Package 3

Package description

The options included in this package are:

Active Connections;
Bus Priority Measures;
Investment in DRT and Maas;
Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line;
Targeted Road Safety Improvements; and
A96 Electric Corridor

This package is focused primarily on delivering transport network improvements to rural sections along the A96 corridor between noted settlements included in Package 1 and Package 2. The package would provide enhancements which aim to encourage a shift to more sustainable modes, increase active travel and public transport options and improve road safety.

This package aims to address both real and perceived safety concerns on the A96 Trunk Road is targeted at improving road safety through the provision of targeted safety improvements to address both real and perceived safety concerns on the A96 Trunk Road. It is envisaged that this would be achieved through the provision of improved overtaking opportunities, junction improvements and improvements to the alignment of the carriageway at targeted locations along the route.

This package also aims to deliver networks of high-quality active travel routes between settlements along the A96 corridor. By connecting communities, this package would also address the need for junction improvements to enhance the provision for active modes along the route and the creation of safe crossings in rural areas, providing safe, attractive, and convenient choices for many functional and recreational journeys, enabling people to benefit from improved access to key trip attractors in neighbouring settlements, using sustainable travel modes.

A number of public transport interventions targeted at delivering faster and more reliable journey times as well as improving the overall passenger experience form part of this package. Journey time and reliability improvements would be achieved through the inclusion of bus priority measures at appropriate locations, with rail improvements delivered through linespeed and capacity interventions on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line. Linespeed improvements would target a reduction in end-to-end journey times to two hours (currently approximately two hours and 25 minutes). This would be facilitated through the provision of passing loops, new rolling stock and improving passenger service frequencies and freight opportunities. This package does not however consider the provision of new park and ride facilities for onward travel by bus as they are only likely to be a viable option for capturing trips travelling to the larger cities of Aberdeen and Inverness where congestion is highest.

Improvements to the public transport network coverage are also proposed through the use of flexible services, such as Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) or Community Transport (CT), supported by Mobility as a Service (MaaS) or smart technology where appropriate, at a corridor level.

Development of the A96 Electric Corridor is also included within this package to encourage a shift away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. This intervention would seek to improve the provision of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities along the full A96 corridor and its interfacing local roads.

This figure gives an outline of the Package 3 study area, with a 7.5km buffer (high resolution versions found in Appendix E). — Figure 7.1.1: Package 3 study area (high resolution version in 0)

Criterion 1

Criterion and success factors

Extent to which the package supports adaptation for and/or resilience to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.

Success factors:

1a. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increases in sea levels and storm surge.
1b. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted changes in temperatures.
1c. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increase in likelihood and severity of fluvial and pluvial flooding.
1d. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increase in likelihood and severity of storms and high winds.

Geographic and environmental context

Table 7.1 , Table 7.2 , Table 7.3 and Table 7.4 outline the geographic and environmental context of Package 3 against criterion 1 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of each of the rural sections.

Table 7.1: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area against Criterion 1, Success Factor 1a. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increases in sea levels and storm surge
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environment Context
Hardmuir - Forres	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period, focused around the north of the study area (north of Culbin Forest and around Muckle Burn). Given the relative distance from the coast, it is not envisaged that this will severely impact the rural section.
Forres - Elgin	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period, focused around the north and north-east of the rural section (near Findhorn Bay and Findrassie Wood). Given the relative distance from the coast, it is not envisaged that this will severely impact the rural section.
Elgin - Lhanbryde	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period, focused around the north of the study area (River Lossie and Oakenhead Wood). Given the relative distance from the coast, it is not envisaged that this will severely impact the rural section.
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period, focused around the north of the study area (north-west of Lochhill). Given the relative distance from the coast, it is not envisaged that this will severely impact the rural section.
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period, focused around the north of the study area (the River Spey/Spey Bay). Given the relative distance from the coast, it is not envisaged that this will severely impact the rural section.
Fochabers – Keith	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period, focused around the north of the study area (west of Portgordon). Given the relative distance from the coast, it is not envisaged that this will severely impact the rural section.
Keith - Huntly	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify no risk of coastal flooding due to the rural section being located inland, away from the coast.
Huntly - Inverurie	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify no risk of coastal flooding due to the rural section being located inland, away from the coast.
Inverurie - Kintore	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify no risk of coastal flooding due to the rural section being located inland, away from the coast.
Kintore - Blackburn	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify no risk of coastal flooding due to the rural section being located inland, away from the coast.
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	The SEPA coastal hazard maps identify no risk of coastal flooding due to the rural section being located inland, away from the coast.

Table 7.2: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area against Criterion 2, Success Factor 1b. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted changes in temperatures
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environment Context
Hardmuir - Forres	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.87⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.00⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.74⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.38C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.83⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.08⁰C (2070-2099).
Forres - Elgin	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.87⁰C (2020-2049) and +2.95⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.74⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.29⁰C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.89⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.08⁰C (2070-2099).
Elgin - Lhanbryde	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.88⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.00⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.75⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.33⁰C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.86⁰C (2020-2049) and +2.81⁰C (2070-2099).
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.88⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.00⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.75⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.33⁰C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.86⁰C (2020-2049) and +2.81⁰C (2070-2099).
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.88⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.00⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.75⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.33⁰C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.86⁰C (2020-2049) and +2.81⁰C (2070-2099).
Fochabers – Keith	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.89C (2020-2049) and +3.04C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.77C (2020-2049) and +3.40C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.87C (2020-2049) and +2.83C (2070-2099).
Keith - Huntly	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.89C (2020-2049) and +3.04C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.77C (2020-2049) and +3.40C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.87C (2020-2049) and +2.83C (2070-2099).
Huntly - Inverurie	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.89C (2020-2049) and +3.04C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.77C (2020-2049) and +3.40C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.87C (2020-2049) and +2.83C (2070-2099).
Inverurie - Kintore	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.90⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.05⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.79⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.46⁰C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.88⁰C (2020-2049) and +2.82⁰C (2070-2099).
Kintore - Blackburn	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.90⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.05⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.79⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.46⁰C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.88⁰C (2020-2049) and +2.82⁰C (2070-2099).
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	Mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.90⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.05⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.79⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.46⁰C (2070-2099), and minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.88⁰C (2020-2049) and +2.82⁰C (2070-2099).

