The Context for the Aviation Statement

The Scottish Government’s consultation document on developing an aviation strategy described policy responsibilities at a local, national and international level, and contained a detailed explanation of the importance of aviation to Scotland. It set out our legal and policy commitments on connectivity and emissions, which form the basis for the sections below. The consultation document also asked a series of questions about growing Scotland’s international connectivity; the transition to low and zero-emission aviation; domestic connectivity; and airfreight.

This Aviation Statement builds on the content of the consultation document and does not repeat previous material. The two documents should therefore be read in conjunction.

Fundamentally, Scotland's geographical location means that air services are essential for securing our place in the world by providing international and domestic connectivity. Strong international connections enable a flow of trade, investment, labour and visitors to Scotland, all of which benefit the Scottish economy as a whole.

Good domestic connectivity provides similar advantages at a local level. It also ensures the operation of essential routes between rural and island communities and the mainland; routes within those communities; and other domestic routes where rail does not yet provide the ability to do a day’s business and return the same day.

The Scottish Government’s policies are designed to encourage these benefits and to ensure they can be enjoyed by communities across the country. We do this by supporting international route development; directly and indirectly subsidising air travel in the Highlands and Islands; funding Highlands and Islands Airports Limited (HIAL) to operate 11 airports across Scotland; and, by helping to drive the transformation to net zero aviation. We also maintain a watching brief on major developments in the aviation sector in Scotland, including any possible changes in airline or airport ownership, to determine whether our policy interests may be affected.

A particularly welcome development since we launched our consultation is that the aviation sector’s efforts have, in general, led to a positive recovery from the impact of Covid, although significant challenges remain. Tangible progress has also been made in decarbonising aviation. These improvements are described below, followed by the specific actions the Scottish Government will take to encourage further progress.

Strong connectivity

The independent analysis of the responses to our consultation noted support for improving international connectivity as a means of delivering inclusive economic growth.

The consultation document provided concrete examples of the economic benefits of aviation to Scotland. For example, pre-Covid air transport was responsible for 0.3% of Scottish gross value added, around £400m, with an output of £2.5 billion or 0.6% of total output (as about half is used as an input to other sectors). Further, research conducted by Edinburgh Napier University identified air links as the most influential transport factor in the location decisions of most overseas-based businesses investing in the UK. 6,438 jobs in Scotland were announced by foreign direct investment projects during 2019 and Scotland's international exports (excluding oil and gas) were worth £33.8 billion in 2018.

Delivering excellent international connectivity for Scotland is the primary responsibility of the aviation sector, and involves airlines and airports working in partnership on a commercial basis. Despite the unprecedented disruption caused by the pandemic, there are positive signs of passengers returning, along with a growing confidence in the Scottish market. New routes have been launched from airports in Scotland and others have grown, however, there is still some way to go to attain pre-2019 passenger numbers. Further, levels of recovery from the impact of the pandemic vary across Scottish airports, with some recovering more quickly than others.

The Scottish Government is committed to working with airlines and Scotland's airports to help grow our international connectivity, while not returning to previous levels of emissions. Scotland’s International Strategy, published in January 2024, reaffirms our commitment to grow international connectivity. Our key aspiration is to help Scotland become at least as well connected as our peer nations and regions by growing demand for existing and new routes that are vital for inbound tourism, business connectivity and exports.

Transport Scotland leads on this aim, working with partners in VisitScotland and Scottish Development International, to provide route development support to airlines. This can entail cooperative marketing packages, market intelligence and data on the potential of the Scottish market. Our work is carried out strictly on an “airport-neutral” basis, which ensures that we do not act in a way that interferes in competition. The decision on where an airline flies to in Scotland rests entirely with the airline and we do not seek to influence that process.

In 2023 we supported the launch of new routes to Atlanta with Delta Air Lines, and Calgary with WestJet. Further developments in 2024 have seen JetBlue serve Scotland for the first time with their service to New York JFK, and WestJet resuming their services to Toronto and Halifax. It is important to recognise that many of these services will be operated using the latest generation aircraft, which are less polluting.

