Baseline Summary

The baseline conditions for each of the SEA topics is summarised in this section. Additional information is presented in Appendix 3.

Climatic Factors

  • Over the last few decades Scotland has experienced a warming trend, shifting rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels; changes that are projected to continue and intensify, aggravating the impact of climate change on the natural and human environment, including port infrastructure and ferry services within the wider transport network.
  • In 2021, the transport sector represented approximately 28% of Scotland’s GHG emissions (ferries share of those transport emissions has been estimated at around 2%). Without the influence of mitigation policies, a relatively small increase is projected up to 2045, driven by economic and population growth.
  • The Scottish Government aims to ensure that Scotland is resilient and well-adapted to climate change, and that net-zero emissions of GHGs is achieved by 2045, including an increase of low emission ferries (government owned) to 30%, and a wide adoption of low emission solutions at Scottish ports by 2032. NPF4 calls for the recognition of global climate emergency as a priority in all plans and decisions.

Air Quality

  • Emissions of priority air pollutants have gradually reduced over the years, which has partly been attributed to reductions in road transport emissions. However, in 2022, the Scottish transport sector, including shipping, was still considered to account for a considerable proportion of these.
  • Without the influence of mitigation policies, it would be reasonable to assume that a relatively small increase in air pollutant emissions from the transport sector is anticipated up to 2045, driven by economic and population growth.
  • Air quality objectives and limit values aim to reduce emissions which are potentially harmful to human health and the environment. The Scottish Government calls for the application of a sustainable travel hierarchy and the adoption of a sustainable investment hierarchy, to contribute to complying with air quality limit values. NPF4 requires the minimisation of emissions from new development and that air pollution is taken into account in development planning and management.

Noise

  • Road-based transport is responsible for approximately 90% of transport noise. In Scotland, there are a number of major roads and railways where action plans for noise management have been drawn, including in connection to ports and harbours in Scottish mainland. There is a lack of knowledge of the impacts of anthropogenic sound in the marine environment. Shipping and offshore construction are among the primary sources of underwater noise in Scotland, and have potential to adversely affect marine biodiversity.
  • Within a context of population and economic growth, it is reasonable to anticipate a future increase in noise generation, both airborne and underwater.
  • Although there are no specific airborne / underwater noise targets, airborne and underwater noise management (including from transport-related sources) is required by existing UK and Scottish policy.

Soils / Sediment

  • There is a diverse range of soils present in Scotland, including carbon-rich soils of high value. Erosion and compaction are two of the main risks affecting Scottish soils, to which transport infrastructure can contribute.
  • Whilst the majority of the Scottish coastline has retained its natural character and 75% is considered broadly stable, the exposure of soils and coastline to climate change impacts could lead to future soil and sediment loss.
  • The protection of carbon rich soils, restoration of peatlands and reduction of soil disturbance from development are required by Scottish policy.

Water Environment (fresh and marine)

  • The majority of Scotland’s water bodies, particularly coastal and marine, are classified to have an overall good condition, and whilst oil spills or pollution by persistent contaminants appear to be problems of the past, marine litter is becoming increasingly problematic, with shipping being considered one of its sources, particularly in Scotland’s islands. On the other hand, flood risks are predominant along the coast in mainland Scotland, as well as in the islands.
  • Scotland’s water environment will continue to face pressure from climate change, which can affect both water quality and flood risk to human assets and nature.
  • There are a number of policy instruments that define water quality targets and call for pollution reduction, strengthening of flood risk resilience and a more efficient and sustainable use of water resources.

Biodiversity

  • Scotland hosts a biodiverse range of habitats and species, of which a considerable part is afforded legal protection. However, biodiversity in Scotland is in crisis due not only to the effects of climate change, but a number of human-driven pressures, such as changes in land use and urbanisation, including for transport infrastructure, over-exploitation, or introduction of invasive non-native species.
  • Scotland’s biodiversity will continue to face pressure from climate change, which can affect patterns of lifecycle events, as well as habitat degradation and species loss.
  • Existing policy aims for Scotland to be Nature Positive by 2030 and to have restored and regenerated biodiversity across the country by 2045. Overall protection and enhancement of biodiversity is required, including through strengthened nature networks and nature-based solutions.

Cultural Heritage

  • Scotland has a rich, diverse and extensive historic environment, which is afforded protection through over 58,000 designations. However, 95% of Scotland’s historic environment remains undesignated, particularly in the marine environment.
  • Main pressures on the historic environment include land use changes, societal change and climate change, with the latter expected to continue exerting pressure in the long-term. In the marine environment, natural processes and activities with potential to disturb the seabed or affect local sediment processes can particularly affect the historic environment around Scotland’s coast and seas.
  • The historic environment is protected through legal designations and policies that aim to recognise, conserve, sustainable manage and enhance Scotland’s historic environment.

Landscape

  • Scotland has a diverse character of landscapes and seascapes across its territory, characterised by a sense of openness, high intervisibility, perceived naturalness, valued remoteness and adapted infrastructure that connects scattered settlements. Landscape and seascape qualities are afforded protection through a number of statutory and non-statutory designations. However, existing pressures exist, including changes in land use and incremental development, to which transport infrastructure can contribute.
  • Given the intrinsic relationship between landscapes and the wider environmental values, the future evolution of landscapes is expected to respond to changes in these, including in response to climate change impacts.
  • Existing policy requires the protection and enhancement of the character, setting and identify of settlements, and species qualities of Scotland’s landscapes.

Material Assets

  • Transport infrastructure in Scotland includes over 57,000 km of road network, over 2,700 km of rail network, airport infrastructure at 16 different locations, including four major airports, and over 200 ports and harbours. Environmental problems are related to air pollution, traffic congestion, barriers to active travel and vulnerability to climate change (including in relation to flood risks), and although progress is being made on the decarbonisation of the sector, it still heavily relies on fossil fuels. In addition, construction of infrastructure, including for transport, has a significant material footprint, which has been associated to biodiversity loss and water stress.
  • The use and development of transport infrastructure is projected to increase in line with population and economic growth, although this is anticipated to consider existing decarbonisation targets. Climate change and continued development will continue to pose a threat to the integrity of material assets.
  • Existing policy aims for a net zero and sustainable growth of infrastructure assets. There is an overall aim for Scotland to become a fully circular economy by 2045, with investment being directed by principles of sustainability and in line with the waste hierarchy.

Population and Human Health

  • Scotland’s population in 2022 exceeded 5.4 million, and whilst the overall population of Scotland’s islands has grown over the last 20 years, there is considerable variation between island regions, which have mainly suffered the loss of working age populations. Although 2022 health statistics report that the majority of Scotland’s population is in good health condition, there are reported challenges associated with life expectancy and inequality, including in relation to access to services. The open mixed economic character of Scotland is also represented in island regions to some extent, which are considered to particularly rely on marine economic activities.
  • Population is anticipated to age across Scotland within the next 20 years, and whilst economic growth, particularly in marine sectors are anticipated to expand, population losses are predicted in a number of areas, including island regions, which could challenge the viability communities, businesses and services.
  • The government aims for Scotland to thrive across economic, social and environmental dimensions, and there are a number of policies aimed at promoting health and wellbeing, as well as the sustainable development of economic sectors.