Table 7.3: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area against Criterion 1, Success Factor 1c. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increase in likelihood and severity of fluvial and pluvial flooding
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environment Context
Hardmuir - Forres	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows Muckle Burn and the Burn of Freddon. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +4.82% (2020-2049) and +7.81% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +10.88% (2020-2049) and +28.00% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Forres - Elgin	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows the River Lossie and minor waterways including Kinloss Burn and Den Burn. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +4.93% (2020-2049) and +7.55% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +11.06% (2020-2049) and +28.81% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Elgin - Lhanbryde	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows the River Lossie and minor waterways including Lhanbryde Burn. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +4.31% (2020-2049) and +5.46% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +9.59% (2020-2049) and +24.21% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk is predominantly concentrated around Loch na Bo and other minor waterways, including Lhanbryde Burn and Black Burn. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +4.31% (2020-2049) and +5.46% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +9.59% (2020-2049) and +24.21% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000 year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows the River Spey. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +4.31% (2020-2049) and +5.46% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +9.59% (2020-2049) and +24.21% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Fochabers – Keith	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows minor waterways including the Burn of Fochabers. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +4.31% (2020-2049) and +5.46% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +9.59% (2020-2049) and +24.21% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Keith - Huntly	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows minor waterways including Road Burn and Burn of Cairnie. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +3.91% (2020-2049) and +4.30% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +10.98% (2020-2049) and +24.30% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Huntly - Inverurie	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows the River Urie, The Shevock and minor waterways. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200- year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +3.91% (2020-2049) and +4.30% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +10.98% (2020-2049) and +24.30% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Inverurie - Kintore	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows the River Don. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +5.26% (2020-2049) and +6.21% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +16.88% (2020-2049) and +33.13% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Kintore - Blackburn	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows the River Don and other minor waterways. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +5.26% (2020-2049) and +6.21% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +16.88% (2020-2049) and +33.13% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	Fluvial Flooding: SEPA River Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This risk predominantly follows the River Don and minor waterways. No flood protections schemes have been implemented in this rural section. Pluvial Flooding: SEPA Surface Water Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of surface water flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; and a 0.1% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. This rise is spread across the study area. Change in annual precipitation is predicted to range between +5.26% (2020-2049) and +6.21% (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the rural section (50% probability). Change in winter precipitation is predicted to peak between +16.88% (2020-2049) and +33.13% (2070-2099) within the geographical boundary (50% probability). These predicted increases in precipitation present an added risk of increased likelihood and severity of pluvial flooding, especially during winter months.

Table 7.4: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area against Criterion 1, Success Factor 1d. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increase in likelihood and severity of storms and high winds
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environment Context
Hardmuir - Forres	No weather-related incidents (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Forres - Elgin	No weather-related incidents (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Elgin - Lhanbryde	No weather-related incidents (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	No weather-related incidents (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	No weather-related incidents (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Fochabers – Keith	No weather-related incidents (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Keith - Huntly	No weather-related incidents (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Huntly - Inverurie	There was one weather-related incident (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) that occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Inverurie - Kintore	There was one weather-related incident (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) that occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Kintore - Blackburn	There was one weather-related incident (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) that occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	There was one weather-related incident (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) that occurred between 2016-2021 along the A96 within this rural section.

Package 3 criterion 1 assessment

Package 3 is at an early stage of development with limited design details on which to base an assessment. The assessment is based on potential impacts and interactions the options could have with aspects considered within this criterion.

The geographic and environmental context for Package 3 forecasts that annual temperatures will increase across the corridor, with drier, warmer summers and wetter, milder winters. This means that the A96 corridor will need to prepare for a wider range of annual temperatures and be resilient to higher peak summer temperatures (which could potentially warp surfaces, impact electronic and electrical equipment and cause heatstroke for operational users or construction workers).

Current standards for designing and constructing transport infrastructure are maintained and updated regularly to account for climate factors. This process should ensure that each option is designed and built to adapt to the predicted future impacts of climate change throughout the A96 corridor, including across the rural sections included in this package. Any resulting infrastructure that is built to adapt to future impacts of climate change has the potential to increase the overall resilience of the transport network in and around the settlements.

Package 3 includes the option to make linespeed, passenger and freight capacity improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line. This option will make the A96 corridor more resilient as it aims to provide a more reliable public transport service throughout the corridor, cutting journey times and providing a more frequent passenger service. However, there may be locations along the A96 corridor where the rail line if more vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Package 3 includes alternative refuelling infrastructure as part of the A96 Electric Corridor which is not noted to be particularly prone to the identified effects of climate change. However, throughout the A96 corridor, and across the rural sections included in this package, there may be locations that may be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Package 3 will be developed in accordance with relevant standards such as the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB). The DMRB includes LA 114 Climate standard, which assesses the resilience and adaptation of proposed road infrastructure assets at detailed design stage. DMRB states ‘ the scoping assessment shall identify whether anticipated changing climate conditions and weather events are likely to have significant adverse effects on the project (or elements of the project) during construction and operation '.