The routes that we continue to target are in line with the key markets for inbound tourism, business connectivity and export growth. Our route development work is informed by a number of Scottish Government strategies and plans, including A Trading Nation, and the main markets for inbound tourism.

Domestic connectivity

The responses to our aviation strategy consultation offered very mixed views on the air services required to best meet the needs of people living in and visiting the Highlands and Islands. There were also different opinions on how air services and fares should be managed.

Since our consultation closed, we have renewed and strengthened our subsidy of the Glasgow–Tiree, Barra and Campbeltown air services, which provide connectivity to various essential services. We have also extended our subsidy for the Dundee-London and the Wick–Aberdeen services, which are intended to stimulate local economic development. The Scottish Government recognises that, for some island and rural communities, there may need to be better engagement between local authorities and health boards regarding the health-related transportation of patients, staff and medicines. We will continue to monitor whether and how the Scottish Government could support this process.

Our Islands Connectivity Plan draft Strategic Approach recently closed to public consultation. It makes clear that aviation has the potential to play an increased role in island transport connectivity and that the Community Needs Assessments to be undertaken will take this role into account. This, and the actions outlined on decarbonisation below, will help to inform our commitment to work to decarbonise scheduled flights within Scotland by 2040.

Reducing emissions

The independent analysis of our public consultation highlighted strong support for decarbonising aviation, which is included within Scotland’s legal commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2045. Developing more efficient low and zero emission aircraft and investing in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which can significantly reduce emissions, were encouraged.

In the period since our consultation concluded, there have been several positive developments in what is a shared mission to drastically reduce aviation’s environmental impact. Progress has been made at the international, national and local level, and has involved airports, airlines and governmental bodies, demonstrating a broad commitment to make flying more sustainable. Equally, there is a widespread acknowledgement that more needs to be, and will be, done.

For the Scottish Government, there has to be a just transition to net zero. This means both the outcome – a fairer, greener future for all – and the process that must be undertaken in partnership with those affected by the transition. For this reason, we are working with the sector to explore the opportunities for economic growth in the transition to a climate resilient economy, including through the establishment of a SAF working group. This is discussed in more detail below.

The graph below demonstrates the scale of Scotland’s decarbonisation challenge. It shows that emissions from international flights are significantly higher than from domestic flights. Both have shown a welcome decline since 2017 i.e. before the impact of Covid, although emissions grew in 2022 as the sector recovered from the pandemic:

Source: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2022

Examples of the aviation sector’s recent actions to decarbonise are provided below, followed by examples of complementary work being undertaken by the Scottish Government and the wider public sector. It is crucial that all such activity amounts to a clear, coherent, credible and well-resourced pathway towards net zero.

• Aviation will only reach its net zero goal if meaningful action is taken at the global level. It is therefore welcome that the UN body ICAO established a long-term goal of net-zero CO2 emissions from aviation by 2050, and agreed a global vision to reduce CO2 emissions in international aviation by 5% by 2030, including through the use of SAF. The International Air Transport Association, which represents hundreds of airlines worldwide, also committed to attaining net zero by 2050.
• Significantly increasing SAF production and use is a prominent commitment in many net zero strategies, from a global to a local level. SAF will play a crucial role in reducing emissions over the short and medium term at least, until hydrogen, electric or hybrid aircraft become fully available for commercial routes. Both the EU and the UK Government will introduce a SAF mandate, while the United States is focusing on supply side incentives. SAF offers significant potential economic, as well as environmental, opportunities to businesses in the just transition to a net zero economy.
• Sustainable Aviation, a representative body for the UK aviation sector, published its updated ‘Net Zero Carbon Road-Map’ in 2023. The report contains a series of initiatives it considers will allow the UK aviation industry to deliver net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The report referenced “the biggest ever geographical airspace change in the UK”, led by NATS, which removed established air routes over Scotland and freed aircraft to choose their most direct flight path. It is estimated that development will save CO2 every year equivalent to the power used by some 3,500 family homes.
• Two airlines with a particularly strong presence in Scotland made announcements that should lead to significantly reduced emissions: Loganair’s goal is for its entire fleet to comprise zero-emission aircraft by 2040, while EasyJet’s ‘Path to Net Zero plan’ commits to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
• Airlines will be reliant on the development of low and zero emission aircraft to help achieve their decarbonisation targets. In January 2023, ZeroAvia flew the largest aircraft in the world to be powered by a hydrogen-electric engine. Small hydrogen aircraft such as the one test flown have the potential to be used on a range of intra-Scotland routes when they are certified by regulators.
• Loganair has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Cranfield Aerospace Solutions that aims to have the first operational hydrogen-electric aircraft flying in Kirkwall by 2027. According to reports, this could become the world’s first commercial zero emission air service.

