provision in two areas of the current CFL Dunoon – Gourock service:

• The number of sailings per day where there is deemed to be ‘marginal over provision’.
• The length of the operating day in winter, where the is deemed to be ‘substantial over provision’.

Each of these areas of over-provision is now discussed in turn.

Ahead of this however, it is important to note that the ‘Extended+’ sailing day (greater than 14 hours) deemed necessary by the RSM in the summer months does not appear to align with the carryings and capacity utilisation data, particularly given that the sailing day is substantially in excess of 14-hours Monday - Friday. Very low usage of evening sailings to and from Dunoon and low-capacity utilisation overall makes it challenging to argue that such a service is required especially when other means of providing this connectivity in partnership with Western Ferries could be explored.

Sailings per day

The RSM suggests that sailings per day should be ‘Freq. Peak – frequent core hours and then regular (>8) sailings per day’, reflecting the commuting dependency which has been identified.

The RSM guidance does not define ‘core hours’, nor indeed the criteria by which they should be defined. On the one-hand, this could be thought of as maximising the intensity of the service where demand is greatest, primarily the commuter period of 06:30-09:30 and then again from circa 16:00-18:30. On the other hand however, the total demand across these periods in each direction could be accommodated by a single sailing. This judgement of ‘core hours’ is therefore one which is entirely subjective and which would also need to reflect the emerging post-COVID-19 changes in the market.

The material question therefore appears to be whether a two-vessel service can be justified at any point in the day or whether the route should be operated as a single vessel service only. This will be considered in chapters 5 and 6.

Length of operating day – winter

The RSM suggests that the length of the operating day in winter should be ‘Specific – at peak times, not prescribed’, reflecting the absence of a ‘Personal’ or ‘Tourism’ dependency at that time. Again, the guidance does not clearly define what this means, although it would suggest a sub-11-hour day as the next ‘profile’ up is ‘Standard’, which implies an 11-hour day, 07:00-18:00.

The logic of running a ferry service on a short route with a commuting ‘dependency’ over a sub-11-hour day simply does not hold. The material question therefore appears to be whether there is a case for limiting the Dunoon – Gourock service to a single crew operation in the winter on both vessels. A key challenge which would need to be considered is that it could be logistically difficult to scale-up for a circa 17-20 hour operating day in summer and then scale-back to a single crew operating day in winter. This would leave surplus crew and consideration would need to be given as to whether they could then be deployed to different routes or parts of the business in the winter.

Next Steps

Having defined the current and model service and gaps in provision therein, Chapter 5 sets out options for addressing the over-provision identified through the CNA. The focus for the CFL Dunoon – Gourock route will largely be on:

• The case for a continued two-vessel operation.
• Summer and winter variations in the timetable in terms of the length of the operating day.
• Any opportunities for realising economies of scale with the Kilcreggan – Gourock route.