Examples of potential climate impacts cited in DMRB LA 114 during construction and operations include increased frequency of extreme weather; increased temperatures; increased precipitation; increased sea level rise and wave height; and gales. Therefore, it is assumed that the options within Package 3 will be designed in accordance with DMRB LA 114 to ensure resilience against extreme weather and to minimise the potential effects of climate change, and to reduce the vulnerability of the infrastructure.

Package 3 criterion 1 recommendations

All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments should be kept up to date with the latest climate change forecasts and associated best practice and applied to the development of all options.

If Package 3 is developed, a climate change vulnerability scoping/assessment exercise should be undertaken, in line with current standards such as DMRB LA 114.

If Package 3 is taken forward it is recommended that any potential impacts on the A96 corridor, including the rural sections within this package, climate resilience are understood at the earliest design stage and accounted for within the design. Technologies to counteract the impacts of climate change and provide resilience for each option within Package 3 should be considered. The design for each option should embed measures for adaptation against climate-related hazards where practicable, to reduce the significance levels of any adverse impacts.

The vulnerability of all the options included in Package 3 to climate change should be appropriately scoped to understand the potential impacts on the associated assets during construction and operation – for example on electronic equipment; construction workers; end users; site facilities; structures; earthworks; verges; drainage; and construction plant.

Consideration should be made during the site selection process for options that require construction of new facilities or infrastructure to prioritise locations along the A96 corridor, including the rural sections within this package, which are more resilient to the potential effects of climate change. For example, selecting a location for the infrastructure on naturally higher ground levels and building away from coastal areas and/or floodplains that are anticipated to be subject to flooding. Additionally, the drainage capabilities of the infrastructure should be designed to deal with more intense rainfall events and flooding.

Active travel provisions should include elements that will support adaptation for and/or resilience to current and predicted future impacts of climate change. For example, the use of porous pavements for pedestrianised areas and cycling routes should be considered; the use of higher solar reflectance/cool pavements in pedestrianised areas and cycling lanes should be considered. Additionally, road salt and snow removal should be prioritised in pedestrianised areas and cycling routes.

It is recommended that during the design development of the options within this package, consideration is given to including structural adaptation measures, for example, selecting materials that are resistant to the expected extremes of both low and high temperatures; building protective infrastructure such as flood defences across the rural sections; and using permeable paving surfaces to reduce run-off during heavy rainfalls. Nature-based solutions should also be considered to further enhance natural resilience and adaptation measures.

Finally, the selection of materials used within the construction of the transport options should be based on their resilience to extreme weather, for example, preference should be given to corrosion-resistant materials rather than utilising metals and treating them with a non-corrosive powder coating.

1. Criterion 2

Criterion and success factor

Criterion 2 is:

Extent to which the package supports the surrounding area to adapt and/or become more resilient to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.

Success factors:

2a. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to current and future impacts of climate change within the study area outside of the package boundary.
2b. Supports the natural environment to adapt for and/or increase resilience to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.

Geographic and environmental context

- 1. Table 7.5 and Table 7.6 outline the geographic and environmental context against criterion 2 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of each of the rural sections.

Table 7.5: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area against Criterion 2, Success Factor 2a. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to current and future impacts of climate change within the study area outside of the option boundary
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environment Context
Hardmuir - Forres	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Forres - Elgin	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Elgin – Lhanbryde	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Lhanbryde – Mosstodloch	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Fochabers – Keith	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Keith - Huntly	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Huntly – Inverurie	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Inverurie - Kintore	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Kintore - Blackburn	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	Geographic and environmental context for the Rural Sections is described in Package 3 Criterion 1 (Section 7.2).