The Scottish Government, agencies and other public bodies have also continued to encourage aviation decarbonisation, in line with our legal commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2045. This includes both aviation-specific action and efforts to develop electric and hydrogen infrastructure more generally, infrastructure that will be required for low and zero emission flight:

• Ministers have established an expert working group on SAF to provide advice on possible policy options, recognising that many relevant levers are reserved. It involves stakeholders from the aviation sector and officials from across the Scottish Government and agencies, and is taking account of a SAF supply chain mapping study published by Scottish Enterprise. The working group’s recommendations will help to inform the Scottish Government’s Climate Change Plan and, given the potential economic opportunity of SAF, the Transport Just Transition Plan.
• Working with other governments in the UK as part of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Authority, we have set a tighter limit on emissions including from short haul and domestic aviation emissions. This incentivises aircraft operators to cut their carbon footprint. As part of the Authority, we are also working with the UK Government to consider how the ETS and CORSIA (ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) can most effectively operate together.
• Aberdeen and Glasgow airports have conducted a feasibility study to establish a multi-modal Hydrogen Innovation Hub which, if successful, would allow Glasgow to be the first regional commercial airport to produce and use green hydrogen. As part of the Scottish Government’s Hydrogen Innovation Scheme, the project was awarded £150,000 for a study to test the feasibility of a hydrogen production storage and distribution hub at Glasgow Airport. The Scottish Government has also provided grant funding to Edinburgh Airport to support its low carbon energy system.
• Highlands and Islands Airports Limited (HIAL) is leading on our commitment to make the Highlands and Islands a zero emission aviation region. Following the publication of its Sustainability Strategy and completion of a Net Zero Roadmap and energy audit at Inverness Airport, HIAL continues with its programme of activity to decarbonise airport operations and infrastructure.
• Transport Scotland worked with Skills Development Scotland to publish a study baselining the skills required for the transition to zero emission aviation and aerospace.

We will also continue to encourage the UK Government to ensure that its Jet Zero aviation strategy benefits Scotland. The strategy contains several measures that will directly affect the sector in Scotland and that are relevant to our climate change goals. For example, it sets a target for UK domestic flights to reach net zero by 2040 and contains an aspiration for zero emission routes connecting different parts of the UK by 2030. This overlaps with our commitment to help decarbonise scheduled flights within Scotland by 2040 and we will therefore work to ensure that Scotland’s relevant strengths – for example, in renewable energy, hydrogen and trialling of new aircraft – are fully utilised.

Scottish Ministers have already written to their UK counterparts to note that Jet Zero contains an ambition for zero emission airport operations by 2040 in England, and to seek assurances that any associated financial support would be available on an equal basis to airports in Scotland. Ministers also separately highlighted the aviation sector’s clear and repeated calls for the UK Government to provide some kind of price support mechanism for SAF, and sought assurances that all efforts were being made to secure for Scotland a share of the many jobs and economic benefits that SAF could provide.

Jet Zero sets out a CO2 emissions reduction trajectory, with UK-wide targets to reduce in-sector emissions to 35.4 MtCO2e (CO2 equivalent emissions) in 2030, 28.4 MtCO2e in 2040, and 19.3 MtCO2e in 2050. We expect aviation emissions in Scotland to follow a similar trajectory and set out below how we can contribute to this target.