Counterfactual survey
Introduction
As with all evaluations, it was important to develop and understand the counterfactual situation. In this case the counterfactual is a similar area that has not had a new station and acts as a proxy for what would have happened in the Reston area if the new station had not been built. Future evaluations will therefore compare the impacts in Reston against the impacts in a similar area elsewhere.
Ancrum, a small village within the Scottish Borders, was selected as the counterfactual study area. Ancrum is situated within the central part of the Scottish Borders area, between Jedburgh and St Boswells. Similar to Reston before the station opened, there is no rail access in the village, with the closest station located 12 miles away at Tweedbank. Population numbers are also similar to Reston.
Consistent with the approach to the Reston resident survey, an expanded survey area was chosen to capture an appropriate sample size. The counterfactual survey was again delivered as a CATI survey, and while there was consistency in some of the questions between this and the residents survey, the counterfactual was more focussed on current travel patterns.
Respondent Profile
In total, 101 respondents within the counterfactual area completed the survey. Of these, 63% (n=64) were female, 36% (n=36) were male, and 1% (n=1) preferred not to say. One respondent chose not to disclose their age but of the 100 who did:
- 7% (n=7) were aged 0-44
- 34% (n=34) were aged 45-64
- 59% (n=59) were aged 65+
As shown in Table 7, the vast majority of respondents (95%, n=95) came from a white ethnic group or background.
| Ethnic Group or Background | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| White (total) | 95 | 94% |
| Scottish | 68 | 67% |
| Other British | 24 | 24% |
| Other White Group/Background | 3 | 3% |
| Indian, Indian Scottish or Indian British | 1 | 1% |
| Don't know/Prefer not to say | 5 | 5% |
| Total | 101 | 100% |
Table 8 below outlines the annual incomes before tax of those who specified this.
| Annual Income | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Less than £10,000 | 11 | 19% |
| £10,001 - £20,000 | 21 | 36% |
| £21,001 - £30,000 | 13 | 22% |
| £30,001 - £40,000 | 8 | 14% |
| £40,001 - £50,000 | 1 | 2% |
| £50,001 - £60,000 | 0 | 7% |
| Over £60,000 | 4 | 12% |
| Total | 58 | 100% |
*A further 43 respondents either preferred not to disclose their annual income, or did not know this
Just over a quarter of all respondents (26%, n=26) indicated that they had a physical or mental health condition or illness that would last or was expected to last 12 months or more. Of these twenty-six, 54% (n=14) stated that their condition or illness impaired their mobility.
Over half of the total sample (59%, n=60) had a National Entitlement Card (NEC), while the majority of respondents (81%, n=82) had full access to a car. Only 9% (n=9) of respondents had no access to a car.