Table 7.6: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area Criterion 2, Success Factor 2b. Supports the natural environment to adapt for and/or increase resilience to current and predicted future impacts of climate change
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environment Context
Hardmuir - Forres	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Hardmuir - Forres: - Ancient Woodland: 4,022.31 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 899.44 hectares - Special Area of Conservation: Three SAC - Culbin Bar, Lower Findhorn Woods and Moray Firth - Special Protection Areas: Three SPA - Darnaway and Lethen Forest, Moray and Nairn Coast and Moray Firth - Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Four SSSI - Lower Findhorn Woods, Randolph's Leap, Boghole, Muckle Burn, and Culbin Sands, Culbin Forest and Findhorn Bay - Wetland of International Importance (Ramsar): One Ramsar Site - Moray and Nairn Coast - Geological Conservation Review Site: Four Geological Conservation Review Site - Culbin, Boghole, Muckle Burn, Randolph's Leap and Culbin Saltmarsh morphology
Forres - Elgin	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Forres – Elgin: - Ancient Woodland: 2,801.65 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 445.07 hectares - Special Area of Conservation: One SAC - Moray Firth - Special Protection Areas: Two SPA - Moray and Nairn Coast and Moray Firth - Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Six SSSI - Clashach - Covesea, Culbin Sands, Culbin Forest and Findhorn Bay, Cutties Hillock, Lethenhill, Masonshaugh, Quarry Wood - Wetland of International Importance (Ramsar): One Ramsar Sites - Moray and Nairn Coast - Geological Conservation Review Site: Five Geological Conservation Review Sites - Clashach Quarry, Clashach Covesea, Masonshaugh Quarries and Burghead, Cutties Hillock, and Masonshaugh Quarry
Elgin - Lhanbryde	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Elgin – Lhanbryde: - Ancient Woodland: 118.63 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 43.41 hectares - Special Area of Conservation: One SAC - Lower River Spey - Spey Bay - Special Protection Areas: One SPA - Moray Firth - Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Three SSSI - Spey Bay, Scaat Craig and Coleburn Pasture - Geological Conservation Review Site: Two Geological Conservation Review Sites - Spey Bay and Scaat Craig
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Lhanbryde – Mosstodloch: - Ancient Woodland: 1,417.40 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 194.17 hectares - Special Area of Conservation: Two SAC - Lower River Spey - Spey Bay, and River Spey - Special Protection Areas: Two SPA - Moray and Nairn Coast and Moray Firth - Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Four SSSI - Loch Oire, Teindland Quarry, Spey Bay and River Spey - Wetland of International Importance (Ramsar): One Ramsar Site - Moray and Nairn Coast - Geological Conservation Review Site: Two Geological Conservation Review Sites - Spey Bay and Teindland Quarry
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Mosstodloch – Fochabers: - Ancient Woodland: 14.72 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 10.33 hectares - Special Area of Conservation: Two SAC - Lower River Spey - Spey Bay, and River Spey - Special Protection Areas: Two SPA - Moray and Nairn Coast and Moray Firth - Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Three SSSI - Lower River Spey, Spey Bay and River Spey - Wetland of International Importance (Ramsar): One Ramsar Site - Moray and Nairn Coast - Geological Conservation Review Site: Two Geological Conservation Review Sites - Lower River Spey and Spey Bay
Fochabers – Keith	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Fochabers – Keith: - Ancient Woodland: 3,455.24 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 510.28 hectares - Special Area of Conservation: One SAC - River Spey - Special Protection Areas: One SPA - Moray Firth - Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Two SSSI - Tynet Burn and Spey Bay - Geological Conservation Review Site: Three Geological Conservation Review Site - Tynet Burn, Spey Bay and Elgin
Keith - Huntly	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Keith – Huntly: - Ancient Woodland: 2,431.69 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 1231.92 hectares - Special Area of Conservation: One SAC - Mortlach Moss - Special Protection Areas: One SPA - Tips of Corsemaul and Tom Mor - Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Seven SSSI - Bin Quarry, Craigs of Succoth, Den of Pitlurg, Mortlach Moss, Mill Wood, Whitehill and Tips of Corsemaul and Tom Mor - Geological Conservation Review Site: Two Geological Conservation Review Sites - Bin Quarry and Binhill Quarry
Huntly - Inverurie	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Huntly - Inverurie: - Ancient Woodland: 2,417.49 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 2,143.32 hectares - Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Five SSSI - Wartle Moss, Tilliefoure Wood, Pittodrie, Pitcaple and Legatsden Quarries and Paradise Wood - Geological Conservation Review Site: Two Geological Conservation Review Sites - Pittodrie and Pitscurry (Pitmedden) & Legatesden Quarries
Inverurie - Kintore	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Inverurie – Kintore: - Ancient Woodland: 222.29 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 177.60 hectares
Kintore - Blackburn	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Kintore – Blackburn: - Ancient Woodland: 281.39 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 112.75 hectares
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	There are a number of designated habitats within the study area of Blackburn to Craibstone Junction: - Ancient Woodland: 454.60 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 106.33 hectares - Special Protection Area: One SPA – Loch of Skene - Site of Special Scientific Interest: One SSSI – Loch of Skene - Wetland of International Importance (Ramsar): One Ramsar Site – Loch of Skene

Package 3 criterion 2 assessment

The construction of the options included in Package 3 could impact the surrounding area’s ability to adapt to climate change. This could be either positive or negative depending on how the options are designed and delivered.

The design and construction of the options included in Package 3 would be developed in accordance with relevant standards including DMRB. A risk that would need to be managed through design would be the interaction that the option would have with the drainage of the surrounding area. DMRB requires that schemes developed in accordance with the relevant standards should not increase flood risk to the surrounding area. The design should take account of existing risks such as communities that already experience flooding. Development of the option could have a net positive impact on the area’s ability to adapt to climate change if designed and delivered to go beyond mitigating risks and identify and take advantage of potential opportunities. This could include appropriate drainage features and flood defence systems – including outside of the option boundary.

The delivery of the options included in Package 3 could positively or negatively impact the ecosystem services provided by the surrounding area, depending on how the options are designed and delivered. The ecosystem services provided by the area surrounding the study area and which may be impacted by the delivery of the transport options include (but are not limited to):

Regulating services : such as soil conservation and the carbon sequestration service provided by peatland, for example, between Fochabers and Keith where there are 20 pockets of Class 1 peatland which are nationally important carbon-rich soils, deep peat and priority peatland habitat.
Supporting services : including nutrient cycling, soil formation and photosynthesis provided by the natural environment along the A96 corridor such as Deerpark Wood between Huntly and Keith; and Pulwhite Wood between Huntly and Inverurie.
Provisioning services : fresh water; and timber and other forest products processed by companies such as Chas Smith Sawmill between Huntly and Keith.
Cultural services : the recreational and aesthetic sites within the study area including (but not limited to) the Coach House Caravan and Campsite and Dunnideer Castle, both between Inverurie and Huntly; and Threaplands Garden Centre between Lhanbryde and Mosstodloch.

Collectively the options included in Package 3 have the potential to support the communities in the study area to become more resilient to current and predicted future impacts of climate change through provision of additional transport options. For example, Package 3 includes three options to improve public transport facilities (bus priority measures and linespeed, passenger and freight capacity improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line). If one of these modes of public transport experiences travel disruption due to adverse weather conditions, then the improvements made to other facilities have the potential to provide an alternative transport option.

Package 3 includes alternative refuelling infrastructure as part of the A96 Electric Corridor and investment in DRT and MaaS. The impact of these options on the surrounding area’s ability to adapt to climate change could be positive depending on how the options are designed and delivered.

The study area includes land designated as environmentally sensitive, including SSSIs, SACs, SPAs and Geological Conservation Review Sites, which presents a risk and opportunity with regard to their future management. Notably, between Keith to Huntly, which has 7 SSSIs; Forres to Elgin which has 6 SSSIs; and from Hardmuir to Forres which has 3 SACs and 3 SPAs, meaning these areas are particularly environmentally sensitive. As such, the options delivered within Package 3 may impact on the designated land and its ability to adapt to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.

Package 3 criterion 2 recommendations

Options should be designed, constructed and maintained to maximise the opportunities to improve the resilience and adaption of the surrounding area to the future impacts of climate change and local conditions. This could include appropriate drainage features and flood defence systems – including outside of the option boundary.

Consideration should be given to the interdependency of the transport options and their ability to function if one or more of the transport modes is interrupted due to adverse weather conditions.

Options should be designed, constructed and maintained to maximise the opportunities to improve the ecosystem services of the surrounding area and the natural environment’s resilience to the future impacts of climate change. This should include the potential impacts listed in paragraph 7.3.7.

Criterion 3

Criterion and success factor

Criterion 3 is:

Extent to which the package supports the decarbonisation of the transport network in Scotland, including supporting transition from higher to lower emission modes, and the modal shift to greater public transport and active travel options.

Success factors:

3a. The net change in user carbon emissions sit appropriately within the calculated emissions envelope for Scotland, taking account of changing legislation and targets (including any Climate Change Plan update for Scotland) (assumed current target of 2045).
3b. Supports the transition to low carbon modes of transport: transition from higher emissions to lower emissions modes, the modal shift to public transport and the modal shift to active travel for shorter everyday journeys.

Geographic and environmental context

Table 7.7 and Table 7.8 outline the geographic and environmental context of Package 3 against Criterion 3 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of each of the rural sections.

Table 7.7: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area against Criterion 3, Success Factor 3a. The net change in user carbon emissions sit appropriately within the calculated emissions envelope for Scotland, taking account of changing legislation and targets (including any Climate Change Plan update for Scotland) (assumed current target of 2045)
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environment Context
Hardmuir - Forres	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Forres - Elgin	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Elgin - Lhanbryde	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Fochabers – Keith	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Keith - Huntly	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Huntly - Inverurie	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Inverurie - Kintore	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Kintore - Blackburn	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 3 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 7.9 & Table 7.10).

Table 7.8: Geographic and environmental context for Package 3 study area against Criterion 3, Success Factor 3b. Supports the transition to low carbon modes of transport: transition from higher emissions to lower emissions modes, the modal shift to public transport and the modal shift to active travel for shorter everyday journeys
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environment Context
Hardmuir - Forres	The National Cycle Network (NCN) runs through the study area. The majority of the NCN route in the study area is on the road, and therefore requires interactions with traffic. The bus route networks run along the A96 and other minor roads, including Fir Park, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel options are available across the study area through both the NCN and the Core Path network (to the north of the study area). There are approximately 4 fast charging EV charging points within the study area.
Forres - Elgin	The National Cycle Network (NCN) runs to the north of the study area. The majority of the NCN route in the study area is on the road, and therefore requires interactions with traffic. The bus route networks run along the A96 and other minor roads, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel options are available across the study area, however this is confined to the NCN as the Core Path network (to the north) is limited. There are approximately 4 fast charging and 4 rapid charging EV charging points within the study area.
Elgin - Lhanbryde	The National Cycle Network (NCN) runs through the study area. The majority of the NCN route in the study area is on the road, and therefore requires interactions with traffic. The bus route networks run along the A96 and other minor roads, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel options are available across the study area, however this is confined to the NCN as the Core Path network (to the south) is limited. There are no EV charging points within the study area.
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	The National Cycle Network (NCN) runs to the north of the study area. The majority of the NCN route in the study area is on the road, and therefore requires interactions with traffic. The bus route networks run along the A96, with one bus stop located across the study area. Active travel is not frequently used across the study area. There are no EV charging points within the study area.
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	The National Cycle Network (NCN) runs to the north of the study area. The majority of the NCN route in the study area is on the road, and therefore requires interactions with traffic. The bus route networks run along the A96, with three bus stops located across the study area. Active travel options are available across the study area through both the NCN and Core Path networks. There are no EV charging points within the study area.
Fochabers – Keith	The National Cycle Network (NCN) runs to the north of the study area. The majority of the NCN route in the study area is on the road, and therefore requires interactions with traffic. The bus route networks run along the A96, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel is not frequently across the study area as the Core Path network is limited and the NCN is confined to the north of the study area. There is approximately 1 fast charging EV charging point within the study area.
Keith - Huntly	The National Cycle Network (NCN) does not cross the study area. The bus route networks run along the A96 and other minor roads, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel routes are not frequently used across the study area. There are no EV charging points within the study area.
Huntly - Inverurie	The National Cycle Network (NCN) does not cross the study area. The bus route networks run along the A96 and other minor roads, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel routes are not frequently used across the study area. There are approximately 2 rapid charging and 2 fast charging EV charging points within the study area.
Inverurie – Kintore	The National Cycle Network (NCN) does not cross the study area. The bus route networks run along the A96 and other minor roads, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel routes are frequently used through the Core Path networks. There are approximately 9 fast charging and 2 fast charging EV charging points within the study area.
Kintore - Blackburn	The National Cycle Network (NCN) does not cross the study area. The bus route networks run along the A96 and other minor roads, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel routes are frequently used through the Core Path networks. There are approximately 4 fast charging EV charging points within the study area.
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	The National Cycle Network (NCN) runs through the study area. The majority of the NCN route in the study area is on the road, and therefore requires interactions with traffic. The bus route networks run along the A96 and other minor roads, with multiple bus stops located across the study area. Active travel routes are frequently used through the NCN and Core Path networks. There are approximately 4 fast charging EV charging points within the study area.

Package 3 criterion 3 assessment

Table 7.9 and Table 7.10 below show the net change in road user emissions with and without the package, under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ transport behaviour scenarios.

Table 7.9: The net change in road user emissions with and without the package, under the ’With Policy’ scenario. The target emissions reduction, and annual carbon emissions envelope have been set as per the Climate Compatibility Assessment methodology
Year	% Emissions reduction from baseline year	Annual carbon emissions envelope (Mt CO2e)	Without package (Do Nothing) (tCO2e)	With package (Do-Something) (tCO2e)	Net change (tCO2e)	Net tCO2e as % of the annual carbon emission envelope
1990	Baseline	75.70	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2030	75%	18.92	212639.8	212428.1	-211.66	-0.001%
2031	76.50%	17.79	198463.8	198266.3	-197.55	-0.001%
2032	78.00%	16.65	184287.8	184104.4	-183.44	-0.001%
2033	79.50%	15.52	170111.8	169942.5	-169.33	-0.001%
2034	81.00%	14.38	155935.9	155780.6	-155.22	-0.001%
2035	82.50%	13.25	141759.9	141618.8	-141.11	-0.001%
2036	84.00%	12.11	127583.9	127456.9	-127.00	-0.001%
2037	85.50%	10.98	113407.9	113295.0	-112.89	-0.001%
2038	87.00%	9.85	99231.9	99133.1	-98.78	-0.001%
2039	88.50%	8.71	85055.9	84971.3	-84.67	-0.001%
2040	90%	7.57	70879.9	70809.4	-70.55	-0.001%
2041	92.00%	6.05	56703.9	56647.5	-56.44	-0.001%
2042	94.00%	4.54	42528.0	42485.6	-42.33	-0.001%
2043	96.00%	3.03	28352.0	28323.8	-28.22	-0.001%
2044	98.00%	1.51	14176.0	14161.9	-14.11	-0.001%
2045	100%	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	N/A

Table 7.10: The net change in road user emissions with and without the package, under ‘Without Policy’ scenario. The target emissions reduction, and annual carbon emissions envelope have been set as per the Climate Compatibility Assessment methodology
Year	% Emissions reduction from baseline year	Annual carbon emissions envelope (Mt CO2e)	Without package (Do Nothing) (tCO2e)	With package (Do-Something) (tCO2e)	Net change (tCO2e)	Net tCO2e as % of the annual carbon emission envelope
1990	Baseline	75.70	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2030	75%	18.92	318601.7	318390.9	-210.81	-0.001%
2031	76.50%	17.79	311750.3	311539.1	-211.16	-0.001%
2032	78.00%	16.65	304898.9	304687.4	-211.50	-0.001%
2033	79.50%	15.52	298047.4	297835.6	-211.85	-0.001%
2034	81.00%	14.38	291196.0	290983.8	-212.20	-0.001%
2035	82.50%	13.25	284344.6	284132.0	-212.55	-0.002%
2036	84.00%	12.11	277493.2	277280.3	-212.90	-0.002%
2037	85.50%	10.98	270641.7	270428.5	-213.24	-0.002%
2038	87.00%	9.85	263790.3	263576.7	-213.59	-0.002%
2039	88.50%	8.71	256938.9	256724.9	-213.94	-0.002%
2040	90%	7.57	250087.5	249873.2	-214.29	-0.003%
2041	92.00%	6.05	243236.0	243021.4	-214.63	-0.004%
2042	94.00%	4.54	236384.6	236169.6	-214.98	-0.005%
2043	96.00%	3.03	229533.2	229317.8	-215.33	-0.007%
2044	98.00%	1.51	222681.8	222466.1	-215.68	-0.014%
2045	100%	0	215830.3	215614.3	-216.03	N/A

Package 3 includes options that sit across the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy and have varying contribution to decarbonisation of the transport network. The options map to the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy in Figure 7.4.1 as follows.

This figure provides an overview of Package 3 options and their alignment with the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy. For the option of active connections, there is strong alignment with walking and wheeling, and cycling. There is no direct alignment with public transport, taxis and shared transport, and private car. For the option of bus priority measures, there is strong alignment with public transport, and taxis and shared transport. There is no direct alignment with walking and wheeling, cycling, and private car. For the option of linespeed, passenger and freight capacity improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line, there is strong alignment with public transport. There is no direct alignment with walking and wheeling, cycling, taxis and shared transport, and private car. For the option of investment in DRT and MaaS, there is strong alignment with public transport and taxis and shared transport. There is no direct alignment with walking and wheeling, cycling, and private car. For the option of the A96 electric corridor, there is strong alignment with taxis and shared transport and private car, and partial alignment with public transport. There is no direct alignment with walking and wheeling and cycling. For the option of targeted road safety improvements, there is strong alignment throughout the entire Sustainable Travel Hierarchy. — Figure 7.4.1: Overview of the Package 3 options and their alignment with the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy

Walking and wheeling & cycling

The Active Connections option included in Package 3 would help to facilitate a modal shift from car to active modes and would thus lead to a modest reduction in carbon emissions. This could encourage the reduced use of non-renewable energy fuelled modes of transport, supporting the decarbonisation of the transport sector.

Public transport

The options included in the public transport tier of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy include investment in DRT and MaaS; bus priority measures; and linespeed, passenger and freight capacity improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line.

Collectively, these options have the potential to improve the flow of traffic the A96 corridor (including the rural sections included in this package), increase the attractiveness of public transport and could encourage a modal shift away from private car use over time. This may contribute to a decrease in associated carbon emissions during the operation of the proposed measures, thus contributing to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.

The extent of change in carbon emissions from affected buses and cars will depend on the fuel being used and factors such as the location of the new bus priority sites. Delivering faster and more reliable journey times for bus passengers could increase the attractiveness of bus as a mode of transport, resulting in mode shift from car. In addition, provision of bus priority measures could reduce bus operating costs, providing the opportunity to leverage other bus service improvements from operators, such as increased mileage.

Taxis and shared transport & private car

The development of the A96 Electric Corridor option will improve the overall network coverage and capacity for electric vehicles across A96 corridor, which is expected to increase the overall attractiveness and reliability of using low/zero-emission vehicles and enable the decarbonisation of the transport sector. Through this option, it is expected that there will be a reduction in tailpipe carbon emissions, particularly over the long-term as the uptake of low and zero emission vehicles increases.

The delivery of the targeted road safety improvements option is likely to improve the reliability of the A96 road corridor, and as such may make it a more attractive route for private vehicles.

In the longer term, Package 3 could help to facilitate a modal shift to public transport and active travel through options such as active connections and bus priority measures. If this was achieved, it would support decarbonisation of the transport network in Scotland and the transition from higher to lower emission modes of transport.

Package 3 criterion 3 recommendations

All the options in Package 3 should be designed to improve alignment with the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy and careful consideration should be given to how the options can work together to optimise the lowest carbon option, for example, for different journeys and shorter routes.

As part of the Active Connections option it is recommended that active travel linkages are maximised within and between the rural sections of the A96 corridor to improve and maximise walking, wheeling, and cycling opportunities for both local residents and visitors. Improvements could include suitable surfacing for all user types (including wheelchair users); few slopes/no stairs wherever possible; improved crossing points to promote safety; and suitably secure bike storage.

The impact on carbon emissions, of the options in the public transport tier of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy, will depend on the fuel being used by buses and trains. It is therefore recommended that low-carbon modes of fuelling buses and trains are considered. It is envisaged that low carbon/zero carbon alternatives will become more cost efficient as technologies improve.

To fully support decarbonisation of the transport network, the following should be considered for all rail and transport hub improvement options: suitable provisions for bike storage at any improved/new stations; suitable station facilities to minimise private car miles; and improved local walking/cycling connections to promote the train facilities as a suitable, sustainable mode of transport.

The development of the A96 Electric Corridor option should include the distribution of electric and hydrogen-based fuel sources in addition to other alternative fuels such as HVO and Ammonia. The dispensaries should be placed strategically across the rural sections of the A96 corridor so that they are highly accessible to both road users and rural local communities. Consideration should also be given to demountable and mobile infrastructure.

The options included in Package 3 would be designed to DMRB standards and therefore the design will be obligated to consider the provision of facilities for non-motorised users of the A96 corridor. The road safety improvements should be designed to maximise associated active travel and opportunities for public transport. It is important that consideration is given as to how the active travel and public transport options can work together to optimise use of the lowest carbon options.

Criterion 4

Criterion and success factor

Criterion 4 is:

Extent to which the package supports the decarbonisation of the construction sector in Scotland and maximises reduction in whole life carbon emissions.

Success factor:

4a. Supports transition from higher emission to lower emission materials and technologies during construction, operation, and maintenance.

Geographic and environmental context

Table 7.11 outlines the geographic and environmental context against criterion 4 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of each of the rural sections.

Table 7.11: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area Criterion 4, Success Factor 4a. Supports transition from higher emission to lower emission materials and technologies during construction, operation and maintenance
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environmental Study Area
Hardmuir - Forres	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Forres - Elgin	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Elgin-Lhanbryde	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Fochabers – Keith	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Keith - Huntly	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Huntly - Inverurie	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Inverurie - Kintore	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Kintore - Blackburn	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting).

Package 3 criterion 4 assessment

Since there are limited design details, the carbon emissions impact is estimated from the capital cost forecast by applying the Scottish Government ‘Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables’ figure for construction. This provides an estimate of between 140,600tCO ₂ e and 280,600tCO ₂ e for the capital stage carbon emissions impact.

The construction stage carbon emissions will vary between the options in the package. The variability is likely to depend on the level of new infrastructure required to implement the options – with the greater the level of construction resulting in greater levels of associated carbon emissions.

Package 3 as described makes no commitments to how the carbon emissions impact from construction, maintenance and operation would be minimised and so any resulting benefits or carbon reduction measures cannot be specifically considered within this assessment.

The operational element of the carbon emissions impact is reduced in part through the use of renewable/zero carbon electricity tariffs, if that approach is continued.

If Package 3 is developed, the options would be subject to relevant standards and assessment procedures for the type of transport infrastructure. For example, for road development this would include the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB). Where the latest version of the DMRB climate change assessment standard (LA 114) is applied it requires the assessment of carbon emissions at detailed design stage.

All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments should be kept up to date with the latest best practice on carbon emission reductions and applied to the development of all options.

If Package 3 was taken forward, there would be an opportunity as a major infrastructure project in Scotland to strongly support decarbonisation of the construction sector. Application of PAS2080: Carbon Management in Buildings and Infrastructure to all schemes and all suppliers will help to systematically address whole life carbon emissions. This should include stretching carbon emissions reduction targets for suppliers, and consideration of carbon neutral standards (such as PAS 2060 - Carbon Neutrality Standard and Certification) for any suppliers managing the network beyond 2045.

The impact of Package 3 on carbon emissions will depend on the methods used during construction. It is therefore recommended that innovative techniques and technologies are used where relevant to reduce emissions. These should be focused on optimising the design to build less and to consume less carbon intensive materials (such as asphalt, concrete and steel). For asphalt this could include lower temperature mixes, concrete with high cement replacement, and steel with high recycled content.

During construction, opportunities to reduce carbon emissions should be maximised, such as local sourcing, construction and logistics efficiencies, alternative modes of transport – for example rail rather than road, low emission vehicles, and low carbon fuels.

With regards maintenance, more resilient technology could be installed in the first instance to withstand climatic factors, subsequently making the option more resilient and requiring less maintenance. As techniques and technologies improve, it is recommended that these are adopted at the earliest possible stage, subject to a cost/benefit analysis being undertaken.

The principles of the circular economy should be applied during design, construction, and maintenance. For example, material reduction and reuse should be prioritised to comply with the waste management hierarchy, and opportunities should be sought to recondition and use existing transport infrastructure where appropriate.

Criterion 5

Criterion and success factor

Criterion 5 is:

Extent to which land use change associated with the package mitigates carbon emissions and contributes to carbon storage and sequestration.

Success factor:

5a. Supports the protection and development of carbon sinks, and takes appropriate measures to maximise carbon sequestration, taking account of wider ecosystem services/natural capital.

Geographic and environmental context

Table 7.12 outlines the geographic and environmental context against criterion 5 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of each of the rural sections.

Table 7.12: Geographic and environmental context of Package 3 study area against Criterion 5, Success Factor 5a. Supports the protection and development of carbon sinks, and takes appropriate measures to maximise carbon sequestration, taking account of wider ecosystem services
Package 3 Study Area	Geographic and Environmental Context
Hardmuir - Forres	- Ancient Woodland: 4,022.31 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 899.44 hectares - Peatland: Three pockets of Class 1 (nationally important carbon-rich soils, deep peat and priority peatland habitat), and seven pockets of Class 3 (Dominant vegetation cover is not priority peatland habitat but is associated with wet and acidic type). - Local Landscape Area (LLA): 2 LLA – Burghead Coast and Findhorn Valley and the Wooded Estates.
Forres - Elgin	- Ancient Woodland: 2,801.65 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 445.07 hectares - Peatland: Six pockets of Class 1 (nationally important carbon-rich soils, deep peat, and priority peatland habitat), and 15 pockets of Class 3 (Dominant vegetation cover is not priority peatland habitat but is associated with wet and acidic type). - Local Landscape Area (LLA): Five LLA – Culbin to Burghead Coast, Quarrelwood, Pluscarden Valley, Burghead to Lossiemouth Coast and Cluny Hill
Elgin-Lhanbryde	- Ancient Woodland: 118.63 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 43.41 hectares - Peatland: One pocket of Class 3 (Dominant vegetation cover is not priority peatland habitat but is associated with wet and acidic type). - Local Landscape Area (LLA): One LLA – Lossiemouth to Portgordon Coast
Lhanbryde - Mosstodloch	- Ancient Woodland: 1,417.40 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 194.17 hectares - Peatland: One pocket of Class 3 (Dominant vegetation cover is not priority peatland habitat but is associated with wet and acidic type). - Local Landscape Area (LLA): Two LLA - Lossiemouth to Portgordon Coast and The Spey Valley
Mosstodloch - Fochabers	- Ancient Woodland: 14.72 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 10.33 hectares - Local Landscape Area (LLA): Three LLA – The Spey Valley, Lower Spey and Gordon Castle Policies, and Lossiemouth to Portgordon Coast.
Fochabers – Keith	- Ancient Woodland: 3,455.24 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 510.28 hectares - Peatland: 20 pockets of Class 1 (nationally important carbon-rich soils, deep peat and priority peatland habitat), and 24 pockets of Class 3 (Dominant vegetation cover is not priority peatland habitat but is associated with wet and acidic type). - Local Landscape Area (LLA): Four LLA – The Spey Valley, Lower Spey and Gordon Castle Policies, Lossiemouth to Portgordon Coast, and Portgordon to Cullen Coast.
Keith - Huntly	- Ancient Woodland: 2,431.69 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 1,231.92 hectares - Peatland: 22 pockets of Class 1 (nationally important carbon-rich soils, deep peat and priority peatland habitat), and 91 pockets of Class 3 (Dominant vegetation cover is not priority peatland habitat but is associated with wet and acidic type). - Local Landscape Area (LLA): Three LLA – Deveron Valley, Portgordon to Cullen Coast and North Aberdeenshire Coast.
Huntly - Inverurie	- Ancient Woodland: 2,417.49 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 2,143.32 hectares - Peatland: 22 pockets of Class 1 (nationally important carbon-rich soils, deep peat and priority peatland habitat), one pocket of Class 2 (nationally important carbon-rich soils, deep peat and priority peatland habitat) and 20 pockets of Class 3 (Dominant vegetation cover is not priority peatland habitat but is associated with wet and acidic type). - Local Landscape Area (LLA): Two LLA – Bennachie and Deveron Valley
Inverurie - Kintore	- Ancient Woodland: 222.28 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 177.60 hectares
Kintore - Blackburn	- Ancient Woodland: 281.39 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 112.75 hectares - Peatland: One pocket of Class 3 (Dominant vegetation cover is not priority peatland habitat but is associated with wet and acidic type).
Blackburn – Craibstone Junction	- Ancient Woodland: 222.28 hectares - Native Woodland Survey for Scotland: 177.60 hectares

Package 3 criterion 5 assessment

The transport options within Package 3 are solely infrastructure-led and do not explicitly include the provision of public realm improvements to green space, or blue or green infrastructure assets. Therefore, it is not possible to confirm if Package 3 would have a positive impact on land use change, carbon storage and sequestration.

Package 3 will likely have a negative environmental effect on the storage and sequestration of carbon within natural ecosystems, particularly resulting from the inclusion of the targeted road safety improvements. However, due to limited design information the extent of any effect is uncertain.

All the options would be developed in accordance with the relevant standards and relevant Scottish Government and Transport Scotland policies and plans. The scale of the effects would be subject to detailed design and the location of the options being determined.

Package 3 criterion 5 recommendations

Consideration should be made during the site selection process to prioritise locations where there are likely to be minimal potential adverse effects on carbon storage and sequestration.

Existing carbon sinks should be enhanced wherever possible, to increase potential carbon sequestration as an integral part of the package, particularly relating to peatland restoration and wetland enhancement.

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